Severe threat 6/10-6/12

[MidwestChaser]

What’s the point of making a watch THIS close to the city but not going all the way? The line is heading in that general direction; they’ll just add it later

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

Tons of power outages over here, but locally only had 30-40 mph gusts with about 5 minutes of heavy rain. No thunder here. Considering we were at 88/73° I’m surprised everything fell apart as it did. 
 

Eyes turn to the MCS over northern Missouri tonight. If that stays tame and south, tomorrow will be rocking around here. If it blows up and feeds off the nocturnal LLJ tonight and we end up with 2-3 hours of rain then tomorrow will end up a lot like today with more rotation embedded in the discrete cells.

Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening.  The caveat is it’s Michigan.

The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence.  It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer.  Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep.  But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.

[cyclone77]

DVN gusted to 69mph earlier, MLI hit 55mph.

The Kirksville area of northern/northeast MO is really getting trained this evening.  Gonna be some huge totals overnight if that remains stalled out east/west through that area.

[MazooWeather]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening.  The caveat is it’s Michigan.

The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence.  It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer.  Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep.  But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.

Looking like it's just gonna be some rain that should be long gone by daybreak instead of sustained overnight development, could be a rocking day 

[MidwestChaser]

Just wild.

 

[RCNYILWX]

Thoughts on later today for northern IL and points just nearby:

- Locally sky high potential if supercell mode is maintained in the maxed out environment.

- There appears to be a play for prefrontal supercells, possibly followed by an intense (likely prolificically tornadic) QLCS.

- There also looks to be a play for QLCS being the primary mode, which could yield multiple EF0-1 tornadoes and a few EF2s in addition to corridors of enhanced straight line wind damage.

- It seems unlikely we'll get through the event relatively unscathed given the high end parameter space.

- Current thinking on most likely area to have a EF2+ tornado (if supercell(s) are there to tap into environment around 21z) is far northern IL (and adjacent southern WI) closer to the forecast surface low and warm front position.

Of course neither of these elements are set in stone so a farther south sfc low track and/or warm front position would up the ante for a sig tor threat farther south.

[Castaway]

89/75 sweaty balls today. Somehow managed to gather strength to smoke/grill on the pitboss pellet grill twice before each rd in oak brook. 

the img compressor shit here sucks

[MidwestChaser]

Still an enhanced risk; 20 minutes late just to roll back to the original Day 2 outlook.

[A-L-E-K]

watching that mcv in iowa

[SolidIcewx]

Iowa rocking this morning. Early alarm clock for sure.

[King James]

Fun day

[cyclone77]

Very surprised that there's still not a moderate risk area.  Today definitely looks to have widespread severe.  Already many 70-80mph wind reports out west with the incoming MCS.

[A-L-E-K]

at least all the weak sauce silver maples came down yesterday

[hawkeye_wx]

The MCV track looks south of what models have been predicting.

[SolidIcewx]

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

at least all the weak sauce silver maples came down yesterday

Wish winds would take down all the invasive trees myself

[Torchageddon]

I can't imagine IMBY getting a ripping bow echo at 8am like what southern IA is experiencing currently.

[Harry Perry]

11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The MCV track looks south of what models have been predicting.

Starting to look that way. 

[SolidIcewx]

Really starting to bow out with that wicked apex

[A-L-E-K]

now one does these events like iowa

[WestMichigan]

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

at least all the weak sauce silver maples came down yesterday

I have a large one of those in my hay field.  I lost one side of it about 5 years ago but it is massive.  They are fragile but can turn into impressively large trees given the right environment.

[sbnwx85]

Gm bros

[A-L-E-K]

6 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I have a large one of those in my hay field.  I lost one side of it about 5 years ago but it is massive.  They are fragile but can turn into impressively large trees given the right environment.

oh yeah, some huge ones in my neighborhood that i try to avoid parking under

[yoda]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Very surprised that there's still not a moderate risk area.  Today definitely looks to have widespread severe.  Already many 70-80mph wind reports out west with the incoming MCS.

Finally came out on 1300z SPC OTLK 

[Chicago916]

[Chicago916]

Funny how the cig2 and highest risk just stops a few miles from the lake. SPC should know south of the metro into NWI is the QLCS tornado hotspot lol

[Tim from Springfield, IL]

Major damage late last night/early this morning in the far north end of Springfield, IL.  Especially near the fairgrounds.

The Animal Protective League (local animal shelter) roof in some of their buildings were destroyed.  Making those buildings a total loss.

Also reports of power flashes near the State Fairgrounds.

Lot of power outages stretching from the far north end of Springfield all the way to at least Decatur.

And we weren't under last night's tornado watch (for Peoria/Galesburg/Bloomington areas) down here, although I'm thinking the actual watch box clipped the far north end of Sangamon County, plus much of Macon as well.  Pre-2006, that would have been enough to put Sangamon and Macon counties in the watch.  Stinkin' Lincoln (ILX) strikes again.

https://www.wandtv.com/news/illinois/thousands-lose-power-during-overnight-severe-weather/article_2ef40d58-ec90-447e-962c-d2371b9a714d.html

[A-L-E-K]

always a bit of question whether these mcs cranking at a diurnally unfavorable time get over the hump and go long track, nice to see them going bullish

[pen_artist]

[Harry Perry]

Pretty “meh” feeling over this way. 
 

Lake Michigan and an overturned atmosphere  (downstream) along with debris clouds vs an unusually strong June system. Lots of bust potential here. If things hold out or redevelop over this side of the pond then could be a big evening but timing is getting later and later and models looking messier/disorganized. 
 

I feel pretty confident in the Chicago area for some heavy weather after 7-8PM. 12z HRRR looks ugly. 

[Chicago Storm]

I believe we will see some changes regarding expectations for today.

Let the HRRR catch up to reality over the next few runs, and we’ll likely see a clearer and different picture painted.