donsutherland1 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 A brief push of heat from an impressive heat dome over the Central and Northern Plains that sent the mercury to all-time records of 109° at Salt Lake City and 110° at Billings, MT could send temperatures into the 90s tomorrow through Thursday. The potential exists for Newark to approach 100° at the height of the short period of heat. Friday will also be very warm before the temperatures ease for the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -38.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.360 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 We're fortunate those 850s temps peak at night otherwise we would've seen another round of 105+ temps. All time state records would've been on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Today's Highs TEB: 90 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 87 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 TTN: 85 BLM: 84 NYC: 84 ACY: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 81 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 Euro and gfs hinting at rain Saturday..Hopefully holding off til at night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Going to be getting real smoky soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Looks like most of it stays aloft tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Smoke from wildfires in Ontario and Minnesota near the border will make its way into the area tomorrow. This smoke is mostly elevated so it'll make tomorrow's skies more gray than blue. Wednesday's heat potential is significant for coastal locations. Decent WNW wind could allow temps near 100 right to the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 12 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Smoke from wildfires in Ontario and Minnesota near the border will make its way into the area tomorrow. This smoke is mostly elevated so it'll make tomorrow's skies more gray than blue. Wednesday's heat potential is significant for coastal locations. Decent WNW wind could allow temps near 100 right to the beaches Looks like maybe more surface smoke on Wednesday if the RAP is correct. Will have to watch out for this, as this could hold back high temperatures some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Wow, this looks quite bad. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Well-wildfire smoke wasn’t quite what I expected to keep it below 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 AQI numbers are still in the mid 60s, like yesterday morning, but it's different. It's like the air is "heavier". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Well-wildfire smoke wasn’t quite what I expected to keep it below 100. Wednesday the smoke could reach all the way to the surface in some areas- that combined with the very hot temps could make it the most dangerous day of the season so far.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Gorgeous morning. Nice breeze bringing in that ocean air smell into Meadowlands in Kearny, seagulls laughing. Close you eyes you could almost envision being at the shore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 21 minutes ago, steve392 said: Gorgeous morning. Nice breeze bringing in that ocean air smell into Meadowlands in Kearny, seagulls laughing. Close you eyes you could almost envision being at the shore. Beats the usual smells in that area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Wednesday the smoke could reach all the way to the surface in some areas- that combined with the very hot temps could make it the most dangerous day of the season so far.......... Supposed to be quite breezy. Not sure if that will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro and gfs hinting at rain Saturday..Hopefully holding off til at night Looking like the rain could be here during the morning Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Will be hard to beat that smoke plume from June 2023. That was something else. I remember driving along Rt. 80 in my area and smoke was at ground level blowing across the road. Visibility was low and the air smelled of burning wood. If you didn't know better you would have thought it was from a local forest fire, not something from up in Canada. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Looking like the rain could be here during the morning Saturday. Will take the morning or the night. My girls' grad party on Sat and will have nearly 100 people over. I'll have 2 large tents, but rain would still suck. ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Current satellite of smoke plume. Surprised more air quality alerts are not being issued, at least for Upstate NY and New England? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 3 minutes ago, FPizz said: Will take the morning or the night. My girls' grad party on Sat and will have nearly 100 people over. I'll have 2 large tents, but rain would still suck. ugh Fingers crossed for you. Been there done that. It does suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 14 minutes ago, FPizz said: Will take the morning or the night. My girls' grad party on Sat and will have nearly 100 people over. I'll have 2 large tents, but rain would still suck. ugh Never easy is it? That will be us next year. Would be a mess here with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Never easy is it? That will be us next year. Would be a mess here with rain Nope. Of course the whole week (and most of summer to this point) is dry too, which is so annoying. We will make the best of it, but rain would just add to the stress levels. New ICON is pretty rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 28 minutes ago, FPizz said: Will take the morning or the night. My girls' grad party on Sat and will have nearly 100 people over. I'll have 2 large tents, but rain would still suck. ugh MCS/Derecho chances on the rise for this weekend in the northwest flow around the heat dome- winds in those things can reach 100 mph ...........last one to hit central NJ was Labor Day 1998 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 88 / 68 smoke filled sky from a distant fire. Low - mid 90s today- smoke likely gonna knock 1-3 degrees off max highs. We'll see how much smoke smokes up getting to 100 tomorrow. Hot through Fridak - peaking Tue - Thu . Trough bingd the next front this weekend - looks stormy / cloudy. A period of near normal before nest piece of western heat pushes east and W. Atlantic Ridge builds back in the 7/24 - beyond. 7/14 - 7.17 : Hot peaking Wed/Thu 7/18 - 19: Storms rain chances > 1 inch possible / severe weather 7/20 - 7.24 : Near normal heat capped mainly south 7/24 - beyond : warming with next chance of heat or strong heat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Saturday is looking more and more wet. I’ll take anything we can get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (1954) NYC: 100 (1954) LGA: 99 (1954) JFK: 85 (1983) Lows: EWR: 55 (1940) NYC: 58 (1926) LGA: 59 (1940) JFK: 61 (1999) Historical: 1872: Washington experiences the last of 18 consecutive days of 90 °F or more heat. