Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It all went outside in the snow . Put everything into coolers in the snow which lasted for several days and even when it melted it still stayed in the 40’s mainly 

Uhmm you failed to answer the question...

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It all went outside in the snow . Put everything into coolers in the snow which lasted for several days and even when it melted it still stayed in the 40’s mainly 

Yeah, as long as it’s warm enough inside not to freeze pipes… cooler weather is definitely an easier time to lose power.  Especially after an October snowstorm because it won’t be deep cold afterwards.  Just cold enough to put perishables outside in the snow.

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Uhmm you failed to answer the question...

The question remains...did you send out HAPPY POWER OUTTAGE CARDS?? LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, as long as it’s warm enough inside not to freeze pipes… cooler weather is definitely an easier time to lose power.  Especially after an October snowstorm because it won’t be deep cold afterwards.  Just cold enough to put perishables outside in the snow.

I slept in several fleece jackets and winter hat. There a few days where my breath was visible inside the house towards the last couple days 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

What a top 10 summer day today was! 

[weatherwiz]

46 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Difficult to say without seeing a photo....Hopefully it is not a deer tick...

I don't think its a deer tick. This doesn't have the shape of a tick. I will try and catch a photo when I am outside tomorrow somehow. But I just did a google search (didn't try before because everytime you put something into google, the result usually is you're going to die). Anyways, I found a photo someone posted on Facebook and this kind of looks like it. The comments are no help

Since I am posting someone's finger, here is the link so they get credit 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/485390939752444/posts/1043588527266013/

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I slept in several fleece jackets and winter hat. There a few days where my breath was visible inside the house towards the last couple days 

Made me think of this...

..one of the best Christmas movies of all time..

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Figured @vortex95 would appreciate this SLC met using a photo of snowy mountains for the all-time hottest temperature since 1874… could’ve gone with flames and death, instead a tranquil April day photo of the Wasatch, lol.

 

I think the evidence grows that there is a population in NWS that just doesn’t like heat and doesn’t want to hear about it.  They lean less, and insults intelligence in a way, as tho we don’t see right through it…

They downplay it or mock it or do things like that because what’s really going on is their personal attitudes and perspectives overwhelm and it bleeds in - I get it no humans perfectly objective…

But it goes the other way too

I don’t care what these fucks feel  that don’t like hyperbole about heat and extremes tho.  

Guess what ? it is that bad and it needs to be hotly expressed no pun intended, because nobody is paying attention enough to what is clearly an existential threat.  We are in a physical mass extinction event, and there is no other culprit that science can physically connect that isn’tglobal warming.
Fuck it talking bricks

[Typhoon Tip]

Well, that’s a hot deal on Tuesday

Nother night that night whence the temperature doesn’t drop very much

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I slept in several fleece jackets and winter hat. There a few days where my breath was visible inside the house towards the last couple days 

That October 2011 event makes you remember when "snow maps" were still a new thing, and Met offices didn't know how to use them exactly, especially in the shoulder seasons.  "Dumb guy snow output" ended up being too low.

HWO

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON

SATURDAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN A WINTER STORM

WATCH. WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY

From AFD

THE GFS DUMB GUY SNOW OUTPUT IS 1-4 INCHES NORTH...10-15 IN HIGHER

TRRN OF VT/MA/NY AND 6-8 ON VLY FLOORS. YES THESE ARE WINTER EQ

AND THURSDAYS EVENT IT WAS ADVERTISING 4-8 INCHES AND MOST AREAS

SAW 1-3. ITS NAM COUNTER PART IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1-2 IN

CATSKILLS AND 8 IN LITCHFIELD

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I slept in several fleece jackets and winter hat. 

shit, that is @weatherwiz daily attire (in the summer)

[weatherwiz]

Kind of shocked we don't have a general thunder area for Wednesday. I still think south of the Pike has chance for storms during the day and there would be a threat for strong/severe with any storms

[Typhoon Tip]

At first glance the 500 mb height cinema's structural handling looks like roasting in the Lakes then shunting S of us.. but idiosyncratically air mass leads the SE Canadian SPC flex that happens later this week so a tranche of the heat burst (modeled 500 mb soaring to nearly 606 over IA!) gets pulled around that large scale change/leads.  So...

Tomorrow's about +19C at 850 mb with ample W to WNW boundary layer flow tumbling over the terrain... After a morning of full sun, we're definitely mixing through that layer.   The adiabats would support a 1000 mb T of 96 ... so the 2-m slope T is probably close to 100F ... So NWS issuance of headlines.   Using that as metric ..this is classic over topper.   Probably falls short of a heat wave, but it will be intense for the probably thu Wed.  Tuesday night lows may remain impressively elevated.  This is different than the heat wave in that their be more breeze so that's a blessing. 

[Great Snow 1717]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the evidence grows that there is a population in NWS that just doesn’t like heat and doesn’t want to hear about it.  They lean less, and insults intelligence in a way, as tho we don’t see right through it…

They downplay it or mock it or do things like that because what’s really going on is their personal attitudes and perspectives overwhelm and it bleeds in - I get it no humans perfectly objective…

But it goes the other way too

I don’t care what these fucks feel  that don’t like hyperbole about heat and extremes tho.  

Guess what ? it is that bad and it needs to be hotly expressed no pun intended, because nobody is paying attention enough to what is clearly an existential threat.  We are in a physical mass extinction event, and there is no other culprit that science can physically connect that isn’tglobal warming.
Fuck it talking bricks

While there are still some holdouts regarding global warming I think it is obvious that global warming is taking place.  And yes the threat is looming..

[wx_observer]

Don't see this too often:

[weatherwiz]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting heat in here despite the 500 mb height structural cinema... interesting.

Tomorrow's about 18 to 19C at 850 mb with ample W to WNW BL flow tumbling over the terrain... after a morning of full sun, so we're definitely mixing through that layer.  The adiabats would support a 1000 mb T of 96 ... so the 2-m slope T is probably close to 100F ... So NWS issuance of headlines.   Using that as metric ..this is classic over topper.   Probably falls short of a heat wave, but it will be intense for the probably thu Wed.  Tuesday night lows may remain impressively elevated.

NBM argues BOS may not fall below 80F. BDL would have a legit shot of trying or even breaking their all time overnight low record

[CoastalWx]

Tomorrow night is interesting as far as temperatures go. We are warming aloft.  With the flow southwest to west, places like BOS and BDL probably won’t drop all that much.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some folks may get a minimum heat wave.  I might score another low 90s day... maybe 2.

 

Good for the pool though

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow night is interesting as far as temperatures go. We are warming aloft.  With the flow southwest to west, places like BOS and BDL probably won’t drop all that much.

It's a gusty flow too. Going to remain well mixed, especially with the front approaching

[ineedsnow]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well if you like outages don’t worry. A bona fide hurricane up here would collapse the grid.  

We need this so bad.. I would love to.see peoples reactions around here.. I lost power for 10 days in 2011 and didn't bother me really.. that storm was beyond awesome.. once we started as snow and saw branches starting to sag.. i knew it was going to be something great.. almost constant shotgun blast living near the woods and seeing trees fall all over was awesome.. even had a tree on a power line catch fire.. i ended up calling it in and they said there was nothing they could do about it since they had so many calls. The neighborhood looked like a bomb went off the next morning.. Just a great experience overall and can't wait for another one.. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

While there are still some holdouts regarding global warming I think it is obvious that global warming is taking place.  And yes the threat is looming..

It's a dangerous time...

This is a perfect sort of historic storm unfolding.   We've created a civility protected from the problems in the environment,   meanwhile ... the relative advantages of that same protection does a couple of things that are big-time negative feedbacks.  

One ... blinds the same civility from experiencing, thus cannot as readily see nor believing the problem is real - "the until it is too late"  trope unfortunately becomes most apropos. Contributing here, I firmly believe that the limitation of a humanity to dimensionalize at such large scales ... is also an offset competition to competency. 

Two, spoiled it's population (and leaders) into believing that not agreeing with science and empirical fact is an entitlement to do so - very odd.  Fake news and the tongue-in-cheek "alternate facts" that began 20 some years ago, isn't just a party trope. It's a fucking major problem.  And thus demonstrate no compunctions exercising entitlement whenever science informs their actions are the problem.

(One + Two )/ 2 = the mathematics of brickery

May also = a nice and tidy Fermi Paradox ... 

2023 demonstrated that the Earth lags in GW; the metaphor 'under tension' fits.  The rate at which the "Anthropocene" epoch has introduced it's loading into the system (you could argue this epoch began when "Lucy" first picked up a burning stick ... but the vast majority just in the last 3-or-so hundred years) has outpaced the system's ability to respond. After all, we are talking a whole planet. 

But that tension has been growing more and more taut.  As soon as background competing offsets falter just a little bit?  Booinnnng.   That .5C sudden globular scaled temperature responses taking place all at once ( in the spring that year) was an planet restoring; unilaterally, all systems of ocean, air and quasi coupled ocean-air systems.  Here's a thought ... when you consider the human experience, the event of a bomb going off is almost instant.  If you think of the planet as experiencing along geologic time spans, the 2023 was just as instantaneous.  That becomes an analog for a bomb going off.  Whole planets rising a half degree C something never before observed - the lack of recognition as a phenomenon is ... again, I believe the scale is too big to comprehend by too many

[WxWatcher007]

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We need this so bad.. I would love to.see peoples reactions around here.. I lost power for 10 days in 2011 and didn't bother me really.. that storm was beyond awesome.. once we started as snow and saw branches starting to sag.. i knew it was going to be something great.. almost constant shotgun blast living near the woods and seeing trees fall all over was awesome.. even had a tree on a power line catch fire.. i ended up calling it in and they said there was nothing they could do about it since they had so many calls. The neighborhood looked like a bomb went off the next morning.. Just a great experience overall and can't wait for another one.. 

