Severe threat 6/10-6/12

[MidwestChaser]

What’s the point of making a watch THIS close to the city but not going all the way? The line is heading in that general direction; they’ll just add it later

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

Tons of power outages over here, but locally only had 30-40 mph gusts with about 5 minutes of heavy rain. No thunder here. Considering we were at 88/73° I’m surprised everything fell apart as it did. 
 

Eyes turn to the MCS over northern Missouri tonight. If that stays tame and south, tomorrow will be rocking around here. If it blows up and feeds off the nocturnal LLJ tonight and we end up with 2-3 hours of rain then tomorrow will end up a lot like today with more rotation embedded in the discrete cells.

Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening.  The caveat is it’s Michigan.

The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence.  It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer.  Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep.  But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.

[cyclone77]

DVN gusted to 69mph earlier, MLI hit 55mph.

The Kirksville area of northern/northeast MO is really getting trained this evening.  Gonna be some huge totals overnight if that remains stalled out east/west through that area.

[MazooWeather]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Todays HRRR modeled today’s convection pretty good and it has all of western lower MI under the gun tomorrow evening.  The caveat is it’s Michigan.

The strength of the low might have a lot more of influence.  It’s more of a spring-like system with better wind fields than you typically see in the summer.  Stronger mid-level westerlies may shunt the leftover debris east and keep mid-level lapse rates steep.  But, it’s Michigan, so who knows.

Looking like it's just gonna be some rain that should be long gone by daybreak instead of sustained overnight development, could be a rocking day 

[MidwestChaser]

Just wild.

 

[RCNYILWX]

Thoughts on later today for northern IL and points just nearby:

- Locally sky high potential if supercell mode is maintained in the maxed out environment.

- There appears to be a play for prefrontal supercells, possibly followed by an intense (likely prolificically tornadic) QLCS.

- There also looks to be a play for QLCS being the primary mode, which could yield multiple EF0-1 tornadoes and a few EF2s in addition to corridors of enhanced straight line wind damage.

- It seems unlikely we'll get through the event relatively unscathed given the high end parameter space.

- Current thinking on most likely area to have a EF2+ tornado (if supercell(s) are there to tap into environment around 21z) is far northern IL (and adjacent southern WI) closer to the forecast surface low and warm front position.

Of course neither of these elements are set in stone so a farther south sfc low track and/or warm front position would up the ante for a sig tor threat farther south.

[Castaway]

89/75 sweaty balls today. Somehow managed to gather strength to smoke/grill on the pitboss pellet grill twice before each rd in oak brook. 

the img compressor shit here sucks

[MidwestChaser]

Still an enhanced risk; 20 minutes late just to roll back to the original Day 2 outlook.