Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Ji]

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations.  
 
If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. 
 
If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. 
 
Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. 
 
But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part. 

Might be a one snowstorm winter lol. Better make it good!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations.  
 

If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. 
 

If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. 
 

Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. 
 

But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part. 

PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/1/2026 at 5:08 PM, CAPE said:

It looks pretty damn close to current reality at initialization, and then evolves to more of basin wide event as winter progresses. Who's to say it doesn't have the right idea?

And yes, Chuck-

-PNA

-PNA may seem out of context in an El Nino thread, but I'm just describing what's happening now - this is the highest El Nino on record for the date, and right now it's not acting like previous Nino's. Will that change for the Winter? perhaps, but I wouldn't expect a monster -150dm N. pacific low in the DJFM mean. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. 

Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting. 

[frd]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. 

Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting. 

What do you make of this?  Notice a tight range for multiple months. Also of note is a deep - NAO now and a rapidly climbing PNA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast. 

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions 

[Eskimo Joe]

Interesting temp/snowfall website tool. If you're a snow lover, the odds are not in your favor in these parts for big ENSO events:

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Interesting temp/snowfall website tool. If you're a snow lover, the odds are not in your favor in these parts for big ENSO events:

 

 

Interesting how strong El Niño has the highest snowfall on average, but it’s the moderate El Niño which is the coldest on average. The snow plot for super El Niño events is what we all know which is we gotta get hit or we get nothing. The most concrete thing it showed was that this winter will be warm as the super El Niño is by far the highest temp anomaly. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Interesting how strong El Niño has the highest snowfall on average, but it’s the moderate El Niño which is the coldest on average. The snow plot for super El Niño events is what we all know which is we gotta get hit or we get nothing. The most concrete thing it showed was that this winter will be warm as the super El Niño is by far the highest temp anomaly. 

I truly hope this El Nino comes in weaker, but that seems unlikely.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, frd said:

What do you make of this?  Notice a tight range for multiple months. Also of note is a deep - NAO now and a rapidly climbing PNA

I've just been looking at 500mb daily maps and we've had 4 good low peaks in the arctic this Summer. I think the actual AO index is not as positive as the -H5. 

PNA is recovering finally after a negative start to August. Let's see if it continues! 

[Weather Will]

WB CFS 30 Days of Run average Dec. thru March temp. & precip. Anomalies...hope this verifies. Added 500MB anomalies for Dec-Feb. and Jan. Thru March

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I wish. We're in a nasty 7-year trend in March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions 

Expand it to all PDO analogs.. +PDO is perferred

Although we had record low -PDO in the Summer/Fall the last 2 years, and ended up having a cold Winter both times. 

[bncho]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Expand it to all PDO analogs.. +PDO is perferred

Although we had record low -PDO in the Summer/Fall the last 2 years, and ended up having a cold Winter both times. 

Thoughts on a PDO flip to positive with the Super Nino?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

Thoughts on a PDO flip to positive with the Super Nino?

You would expect it, but the decadal -PDO is near a peak right now.. it's holding surprisingly strong. Nino 3.4 is +2.1c right now and the previous ONI record for JJA is +1.6c, and JAS +1.9c. So this is the Strongest El Nino on record at the moment.. yet we are starting off Aug with the 7th month of -PNA values in a row. That's what's keeping the PDO so low. In the cold season the North Pacific High starts reacting to ENSO more, so there is a good chance it will start trending more positive then, say like October, but the pattern right now otherwise is really strong in the N. Pacific. I think it's tied to warm season +AO, and this year is another -H5 over the Arctic.. which we've had so much of since 2017. Amazing that the Arctic ice melt record from 2012 has now held for 14 consecutive years in exponential global warming. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You would expect it, but the decadal -PDO is near a peak right now.. it's holding surprisingly strong. Nino 3.4 is +2.1c right now and the previous ONI record for JJA is +1.6c, and JAS +1.9c. So this is the Strongest El Nino on record at the moment.. yet we are starting off Aug with the 7th month of -PNA values in a row. That's what's keeping the PDO so low. In the cold season the North Pacific High starts reacting to ENSO more, so there is a good chance it will start trending more positive then, say like October, but the pattern right now otherwise is really strong in the N. Pacific. I think it's tied to warm season +AO, and this year is another -H5 over the Arctic.. which we've had so much of since 2017. Amazing that the Arctic ice melt record from 2012 has now held for 14 consecutive years in exponential global warming. 

