Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Ji]

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations.  
 
If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. 
 
If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. 
 
Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. 
 
But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part. 

Might be a one snowstorm winter lol. Better make it good!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations.  
 

If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. 
 

If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. 
 

Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. 
 

But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part. 

PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/1/2026 at 5:08 PM, CAPE said:

It looks pretty damn close to current reality at initialization, and then evolves to more of basin wide event as winter progresses. Who's to say it doesn't have the right idea?

And yes, Chuck-

-PNA

-PNA may seem out of context in an El Nino thread, but I'm just describing what's happening now - this is the highest El Nino on record for the date, and right now it's not acting like previous Nino's. Will that change for the Winter? perhaps, but I wouldn't expect a monster -150dm N. pacific low in the DJFM mean. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. 

Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting. 

[frd]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. 

Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting. 

What do you make of this?  Notice a tight range for multiple months. Also of note is a deep - NAO now and a rapidly climbing PNA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast. 

This is troubling but a sample size of 2 is hard to draw strong conclusions 

[Eskimo Joe]

Interesting temp/snowfall website tool. If you're a snow lover, the odds are not in your favor in these parts for big ENSO events: