Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Typhoon Tip]

The extended operational GFS and Can are trying to go hot but ... mm, the indices say no. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Plus ... we've gone and made 'merica so goddamn great again ...Measles cases have soared to a 35-year high.   Fuck yeah!

[Psychguy]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plus ... we've gone and made 'merica so goddamn great again ...Measles cases have soared to a 35-year high.   Fuck yeah!

And don’t forget explosive diarrhea from produce… good times, indeed!

[SouthCoastMA]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plus ... we've gone and made 'merica so goddamn great again ...Measles cases have soared to a 35-year high.   Fuck yeah!

That's not just a Merica thing. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plus ... we've gone and made 'merica so goddamn great again ...Measles cases have soared to a 35-year high.   Fuck yeah!

Could be worse 6 yrs ago we were all locked away fearing for our lives

[Brian5671]

Another great day here 78 and low dews-AC remains off

[Brewbeer]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Could be worse 6 yrs ago we were all locked away fearing for our lives

were you really that scared ?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Could be worse 6 yrs ago we were all locked away fearing for our lives

I don’t think anyone that knew what was really going on was scared. I mean lol man 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think anyone that knew what was really going on was scared. I mean lol man 

Don't make me go back to the old threads. You were wearing covid eye goggles.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

were you really that scared ?

no but the media went into overdrive-people spraying their mail lol

[dendrite]

Ok ok ok

The ratio of weather:political posts is taking a nosedive. Let’s at least sorta get back on track.

79.7/50.6 on the day here. Yore New England summer day. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Up , up, and away !!

[Psychguy]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Up , up, and away !!

Western Atlantic ridge/Bermuda High backing up against the East Coast? Novice here… just speculation/guessing?! Gorgeous day down here in Phila. 84… might eke out 85 after a low of 65 this AM… DPs holding in the mid 50’s.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Psychguy said:

Western Atlantic ridge/Bermuda High backing up against the East Coast? Novice here… just speculation/guessing?!

Yes very good synopsis. Please come to front of the class and keep Kenny in the corner with dunce cap on .  Ridge trough ridge . It’s a warm to hot at times and humid pattern . Also with trough in Midwest if there were to be some home brew tropical system it could get pulled north in some capacity . That look verbatim is ACATT worse nightmare 

[Damage In Tolland]

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS retrogrades the western ridge a bit, but it still looks a bit troughy in the OH valley. AIFS gets the trough and WAR more west. Regardless, it’s mostly chamber weather for the next 7-10 days.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes very good synopsis. Please come to front of the class and keep Kenny in the corner with dunce cap on .  Ridge trough ridge . It’s a warm to hot at times and humid pattern . Also with trough in Midwest if there were to be some home brew tropical system it could get pulled north in some capacity . That look verbatim is ACATT worse nightmare 

It's probably 82/78 a Bahama Blue circulation mode... 

"Heat" is in the DP in that scenario, reflected in average highs over sweltering lows.   Welcome to Nassau 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't think the trough parks on the EC tho... That almost never happens in JJA climo pattern/records.   

In fact, models will tend to over amplify that trough at this range, while getting the western N/A ridge probably closer to accurate compared to handling the east.  Which ends up just being a weakness with a 500 mb flow paralleling the coast.  That's why I suspect if that D8-14 range CPC temperature probability aligns with the pattern, BB is what we'd end up with in reality. 

Having said all that... if the CPC PNA outlook is correct,

 

the correction vector is probably more WAR influence - if that starts emerging more and more in outlooks, that wouldn't surprise me...  but WAR is also not really eye-stingin' heat, either.   It goes sorta like this:  Sonoran Release 102/62,  WAR 92/72, Bahama Blue 82/78

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Ok ok ok

The ratio of weather:political posts is taking a nosedive. Let’s at least sorta get back on track.

79.7/50.6 on the day here. Yore New England summer day. 

everyone knows life would be better if we exterminated the left side of the bell curve

[rimetree]

Off to north shore of Kauai tomorrow for a couple of weeks. Maybe get a little brush by Fausto but looks to be a remnant by the time it gets there. Doesn't look like the greatest beach weather at first but hopefully dries out a bit by next weekend.

[forkyfork]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

everyone knows life would be better if we exterminated the left side of the bell curve

imagine speeding through a checkout line because everyone in the store can understand the text of a coupon