Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Ji]

Let’s just use pure math for now to set expectations.  
 
If we use Ninos that reached > +1.5 during winter 5/9 or 56% had a HECS. 
 
If we use years that reached > +2 during winter 2/3 or 66% had a HECS. 
 
Clearly we have a significantly elevated probability of a HECS this winter. 
 
But yes for the DEBs the caution is the years in that analog set that didn’t have an HECS were really really really awful winters for the most part. 

Might be a one snowstorm winter lol. Better make it good!