That’s what we’ve seen happen in the last several years. In this el nino, we don’t need the PDO to be super positive. We just need to get it to neutral, then we’re in play. Stays at -2 or close to it? Might as well sell the snowblowers. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB CFS 30 Days of Run average Dec. thru March temp. & precip. Anomalies...hope this verifies. Added 500MB anomalies for Dec-Feb. and Jan. Thru March

 

 

Need more cowbell, er, I mean more WW WB CFS maps posted. This just doesn't cut it.

[Weather Will]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need more cowbell, er, I mean more WW WB CFS maps posted. This just doesn't cut it.

I am curious to see how bad Dr. No looks in comparison tomorrow....

[WEATHER53]

On 8/2/2026 at 4:29 PM, Terpeast said:

Yeah, this winter we will either hit one out of the park, or strike out spectacularly.

Largely a function of can we get the cold air and in the flops it stayed central pa and north 

[IronTy]

Reading the tea leaves I've got a good feeling for this winter.  December is gonna be a dumpster fire and I'll be cutting grass up til Christmas but I'm seeing storms in January and February.  I'm not even going to do any snowblower prep so that'll bring more luck.  How does Garrett county do in super ninos?

[RIC_WX]

17 minutes ago, IronTy said:

  How does Garrett county do in super ninos?

72-73 84"
82-83 89"
97-98 106"
15-16 79"

My POV is generally the milder the winter, the less upslope hence most of the seasons are below average BUT likely more synoptic snow from actual SLP systems.  None of these winters are particularly cold by Garrett standards.  

I am personally expecting lots of rain, a handful of significant paste bombs, and significantly less wind / cold as compared to the last two consecutive seasons.  But the sample size isn't large and the fact we basically managed 80%-90% of climo in the strongest ENSO events in the data set is still pretty good.

[WxUSAF]

New euro seasonal out. Waiting to see some more maps posted. All I’ve seen so far peaks the giga-Nino at +4C and has the east coast very wet. 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

New euro seasonal out. Waiting to see some more maps posted. All I’ve seen so far peaks the giga-Nino at +4C and has the east coast very wet. 

I think the common theme, no matter the model run, is the prospects of a wetter winter than we've had in a long time. Honestly, that is a welcomed sight. Yes, we will probably have a bunch of very cold rain prospects considering the strength of the Nino and historical precedence. That said, timing a couple solid cold shots during the peak of winter (Jan-Feb) could easily get us a chance to score with some big daddy potential lurking considering the southern stream jet likely much more involved compared to what we see in a Nina. I'm still favoring a wet fall and winter with probably a low-end threat for winter in December, picking up as we move into peak climo. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked in full, so tampering expectations. I'm genuinely excited just to have precipitation returning. I'd rather have precip so we can green things up for next spring and summer and not have the desolate brown we've been accustomed to for much of the past decade. 

[Weather Will]

WB EURO August seasonal maps.  (Dec. thru Feb.)

[Weather Will]

EURO is cooler this run compared to July. WB maps below compare January temp forecast in July compared to latest August run...

[WxUSAF]

If we are that wet and DJF is only +1C, I’d do cartwheels. Especially if it follows Nino climo and most of that positive anomaly is December. 

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we are that wet and DJF is only +1C, I’d do cartwheels. Especially if it follows Nino climo and most of that positive anomaly is December. 

That range is .5-1C.

[aldie 22]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we are that wet and DJF is only +1C, I’d do cartwheels. Especially if it follows Nino climo and most of that positive anomaly is December. 

Yeah that is tasty looking, that makes me wonder what potential that may have for us back here in the Shenandoah Valley

[mitchnick]

Gotta' love the Aleutian Low at 5H.

[annunciated]