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1935: The highest temperature ever recorded in Chicago is an unofficial 109°F on July 24, 1935. The highest official temperature ever recorded is 105°F on July 14, 1995 during the Chicago Heat Wave. (Ref. Wiki.Answers.Com) 1936 - Extreme heat prevailed across the central U.S. as severe drought raged from Texas to the Dakotas. Record high temperatures were established in sixteen states that summer, including readings as high as 120 degrees in the Great Plains Region. On this particular date, afternoon highs for 113 stations across the state of Iowa averaged 108.7 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1936: Collegeville, Indiana: The highest temperature ever reported in Indiana is 116 °F. The average temperature of 81.1° is the fifth highest ever recorded from June 27 to July 14th 1936. Extreme heat prevailed across the central U.S. as severe drought raged from Texas to the Dakotas. Record high temperatures were established in sixteen states that summer, including readings as high as 120 degrees in the Great Plains Region. On this particular date, afternoon highs for 113 stations across the state of Iowa averaged 108.7 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1954: East St. Louis, Illinois: The highest temperature ever reported in Illinois is 117 °F. Union, Missouri: The highest temperature ever reported in Missouri is 118 °F. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1957 - Hail, with some stones up to an inch in diameter, covered the ground to a depth of three inches ruining crops in the Bath area of New Hampshire. (The Weather Channel) 1966: Bakersfield, CA set a record low maximum of 90 °F. This is the only day of the entire year where Bakersfield has always had a high temperature of at least 90 °F in every year since records began in 1893. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1970: A line of severe thunderstorms raced across southeast South Dakota into northwest Iowa causing extensive damage. The line of thunderstorms produced widespread high winds and large hail. The hail averaged quarter to hen egg size although some areas received stones the size of softballs and winds in excess of 70 mph were not uncommon. Apparently, the most extensive damage from the storms extended from Mitchell through Parker to near Beresford. Spotty areas reported 100% crop damage. In Lincoln County, the hail caused an estimated $8 million dollars in crop damage and $2 million dollars in property damage. In the town of Marion the hail was so large that it actually punched holes in some roofs. Northwest Iowa didn't fair much better as the storms caused $5 million dollars in crop damage in Sac County. The storm was labeled the worst in 65 years in Sac County as 70 to 100 mph winds tore through the area. Amazingly enough almost every home in Sac City was damaged by the storm. Numerous structures also lost their roofs in Sioux county. Several fatalities in both South Dakota and Iowa were directly related to the severe weather. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1974: Connecticut--a 9-year-old girl was killed by lightning while camping. She was sleeping in a metal-frame tent. Jefferson Davis Parish, La.--A man riding a tractor on his farm near Woodlawn was killed by lightning. Near Redfield, Ark.--Lightning struck and killed a motorcyclist while he was standing in an open field. His two companions were slightly injured. Owego, NY -- One person was killed and two were injured by lightning during an evening thunderstorm. No further details. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Iowa produced eight inches of golf ball size hail near Grafton, IA, completely stripping corn stalks in the area. Hail caused more than a million dollars damage to crops in Worth County and Mitchell County, and another million dollars damage in Ada County and Crawford County. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the Great Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth, MN, with a reading of 37 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the Northern Atlantic Coast Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms also spawned a rather strong tornado near Westtown, NY, and drenched Agawam, MA, with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern New Mexico to central Nebraska. One hundred soldiers were injured by flying debris and collapsing tents during a thunderstorm near Trinidad, CO. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced wind gusts to 77 mph at La Junta. Early morning thunderstorms produced torrential rains over parts of Louisiana, with 7.50 inches at Carencro, and 5.85 inches at Morgan City. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1995: Boston, MA recorded 100F or higher for the 22nd time in history ant it was the first time since July 21, 1977, when 102 °F was recorded. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events). July 14-15, 1995 "The Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho"....MI, ON, NY, VT, NH, MA, CT, RI (Ref. For More Information) 1995: Chicago/Midway Airport, IL recorded a maximum temperature reading of 108 °F. Other highs were: Sparta, WI: 105° and Blair, WI 105° (tied – 8/23/1948). Record highs for the date included: Toledo, OH: 104°, Mauston, WI: 103°, South Bend, IN: 100° and Owen, WI: 99°. Grand Rapids, MI set an all-time record high minimum of 81°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: Rockingham County, VA a 20-year-old male soccer player was struck and killed at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds. The soccer match had been called due to the storm, but the player had not yet sought shelter. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1998: Rescuers searched for victims and survivors of flash flooding from the night before in parts of Tennessee. The training thunderstorms dumped 7 inches of rain in 6 hours in and around Lawrenceburg, TN. Bridges were washed out and vehicles swept away. At least two people were killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: On the evening of Friday, July 14th, thunderstorms producing severe weather were occurring over Upper Michigan and adjacent portions of Ontario near Sault Saint Marie. By late evening the storms had evolved into a bowing line just northwest of the Mackinac Bridge. At 10:17 PM EDT, the thunderstorm gust front hit the bridge, and a gust to 90 mph was measured. Sustained winds of 80 mph continued on the bridge for ten more minutes. Thus began the intense "Ontario-Adirondacks Derecho" that would cause hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of damage, several deaths, and many injuries as it raced southeast from the northern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast. 2002: A hot period in Billings, MT with a 108 °F maximum; the highs the previous two days were 107° and 106°. The record for the city is 112 °F on July 31, 1901. (Extreme Weather p. 275, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005 - Death Valley had 7 consecutive days (July 14-20) with high temperatures equal to or above 125 degrees. 2006: Severe thunderstorm produced grapefruit size hail near Colstrip, MT; nearly an hour later an 82 mph wind gust was observed at Miles City, MT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: MCS/Derecho chances on the rise for this weekend in the northwest flow around the heat dome- winds in those things can reach 100 mph ...........last one to hit central NJ was Labor Day 1998 I thought we had one in late June 2012, just ahead of the early July 2012 heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Hard to tell if there is any cirrus mixed in but skies are really looking smokey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 1 minute ago, doncat said: Hard to tell if there is any cirrus mixed in but skies are really looking smokey. Yeah was surprised how quickly it got here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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