Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Typhoon Tip]

Today could rival some of the bigger diurnal recoveries since winter ended.  Which is rare by the time we get to even June, let alone latter July...

But it was 48 to 52 at a lot of these in-between lower el NWS sites on their interactive page, yet many of these sites are already up 25 F over those lows.   No cloud/not enough to appreciably offset heating and still solar max lasing by a relentless sun...  should be able to put up some 35+ deltas.

[WxWatcher007]

@weatherwiz you gotta remember it's July--you don't get a Beryl walking through the door often. Climo this time of year is for slow developing, messy homebrew off a stalled front and/or ULL. 

I have no doubt given the trend in organization today that this will become a TS. The question is whether it can fully expel the dry air that was giving it fits yesterday and keep building deep convection near the center. Proximity to land is an issue and northerly shear doesn't help with aligning the vortex. 

But you don't need a pristine environment for gradual organization and intensification. This isn't a horrible look. 

 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

The season is not record hot/cold until it's over.  Let's' see how the remainder plays out.

Agree.  July is running 2.4 AN so far.  If the month finishes at that mark, JJ 2026 would be 5th warmest of 29, respectable but no record. 
Looking at the rest of July, I'm guessing we'll be 1-2° AN at the finish.

[kdxken]

On 7/16/2026 at 7:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

What a torch summer !

 

 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@weatherwiz you gotta remember it's July--you don't get a Beryl walking through the door often. Climo this time of year is for slow developing, messy homebrew off a stalled front and/or ULL. 

I have no doubt given the trend in organization today that this will become a TS. The question is whether it can fully expel the dry air that was giving it fits yesterday and keep building deep convection near the center. Proximity to land is an issue and northerly shear doesn't help with aligning the vortex. 

But you don't need a pristine environment for gradual organization and intensification. This isn't a horrible look. 

 

It's certainly not a horrible look but its pretty far off from getting to the point of being like, "yeah this is a bit concerning" and something which may result in stronger storm impacts (something like increasing concern for power outages and surge/coastal flooding). There are a lot of "if this happens" involved here. Certainly worth watching, but if I had to lean towards a direction of what this becomes, it would be minimal impact...nothing more than what this area sees with daily thunderstorms which produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. maybe a bit more of a FF risk from torrential downpours and maybe some slightly stronger wind gusts.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Beer

I hate when he posts these…lots of short record periods or shoddy datasets at many of these sites. That’s not a record for MHT either.

[dendrite]

“Coldest 7/20 of our lives”

Chilly, but what are we doing here?

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's certainly not a horrible look but its pretty far off from getting to the point of being like, "yeah this is a bit concerning" and something which may result in stronger storm impacts (something like increasing concern for power outages and surge/coastal flooding). There are a lot of "if this happens" involved here. Certainly worth watching, but if I had to lean towards a direction of what this becomes, it would be minimal impact...nothing more than what this area sees with daily thunderstorms which produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. maybe a bit more of a FF risk from torrential downpours and maybe some slightly stronger wind gusts.

Oh yeah, we don't disagree there. Would need to see the center stay south and wrap convection to put anything other than a minor/modest ceiling on the table. 

[SouthCoastMA]

And its already 77. I must have slept through the coldest portion of 7/20 in my lifetime

[Torch Tiger]

we survived the cold of 7/20..whew

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lots of low dew periods since May. That’s really what most care about. 

[Damage In Tolland]

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Beer

I hate when he posts these…lots of short record periods or shoddy datasets at many of these sites. That’s not a record for MHT either.

There’s a reason why he could never keep a Met job lol

[Torch Tiger]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a reason why he could never keep a Met job lol

Yeah only ~30 years on-air 

[dendrite]

I always liked TK, but he’s def ACATT and definitely leans on the denying side.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Meanwhile, could be some fun in western zones tomorrow.  Gotta get that warm front and its clouds through.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Meanwhile, could be some fun in western zones tomorrow.  Gotta get that warm front and its clouds through.

