Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

And of course when this New England hurricane disaster finally occurs again, they will blame climate change.  Ignore facts and history b/c the "cause" is all that matters. 

So when we had 5 landfalls 1938 to 1960, was it climate change then?  Worst SNE flooding on record also in this period (Connie/Diane Aug 1955).  Why is it almost 35 years now w/ no landfall, which is the record (or second place depending on what you count), when the globe got steadily warmer during this time?  How can this be?  How do you resolve this contradiction to the narrative?  Everything is supposed to get worse across the board!  
 

Yeah you can bank on that no matter what I think. Unless you had something truly unprecedented, like a C5 because SSTs and OHC are just astoundingly outside the historical record off like NJ, or the scenario that I posed where the steering pattern entirely collapses over the region, it'd just be climo.

New England gets high end wx too, it's just less frequent. 

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Having spent 9yrs in S FL I have a new appreciation for preparedness. Most folks (not all) had some sort of season storm kit with food and other supplies. All it’s going to take here is a strong Cat 1 or 2 and people will be out of power for a couple of weeks losing their shite on the power companies. We have have had significant tree growth since Gloria and Bob and many have not idea what widespread tree damage will look like. 

Perspective matters!  Too many that have never lived anywhere else in one location often have this skewed perception about wx in general.  The "IMBY Syndrome" I like to call it.  Also, we have this bias in a regional sense in this country, as in "East Coast is i!t"  More specifically DCA-BOS and sometimes the "center of the universe" NYC!  Wx does not care about where we chose to populate the most, but our cognitive biases tell us otherwise!
 

[Great Snow 1717]

45 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

10 days?  How about a month?  No power that long, ppl will become unraveled and start doing crazy things.  Civil unrest will be rampant in some areas going that long. 

Since we are so tied to the Internet and mobile devices, that withdrawal from that alone will be very bad for many just on a psychological level.  We are actually more vulnerable these days b/c of our reliance on technology.

Be careful what you wish for! 

100% agree...I think the unraveling will begin within 48 hours. Once the shock wears off and people begin to realize how bad the situation is.....many people couldn't handle the covid lock downs.  The aftermath of a direct hit from a strong hurricane will make the Covid lock downs seem like a trip to Disney World.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see if we can gin one up this summer/ fall

CoastalWx needs to test his "120 mph wind risk zoning" in Weymouth! Don't get him started on that when he moved there! 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

49 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Meh.. lets get a cat3 through SNE 

You have a better chance for a major ice storm than a major hurricane in SNE. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Can you imagine 75% of customers w/o power in MA/CT/RI alone?  That's what would likely happen w/ another 1938.  Sandy at max had about 8M ppl w/o power I think, but that was spread from BOS to DCA.  How about 8M in SNE alone?  That's *way* worse.

New England direct hurricane strikes being rare have a big plus, but also big minus.  The minus being the population has limited or no experience w/ them so when one finally occurs again, it is a *lot* worse, esp. psychologically, and almost 35 years now since the last? 

A disaster is often only as bad as the preparation, or lack of it. The Gulf Coast and and FL know the deal being through it so often, and they are much better prepared each time b/c of this.  The downside of course is that the get hit more.  Well, everything has a cost/benefit ratio, but there is nothing inherently "wrong" w/ that!  In this case, it's just climo!

And of course when this New England hurricane disaster finally occurs again, they will blame climate change.  Ignore facts and history b/c the "cause" is all that matters. 

So when we had 5 landfalls 1938 to 1960, was it climate change then?  Worst SNE flooding on record also in this period (Connie/Diane Aug 1955).  Why is it almost 35 years now w/ no landfall, which is the record (or second place depending on what you count), when the globe got steadily warmer during this time?  How can this be?  How do you resolve this contradiction to the narrative?  Everything is supposed to get worse across the board!  

This is a problem mindset now, linear and vapid thinking,  Bandwagon fallacy and let emotions rule rather than logic and reason.  Cherry-pick information to maximize the narrative.  Logical fallacies and cognitive bias are *rife* here, and these shortcomings of human nature exploited by TPTB.

Not saying climate change is not a problem, it is (you have to say this b/c otherwise you get "DENIER!"), but they way it is handled is all messed up due political/social/economic factors, among other things.  The science is contaminated.  This I think we all can agree on!

When you talk about anything, esp. a problem, you need to include *all* information.  The narrative for climate change is distinctly lopsided (the world is going to end). and it goes beyond just a particular narrative, it also is highly negative, and negative news sells, plain and simple.  So independent of any politics, the *business* for climate change is huge, and is exploited for profit.
There is unsaid mode for those in power, "never let a problem, disaster, or tragedy go to waste!"
 