 

I can already tell you that people will meh a hurricane all the way until landfall. And then complain they didn’t get the eyewall. 

[CoastalWx]

Might be a homebrew year later in the season with warm SSTs and troughs that start to develop and dig into Plains/Midwest.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can already tell you that people will meh a hurricane all the way until landfall. And then complain they didn’t get the eyewall. 

Let's say a 1938-style hurricane were to be possible (same track, strength, etc). There probably would be some people which take the threat seriously, however, I'm nervous the vast wouldn't. I would assume, however, mandatory evacuations would be ordered at least for the coast which would help but most people I would think probably evacuate inland, particularly if they have friends/family in-state. But I don't think how many people realize just how bad the power outages situation would be. This would be an order of magnitude (or two) greater than Oct. 2011. 80-90% of the state would be without power for weeks and a large portion of that probably at least a month and it could be longer if any substations are completely destroyed. From my understanding, much of the equipment is build overseas and you just can't fly that stuff over, its gotta be shipped by boat and that stuff takes time to build as well. Grocery stores will have generators but could end up being some shortages of food and even gas. It would be ugly 

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

8 days. It was awesome and something I look forward to again . Power outages are awesome . It’s why you always see me saying “ YES!!” Or congrats !! When folks post that they lost power. It’s legitimately a happy feeling 

Beats my longest - 6 days from the Jan 1953 ice storm on the hills north and west from NYC.  2nd place is 101 hours from the Dec 18, 2023 gales/flood and 3rd was 90 hours in Jan 1998.  We were fortunate in that last one - a single break between Brunswick Avenue and our place 400' away would've meant 2 weeks.  (Our phone was out for 13 days.)

[ineedsnow]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's say a 1938-style hurricane were to be possible (same track, strength, etc). There probably would be some people which take the threat seriously, however, I'm nervous the vast wouldn't. I would assume, however, mandatory evacuations would be ordered at least for the coast which would help but most people I would think probably evacuate inland, particularly if they have friends/family in-state. But I don't think how many people realize just how bad the power outages situation would be. This would be an order of magnitude (or two) greater than Oct. 2011. 80-90% of the state would be without power for weeks and a large portion of that probably at least a month and it could be longer if any substations are completely destroyed. From my understanding, much of the equipment is build overseas and you just can't fly that stuff over, its gotta be shipped by boat and that stuff takes time to build as well. Grocery stores will have generators but could end up being some shortages of food and even gas. It would be ugly 

please please let it happen.. I know many people here that don't think a Hurricane can even happen here.. the ones that do say it wont be bad even if one hit.. I honestly hope a big one hits soon! 

[Modfan2]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's say a 1938-style hurricane were to be possible (same track, strength, etc). There probably would be some people which take the threat seriously, however, I'm nervous the vast wouldn't. I would assume, however, mandatory evacuations would be ordered at least for the coast which would help but most people I would think probably evacuate inland, particularly if they have friends/family in-state. But I don't think how many people realize just how bad the power outages situation would be. This would be an order of magnitude (or two) greater than Oct. 2011. 80-90% of the state would be without power for weeks and a large portion of that probably at least a month and it could be longer if any substations are completely destroyed. From my understanding, much of the equipment is build overseas and you just can't fly that stuff over, its gotta be shipped by boat and that stuff takes time to build as well. Grocery stores will have generators but could end up being some shortages of food and even gas. It would be ugly 

Having spent 9yrs in S FL I have a new appreciation for preparedness. Most folks (not all) had some sort of season storm kit with food and other supplies. All it’s going to take here is a strong Cat 1 or 2 and people will be out of power for a couple of weeks losing their shite on the power companies. We have have had significant tree growth since Gloria and Bob and many have not idea what widespread tree damage will look like. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Having spent 9yrs in S FL I have a new appreciation for preparedness. Most folks (not all) had some sort of season storm kit with food and other supplies. All it’s going to take here is a strong Cat 1 or 2 and people will be out of power for a couple of weeks losing their shite on the power companies. We have have had significant tree growth since Gloria and Bob and many have not idea what widespread tree damage will look like. 

And what people are not going to realize to when it comes to the power companies is a 38-like track would mean substantial power outages from LI through New England and probably even into eastern NY. All these markets would be tied up...we would obviously have to rely on help from other states but with the help that would be needed...I don't think we would be able to get the help needed. Obviously first priorities are going to be police/fire/hospital grids. Any people sharing those grids will be the luckiest...at least in terms of getting power restored quickest. 

[Cyclone-68]

This is interesting wording for NNE tomorrow:

Given the degree of instability and strength of the flow, severe
   thunderstorm winds are likely (some significant). Large hail will
   also be possible with any storms. Additionally, forecast soundings
   show enough low-level curvature to support a tornado threat,
   including a strong tornado or two, with any sustained surface-based
   supercell. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of smoke up there today . Burning