Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Brewbeer]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Convection just doesn't do much for me because the odds of anything noteworthy at any given location is just so low........I mean, what are the odds one of those rogue cells sets up over MBY....and furthermore, what are the odds said rogue cell offers anything more anomalous than some heavier rain and gusty winds. While the jackpot is inherently elusive, at least during major winter storms the noteworthy significant blanket of snowfall is pretty uniform. That is a worthwhile endeavor relative to the ill-fated summer rendition of pin the convective tail on the weenie.

anecdote warning:  I recorded the June 1, 2011 tornado that crossed through Springfield from my office window, so I encourage you to keep an open mind     

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

anecdote warning:  I recorded the June 1, 2011 tornado that crossed through Springfield from my office window, so I encourage you to keep an open mind     

Nothing close-minded about my sentiment. I'll peer out the window every now and again if it happens to look ominous, but that is about the extent of my commitment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Those on the Gulf coast should keep an open mind this winter, some dude in Pensacola measured a foot of snow outside of his office 17 months ago.

[weatherwiz]

Quite the storm down in Louisiana. 

[Cyclone-68]

Any chance we get any clearing down here before the afternoon is done?

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing close-minded about my sentiment. I'll peer out the window every now and again if it happens to look ominous, but that is about the extent of my commitment.

Yeah last 15 years of convective ennui has made me numb. 
 

That said, rt 2 north has a decent chance late day. 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Any chance we get any clearing down here before the afternoon is done?

Clears enough to see the anvils to the north.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah last 15 years of convective ennui has made me numb. 
 

That said, rt 2 north has a decent chance late day. 

There is a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates in NY advecting northeast. This may weaken but something to watch to lead to some instability enhancement for eastern NY into VT/NH

[wx_observer]

Skies are brightening up here.  FWIW, there's already a tor warning in Western NY.  

[Chrisrotary12]

49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Quite the storm down in Louisiana. 

Is that from that faux tropical storm?

[dendrite]

Hopefully more nice, safe rains later like this morning 

[powderfreak]

Already closing in on 0.70” this morning.

This looks interesting this afternoon.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

can't wait for my passing shower later that amounts to <0.03"

If that. That’s all we get these days. My last two “rain” events have been 0.03 and 0.02.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is that from that faux tropical storm?

Short lived but yeah. Some good bursts of convection still going down there. 

8 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

Skies are brightening up here.  FWIW, there's already a tor warning in Western NY.  

Yeah, that line looks solid right now. The line looks pretty damn robust on the 12z HRRR in NNE. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Already closing in on 0.70” this morning.

This looks interesting this afternoon.

HRRR gone wild up north. 

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is that from that faux tropical storm?

yes

[CoastalWx]

How many cattle will be thrown into the air in Vermont?

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How many cattle will be thrown into the air in Vermont?

I suggest you log off and enjoy the New England gray overhead these next 10 hours. 

[tamarack]

On 6/16/2026 at 9:39 PM, vortex95 said:

In any given situation, the worst-case scenario is the least likely to happen in the mean.  The notion, "better safe than sorry" is a weasel line to give an excuse to always go w/ the worst-case scenario. 

Also, "we are saving lives!"  Forecasts and awareness has become so good in recent decades, one can't hide behind that as an excuse anymore.  Lives are lost now more IMHO b/c people have become numb and apathetic to the relentless hype.  They have no idea what to believe, so many just tune it all out.   That ends up costing lives when a truly exceptional event (worst-case) occurs, and it's made even worse b/c the exceptional events are greatest risk to lives.

I admit though this is an extremely complex social issue, among other things, and no easy way to figure out what works best.  One thing i will stand by solid though. "more [warnings/alerts} is not always better!"
 

We are in the 3rd flash flood watch since last Friday.  The first 2 provided 1.43" but flow on the local 4th-order watercourse (Sandy River) has barely stayed above the 25th percentile.  The initial watch verified in a small area around Conway NH with reports of 3-5" and quick flooding, while 99%+ of the watch areas had a nice drink.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I suggest you log off and enjoy the New England gray overhead these next 10 hours. 

Nah I’m  pumped for the convection 200 miles away. I can’t stay away from the screen.

[yoda]

Sounds like Tornado Watch coming per MCD 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Sounds like Tornado Watch coming per MCD 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1181
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0831 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181331Z - 181530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to shift eastward with potential for
   damaging wind and perhaps a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Low topped convection will continue eastward this
   morning across portions of the Northeast. Strong southerly flow is
   ushering in higher dew points ahead of this line. Though cloud cover
   is prominent, further destabilization is expected to occur through
   filtered heating into the early afternoon with MLCAPE around 1000
   J/kg progged by the afternoon. Given the strong mid-level flow and
   low-level jet, damaging wind potential will likely increase into the
   afternoon. Given strong low-level shear profiles, a couple of
   tornadoes are also possible. A watch will be needed soon to cover
   this potential.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   PBZ...

   LAT...LON   43017777 41647945 41407616 41587391 42387246 44077204
               44817237 44887508 43017777 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

[dendrite]

Maybe we can toss some cadavers on top of the coop from 2k in VT. My chickens would totally eat the scraps. 

[Cyclone-68]

FWIW the sun is trying hard to peek through right now 

[yoda]

Tornado Watch it is for W MA, VT, and E NY until 3pm

[Torch Tiger]

Much like today, 6/1/11 was on the radar 7 days in advance as well

[Cyclone-68]

I’d have a sprinkle of 6/11 with a dash of 6/53 and make it hurt 

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western Massachusetts
     Central and Eastern New York
     Vermont

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM
     until 300 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A line of fast-moving thunderstorms will sweep eastward
   across the watch area through the early afternoon, posing a risk of
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Elmira NY to 25
   miles east of Montpelier VT. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349...WW 350...WW 351...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
   storm motion vector 26040.

 

[yoda]

40/20 tor probs, 70/30 wind 

 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Much like today, 6/1/11 was on the radar 7 days in advance as well

Nammy doesn't look too bad.