Great post! 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

CoastalWx need to test his "120 mph wind risk zoning" in Weymouth! Don't get him started on that when he moved there! 

You joining the forum is like drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round!!

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And for the uninitiated 

People get all excited when these see a deep trough along 80W or so and a hurricane approaching the Bahamas.  However, the ridge of high pressure to the NE is what is all about in the end.  If you do not have that, forget it!

From empirical observations alone, give a hurricane *any* excuse to recurve sharper than any model fcst once N of 35N, it will, unless you have that block to the NE.  I don't care how strong the trough is or how negative it gets, you need the high to prevent "escape."

[Torch Tiger]

56 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Meh.. lets get a cat3 through SNE 

yeah, go big or go home   landfalling cat 1 would be less than Gloria which was meh

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You get so scared over this!

I'm not scared, just I realize the enormity of the situation.  I don't think many do, so I am going to throttle it in this case.

You seem to forget I live the DC area now, and I definitely "don't* want to be there when it happens.  As much as I loved Gloria and want to see that again, I realize that times have changed and I can dismiss weenie-ism for practical purposes.  Maybe you can do the same for snow?  Right!  I know that's a hopeless case b/c you still complained after getting two 20"+ event in this past winter in Weymouth!

[vortex95]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The most likely however, is a scenario where something pops off the SE coast or in the Bahamas and it simply intensifies upon final approach or is injected with energy by an approaching trough. Isaias was a good example of this. It was middling off the coast of FL but intensified as it hit NC, and although it was weakening up the coast the trough injection made a difference in NE impacts before the thing could fall apart substantially. 

That's what I'd imagine is possible in a hostile year like this. Getting a CV monster to cross the Atlantic or a tempest to explode in the Caribbean is going to be extremely difficult. You'd need a seedling in the Bahamas or off the Carolina coast that simply found a favorable enough environment and enough time to ramp up. 

In the Atlantic "quiet" phase 1970-1994, we got 3 landfalling hurricanes here.  Since 1995 in the Atlantic "active" phase, nothing so far!  But any correlation falls apart when you look at the previous "active" phase 1926-1969.  It shows how you have to be careful w/ forecasting from cycles and analogs.

That being said, seasons that have more "home-grown" TCs do increase risk to the East Coast by virtue of you don't have systems forming way out at Cabo Verde where they are vulnerable to recurvature due to just a huge distance to cross.  Also, waves or weak systems that never develop in the deep tropics/MDR have a better chance of making it all the way across since they are more governed by the low-level easterlies.  Then they "make their move" outside the deep tropics closer to the East Coast.  Carol and Bob are two excellent examples of home-grown big hits here.

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I'm not scared, just I realize the enormity of the situation.  I don't think many do, so I am going to throttle it in this case.

You seem to forget I live the DC area now, and I definitely "don't* want to be there when it happens.  As much as loved Gloria and want to see that again, I realize that times have changed and I can dismiss weenie-ism for practical purposes.  Maybe you can do the same for snow?  Right!  I know that's a hopeless case b/c you still complained after getting two 20"+ event in this past winter in Weymouth!

There are people here who  found last winter to be challenging...they sure ain't going to be able to handle the aftermath from a direct hit by a major hurricane..

[tamarack]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

This. "Low end" C4 is probably the best we can do, and everything would have to align to create the conditions to blunt rapid weakening and/or extratropical transition. There's so much that would factor into whether potential is maximized. But we don't need the highest end cane to have high end impacts. 

As I see it, a large and inertially stable C4/C5 hurricane, taking 1) the 1938 track that blasts to Montreal, 2) a hook left to bring the RFQ into NY Harbor, or 3) an eastward slide that brings the RFQ from Groton to Boston are the nightmare scenarios. 

The other, which we don't talk about but I think is increasingly on the table given CC, is a scenario where a tropical entity is drawn up into the region using the canonical synoptic setup to bring it here, but we see a collapse of the steering flow as it arrives and a biblical rainfall results. It has happened in the recent past in the south (Imelda, Florence as examples) but I think Henri, for all its failure to deliver wind, was proof of concept in New England. 

Might add '38's drag race from the Outer Banks to LI, and a mid-September timing when the water temp is at/near peak.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah you can bank on that no matter what I think. Unless you had something truly unprecedented, like a C5 because SSTs and OHC are just astoundingly outside the historical record off like NJ, or the scenario that I posed where the steering pattern entirely collapses over the region, it'd just be climo.

New England gets high end wx too, it's just less frequent. 

Yes, every location/region "pays the piper" eventually.  Just it varies for each wx phenomena and climo!  I don't think the general public understands this, and since some events are so uncommon and exceed regular memory or lifetimes, ppl freak easily.  I get it, experience matters, but that's where knowing and understanding wx history comes in.  I can not emphasize that enough!

