Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Cyclone-68]

Break clouds damn you:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

[weatherwiz]

We'll see what can happen south of Rt. 2 and especially getting towards the Pike and farther south...mid-level dry air going to be a big concern and tough to overcome. With this said, that would keep anything that develops more isolated so if something pops and can get a robust enough updraft, it will have an environment all to its self. Will be tough this...instability won't be sufficient I don't think

[weatherwiz]

That line is looking pretty good with some very noteworthy rotation. Erode the MLCIN out ahead of it and boost up those values and this may be an interesting afternoon in NNE. Looks good for some clearing out ahead of the line too 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We'll see what can happen south of Rt. 2 and especially getting towards the Pike and farther south...mid-level dry air going to be a big concern and tough to overcome. With this said, that would keep anything that develops more isolated so if something pops and can get a robust enough updraft, it will have an environment all to its self. Will be tough this...instability won't be sufficient I don't think

I doubt the valley is going to clear out. The breaks in the clouds in ENY do not really seem to be advancing east.

 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I doubt the valley is going to clear out. The breaks in the clouds in ENY do not really seem to be advancing east.

 

 

 

The valley probably does but that is going to be the product of mid-level air advecting in which is also going to negatively impact potential for thunderstorm development down this way as well. However, its been noteworthy that the CAMs have become more aggressive and have remained consistent with developing convection, even down into CT later this afternoon. We'll see...too much mid-level dry air can really screw things...not too mention its rather warm aloft too

[OrangeCTWX]

Currently in the only sunny spot in the northeast! Windy as hell though. 

[dendrite]

Wonder if we can punch a break in the clouds here before go-time, like E NY, if we can start getting the flow more 180-200 off of the Monads. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'd be feeling pretty good in the Albany/Glen's Falls zone with the partial clearing and that line to the west already producing severe/tor warnings.  

[Torch Tiger]

Cloudy and breezy. Meh

[OrangeCTWX]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

I'd be feeling pretty good in the Albany/Glen's Falls zone with the partial clearing and that line to the west already producing severe/tor warnings.  

Didn’t even think about that. Could be a fun afternoon lol

[Nomz]

12z Buffalo sounding looked pretty good. Low toppers but 3cape and deep layer shear are good. That air mass should be advecting towards us through the day.

[Torch Tiger]

Sun popped and gusts to 30

[Cyclone-68]

Sun peeking in and out here. Satellite seems about 50/50 to whether the clouds break completely 

[OrangeCTWX]

33 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Didn’t even think about that. Could be a fun afternoon lol

Clouds are back but we had a solo hour plus of sun there. Constant wind right now.

[Lava Rock]

0.40" round 1.

[WxWatcher007]

Wagons north. Heading to VT.

[weatherwiz]

You get enough MLCAPE or 3km CAPE in this and you could be looking at the potential for a stronger tornado 

[Brewbeer]

some clearing happening now IMBY, quite breezy 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Relying on some type of renegade development on the southern flank doesn't exactly give me goosebumps. I guess we'll see what happens.  

[powderfreak]

Seems like a flash flood threat too… we are over 1” on the day and every one of these pulses is just cranking water.

Looks like there may be some training developing within the line too.

I bet we can do another 1” with what’s coming.

[Typhoon Tip]

Warm boundary slipping thru now...

75/68 sky light breaks

69/64 under schmutz last hr

[weatherwiz]

Kind of shocked we haven't seen a downstream MCD or watch extension yet

[CoastalWx]

Interesting all the ltg is way up in VT for the most part. Shallow stuff currently near and SW of Albany. That or better instability in the graupel/hail zone with cooler temps aloft in VT.

[Nomz]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Kind of shocked we haven't seen a downstream MCD or watch extension yet

There’s your downstream MCD:

 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Interesting all the ltg is way up in VT for the most part. Shallow stuff currently near and SW of Albany. That or better instability in the graupel/hail zone with cooler temps aloft in VT.

[Typhoon Tip]

T-watch

Envious threat primarily N of Weatherwiz

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Tor Watch here.  I'm skeptical.  

[powderfreak]

Consistent thunder for the past hour or 90 minutes with downpours.  Nothing severe or overly exciting besides heavy rainfall.