Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’d be happy with sub severe 90% of the time. Doesn’t have to be classic plains/midwest tops to 80,000 feet stuff..It looks like I’ll be moving to southern NH in the next two years so hopefully that’ll improve my lot a little  

What happened to the man I used to know?

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

IL/IN severe cancel due to morning MCS?

They’ll have a solid day later. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

IL/IN severe cancel due to morning MCS?

I don't think so. The idea of multiple rounds has been modeled quite well with this round expected to be quite intense as well. This will certainly impact things on a mesoscale level and may result in some shifts in best potential for later as this could influence how far north the warm front gets. 

But you can see it will (well already kind of is) rapidly intensity from east-central Missouri into south-central Illinois and that air will lift north as the warm front does. If anything, this MCS may lead to further enhancement for some localized strong/violent tornado potential with residual outflow boundaries and enhanced local vorticity

[Cyclone-68]

The sun will rise, the sun will set and Iowa will still get a derecho 

[Torch Tiger]

Not a bad 24-hour lead for our region

Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push
   north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm
   development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the
   remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible
   across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with
   tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present.
   The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal
   position will need to be monitored northward toward the
   Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated
   into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds
   and even a tornado risk. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think there has been a situation ever involving a nearby boundary and GFS based products or NBM based products actually throw out numbers suggestive of not warm sectoring. This is going to be a big problem when its basically just NBM for a text based product 

agreed...

wild digression ...buuut:   all of society is bottle-necking reliance with technology.  While doing so, there's no redundancies.   There should be back up systems that achieve the same tasks, like in "off" mode, ready to be turned on in the event of calamity.  It's getting closer to a one system handling everything.  Banking, to heart surgery, to flying airliners, to surfing porn on the web, and everything else that machines civility along, if that one agency goes down,  heh...

It's too easy to even write that Sci Fi dystopian novel.  First, make the entire species slaved to one system, which is eventually either by design or hostility, taken over by a proverbial Skynet type agency ...and well, shit - we've already seen that movie, huh. 

But anyway, I see this kind of thing all the time. I wish they still would run old systems that worked, but were abandoned because of the evolution of ease and convenience.  Like if the NBM future system has an outage... we can still look at the constituent parts.