The point I was trying to drive home overall is that a min Cat 1 landfall, which is *not* extreme or unusual in the large pix for New England, will be treated as extreme b/c *impact* will be enormous.  

What I see all too often these days is that ppl conflate a wx event intensity w/ impact.  They are not always directly correlated.  Biggest SNE case I quote a lot is Dec 13, 2007 4-8" traffic nightmare.  Run-of-the-mill storm well forecast, just timing was bad, and decisions made by officials/authorities made it epic bad from dismissing everyone from work/school noon-1pm when the S+ was underway.  That scale of impact had almost nothing due to w/ the 4-8" of snow itself here.  We handle 4-8" easily the vast majority of the time.  

So the hurricane massive and record power outages will largely be a function or increases population, infrastructure, mismanaged of land (tree trimming, etc), and things like power companies not prepared for the scale of impact (not enough staffing/equipment increase over time to handle the much larger population and infrastructure).  And this will happen w/ a min Cat 1 hurricane almost certainly.
Sure, you can blame the fact that we have gone record long w/o a landfalling hurricanes here, but the door swings both ways.  Would it be better to have more landfalling hurricanes so we avoid the inexperience and complacency???
 

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Great post! 

Imagine 96% of the world rendered dark interminably due to a Carrington redux event

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Imagine 96% of the world rendered dark interminably due to a Carrington redux event

Or how about a Yosemite caldera eruption.  That would be fun. 

[tamarack]

Afternoon AFD from GYX.  Tomorrow evening might get interesting.  Our place is on/near the boundary between levels 2/5 and 3/5.  I can't recall ever being in a 3/5 area.

Now to the increasing threat for severe weather, which again
could be potentially significant. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5)
of Severe Weather is in place for northern NH and the western ME
mountains,a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for central NH and the
Maine interior, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for coastal ME
and approaching southern NH.

A potent 500mb shortwave will cross Quebec in the afternoon and
evening, with its associated cold front approaching the
International Border from the northwest early Tuesday evening.
Increasing forced ascent, significant height falls, and
strengthening wind fields aloft will set the stage for severe
thunderstorms to develop with the hot and humid air mass in place,
further enhanced by an elevated mixed layer that will steepen lapse
rates aloft.

Today`s 12Z model suite, including CAMs, continue to show deep
layer shear of 50-60 kt, MUCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, and
high values of DCAPE (800-1000 J/kg) brought on by some dry
air/high dewpoint depressions in the low levels. This supports
damaging wind gusts, and given the parameters, there`s certainly
potential for these to be significant on the order of 75+ mph.
In addition, the instability profiles and steep mid-level lapse
rates on forecast soundings depict large hail could be to the
size of golf balls or even larger. There is also enough
directional shear to support a tornado threat with mean 0-1km
SRH of 100-200 m^2/s^2. These hazards are all possible within
discrete or semi-discrete storm mode, but the primary hazard
will become damaging winds when the dominant mode becomes more
linear, although a tornado within the line(s) will remain
possible.

For timing: there`s strong consensus among the CAMs with
multiple clusters or semi-discrete developing across southern
Quebec in the late afternoon to early evening with rapid upscale
growth in coverage and intensity as storms approach northern NH
and northwestern ME in the 6pm to 8pm time frame. Storms are
expected to quickly progress to the south the rest of the
evening into the early overnight hours. However, it should be
noted there are hints of isolated discrete cells developing in
the 4pm to 6pm timeframe that may approach from the north. Based
on CAM solutions, the threat for severe weather should diminish
after 2 AM, but some development of showers and a few storms is
possible overnight.

This is not a yearly, typical threat of severe storms, and it
becomes even more dangerous as the threat continues after dark. It
is highly advised to have multiple ways to receive warnings,
especially ones that will wake you up with the threat continuing
into the late evening and early overnight hours. The highest risk
areas also include many popular camping and recreation areas,
which make those who are outdoors extremely vulnerable to
falling trees.

[Layman]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Imagine 96% of the world rendered dark interminably due to a Carrington redux event

 

19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Or how about a Yosemite caldera eruption.  That would be fun. 

Both great examples of how the current internet/Twitter/X/Youtube hype focuses on the worst case scenarios and is ultimately a detriment to any real cause.

Who gives a crap about CC when a Carrington event or super caldera eruption is in the cards?

Certainly not Joe Sixpack who's toiling away at some menial job to keep the lights on and maybe bring the family to McDonald's on the weekend.  