Another decent looking setup when you look at dynamics, however, doesn't look like there is going to be any room for cloud breaks tomorrow. Quite the soupy airmass, warm front nearby, and no capping. Going to be lots of clouds and pop up showers. Timing of the front/forcing not idea either...but...there may be a shot for some strong storms on Wednesday, especially east of the River. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I always liked TK, but he’s def ACATT and definitely leans on the denying side.

You should hear our chairlift chats, ha.  Guy is a ton of fun to be around on the mountain, but we do get into it on some of that stuff.   A lot of it is just not wanting to “the good ol’ days” to be done… but we get that vibe on here sometimes.  That by admitting it’s warming means you think it’ll never get cold or snowy again.  It’s a “holding out hope” type vibe I get.

[Damage In Tolland]

Did @radarmanmove to Texas ?

[Torch Tiger]

Tomorrow looked like crap for convection, Wednesday was  the lone longshot hope

[Typhoon Tip]

So what does ACATT mean to this social media depot ?

 

[radarman]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did @radarmanmove to Texas ?

Yes in April and we'll see for how long.  "Enjoying" low 100s this week, but headed back to the valley and maybe get a beach day on the cape this weekend.  We still haven't been as hot as what SNE has been this year, and much less humid and smoky too.  Plus the super nino might take some of the sting off missing winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

47 minutes ago, radarman said:

Yes in April and we'll see for how long.  "Enjoying" low 100s this week, but headed back to the valley and maybe get a beach day on the cape this weekend.  We still haven't been as hot as what SNE had been this year, and much less humid and smoky too.  Plus the super nino might take some of the sting off missing winter.

Glad you were able to get out and escape the leftism of New England. Wish we could . This winter it’s entirely possible you get more snow than we do !

[radarman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This winter it’s entirely possible you get more snow than we do !

Very, very doubtful.  Maybe some TORs here though, 12/26/15 featured a violent EF4 in DFW.

S Rockies hopefully will cash in on Nino climo, not too far of a flight / drive from here to N NM and SW CO.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

Yes in April and we'll see for how long.  "Enjoying" low 100s this week, but headed back to the valley and maybe get a beach day on the cape this weekend.  We still haven't been as hot as what SNE has been this year, and much less humid and smoky too.  Plus the super nino might take some of the sting off missing winter.

Unfortunate. I enjoyed your posts. Stop in once a year when we have a convection threat.

[radarman]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Unfortunate. I enjoyed your posts. Stop in once a year when we have a convection threat.

I was on eastern Long Island the weekend before last and they got absolutely rocked with severe on the 4th of July.  Damage in every yard, with multiple measured gusts of 87.  I saw Hartford (edit Bristol) got 3" hail that day too.  Better than anything I've seen nearby this spring.  BTown has been hit a few times too as usual.

Anyway I'm still involved in running the UMass radar and following wx back there closely.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad you were able to get out and escape the leftism of New England. Wish we could . This winter it’s entirely possible you get more snow than we do !

You are free to leave anytime you want, bruh’!  I bet there’s a few on here that would even come help load up the moving van for you. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You are free to leave anytime you want, bruh’!  I bet there’s a few on here that would even come help load up the moving van for you. 

Give a few examples !

[JACKASS]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Give a few examples !

Hi

[Brewbeer]

Quote

Glad you were able to get out and escape the leftism of New England. 

I'd love to respond to the so-called "leftism" comment but I know we aren't allowed to be political in the weather subforums (unless of course you support the side of the Epstein Administration).

bring back PR and bring this "leftism" bullshit to where it belongs so it can be properly addressed outside of the weatherside

[JACKASS]

5 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

I'd love to respond to the so-called "leftism" comment but I know we aren't allowed to be political in the weather subforums (unless of course you support the side of the Epstein Administration).

bring back PR and bring this "leftism" bullshit to where it belongs so it can be properly addressed outside of the weatherside

PR was a mess, but it did serve its purpose!