Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We need this! I'm guessing a small rain wrapped tornado? 

 

https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/wind-flips-car-over-ohio-freeway/507-bdd319f9-20bb-4f8e-8238-ed65ddee0ba4

Likely a rain-wrapped tor.  If it was a MB that strong to flip cars, the other ones nearby would have at least been pushed sideways.

Nothing I find more frightening in wx is not having good VIS when a tor may be present.  I've been in that situation before in OK (the day of the El Reno monster in May 2013), and it was a harrowing experience to say the least.
 

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is ugly 

https://x.com/steveoweathaguy/status/2087291143151395060?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Pffttt!  Lame X post. He does not specify how *strong* El Nino was those years.  That makes a big difference.  And there have been 10 El Nino events since 1994, so where are the other 7 for comparison?

2002-03 was strong El Nino.  How did that winter do? /S  2009-10 was strong El Nino, what happened that winter? /S

We should be looking at very strong El Ninos only.  We've have 4 since the 1950s, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16.  It is a mixed bag, leaning toward below avg snowfall, but there was the Feb 1983 blockbuster and also Jan 2016.  So it does not mean it is a complete loss.

Also, sample size, 4 very strong El Ninos in 70 years does not tell us the full gamut of what can happen, so don't let the @CoastalWxDebbie Downer attitude rule here!   

There are no less than a dozen other global and regional oscillations going on and how they interact w/ El Nino can and does lead to the unexpected.  Case in point, normally in very strong El Nino, Cali is soaked and the Pac NW is dry.  Well, that did not occur in 2015-16, it was the exact opposite!

Also, the wx/atmosphere does not work linearly.  In other words, just b/c this may be the strongest El Nino in modern times, does not mean you simply extrapolate in one direction based off other very strong events, esp. when it comes to regional sensible wx and the specifics.