[weatherwiz]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Imagine 96% of the world rendered dark interminably due to a Carrington redux event

There is this brief series done by the History Channel called "Doomsday". 10 episodes, each about a different way we could go extinct. One of the 10 was based on the Carrington event. I actually love the series, purely for entertainment. Its well done in terms of entertainment and "fear" factor. Every now and then I'll fall asleep listening to the series and sometimes I actually dream that I am immersed in whatever the scenario is  

The 10 are:

Hyper volcano eruption (or something along those lines)

Gamma Ray burst

Earth ends up out of orbit and is swallowed by the sun 

Black hole swallows the moon and Earth

Aliens 

solar storm 

Nuclear war

Asteroid 

Earth hit by a rogue planet 

can't remember the last one 

[HoarfrostHubb]

It’s actually raining a bit…

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s actually raining a bit…

And 90 seconds later it is done. 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is this brief series done by the History Channel called "Doomsday". 10 episodes, each about a different way we could go extinct. One of the 10 was based on the Carrington event. I actually love the series, purely for entertainment. Its well done in terms of entertainment and "fear" factor. Every now and then I'll fall asleep listening to the series and sometimes I actually dream that I am immersed in whatever the scenario is  

The 10 are:

Hyper volcano eruption (or something along those lines)

Gamma Ray burst

Earth ends up out of orbit and is swallowed by the sun 

Black hole swallows the moon and Earth

Aliens 

solar storm 

Nuclear war

Asteroid 

Earth hit by a rogue planet 

can't remember the last one 

I may be wrong but I think you are thinking of "How The World Ends"...

[Cyclone-68]

Haven’t our historical hurricanes been during slow and below average years? I need something to grab onto because the Atlantic is as barren as a 60 year old British midwife right now. 

[vortex95]

47 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Haven’t our historical hurricanes been during slow and below average years? I need something to grab onto because the Atlantic is as barren as a 60 year old British midwife right now. 

Yes, going by ACE, if you use the current 123 seasonal ACE normal value.  All New England landfalling hurricanes since 1938 have been below avg ACE years, except 1969.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Layman said:

 

Both great examples of how the current internet/Twitter/X/Youtube hype focuses on the worst case scenarios and is ultimately a detriment to any real cause.

Who gives a crap about CC when a Carrington event or super caldera eruption is in the cards?

Certainly not Joe Sixpack who's toiling away at some menial job to keep the lights on and maybe bring the family to McDonald's on the weekend.  

The issue with Carrington+ solar super storms is that the grid was not engineered with those in mind.  There are no safe-guards, there are no redundancies after the fact. 

"In the cards" isn't really the issue - unless we mean at some unknown point in the future.  But there's nothing imminent.   As far as when?  dice roll.  Beryllium-10 and chlorine-36 are manufactured when the atmosphere is bombarded by cosmic rays associated with super storms and left as residue in the wake. They have been sampled in deep ice coring ... occurring in irregular intervals between 400 to 2400 years apart - the grid as we know it is utterly defenseless against these class of event.  Infrastructural engineering over generations did not have solar physics in mind.  Carrington+ event with the current physicality of the grid would result in a pan-systemic failure that would not be recoverable without physically replacing substation and connective utility infrastructure at a global scale.  

This is not hyperbole.  This not fabrication of social media and/or media selling drama and fear for profit. 

This is fact.  This verifiable.  This is not something one can just not believe in because we live in an age where people think if they don't like hearing something they can choose not to believe it, and that makes it untrue.   It's true whether one believes it or not.  

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

There is this brief series done by the History Channel called "Doomsday". 10 episodes, each about a different way we could go extinct. One of the 10 was based on the Carrington event. I actually love the series, purely for entertainment. Its well done in terms of entertainment and "fear" factor. Every now and then I'll fall asleep listening to the series and sometimes I actually dream that I am immersed in whatever the scenario is  

The 10 are:

Hyper volcano eruption (or something along those lines)

Gamma Ray burst

Earth ends up out of orbit and is swallowed by the sun 

Black hole swallows the moon and Earth

Aliens 

solar storm 

Nuclear war

Asteroid 

Earth hit by a rogue planet 

can't remember the last one 

If my memory is serving me well the missing episode is the Nostradamus episode....about his various predictions for how the world ends

There was a show titled Doomsday Preppers but while that had some end of the world scenarios it primarily was about how people were preparing for catastrophic events.

Another interesting show is "While the Rest of US Die"

[Damage In Tolland]

Man what a special summer . The superest Nino ever and we will all live thru likely top 3 hottest summer ever 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Imagine 96% of the world rendered dark interminably due to a Carrington redux event

I believe that years ago, I read that a Carrington event would lead to the death of over half the populations of major cities within 6 weeks. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And 90 seconds later it is done. 

Greenfield actually got about .10” between the morning shower and the heavier afternoon shower.  
Very fortunate, good for the gardens and trees.  

[dendrite]

102° in Thunder Bay today. Love it.