Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[dendrite]

Max 84.0°

Beautiful day. Didn’t even have to use my AK.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They’ve been absolutely brutal here the past few days

yeah.   not here. I'm wonderin if there was a spray thing I don't know about.  But I was over in Sterling at Meadow Brook, basically a 1000 acres of orchards, open fields, with woody glades doing disc golf last weekend and there wasn't one.  Then I was over at Qual Ridge in Acton doing a regular golf there and again...none.   Why is massachusett special

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Oct 1979 was an odd duck.  Not sure of the left movement as a factor.  Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics.  It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low.  This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984.  Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4!

Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the 10/3/1979 event.  It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell.  They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem.

The BDL tor did $250M in damages.  Adjusted for inflation, that would be $1.1B today.  That makes it the costliest tor in New England history.  At the time, the BDL F4 was the third costliest U.S. tor on record w/ the $400M at #1 from the SPS F4 in April that year and #2 Xenia OH F5 in April 1974.  ORH tor in 1953 adjusted for inflation would be $658M, but in the 1953, the $53M in damages was the costliest U.S. tor up to that time.

Were there a lot of thunderstorms around locally the day of the Worcester tornado? I thought I read somewhere Boston got a strong thunderstorm later that same afternoon.

[kdxken]

39 minutes ago, BrianW said:

What a week coming up. I think we see 90+ Tuesday to Sunday at BDL. 

Did Bradley even hit 90 during the past 3 days?

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Were there a lot of thunderstorms around locally the day of the Worcester tornado? I thought I read somewhere Boston got a strong thunderstorm later that same afternoon.

Ahead of the tornadoes, communities across the region were battered by massive hailstones, with baseball-sized hail reported in multiple towns. Cape Cod experienced vivid, continuous lightning for nearly three hours that evening

[weatherwiz]

Oneonta is our target area for tomorrow! 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Max 84.0°

Beautiful day. Didn’t even have to use my AK.

 

Yeah but the humidity made it unbearable. 

 

 

 

[Cyclone-68]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Ahead of the tornadoes, communities across the region were battered by massive hailstones, with baseball-sized hail reported in multiple towns. Cape Cod experienced vivid, continuous lightning for nearly three hours that evening

Thank you so much for this. I’ve often wondered what the day was like elsewhere 

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’ve been absolutely brutal here the past few days

Same, granted mostly wooded areas

[TheBudMan]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Oneonta is our target area for tomorrow! 

 

@weatherwiz go to Brooks BBQ, a few extra pounds on you will make spiders more fearful  !! 

[Baroclinic Zone]

88-89F here. Not too bad with low humidity.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Oct 1979 was an odd duck.  Not sure of the left movement as a factor.  Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics.  It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low.  This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984.  Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4!

Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the 10/3/1979 event.  It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell.  They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem.

The BDL tor did $250M in damages.  Adjusted for inflation, that would be $1.1B today.  That makes it the costliest tor in New England history.  At the time, the BDL F4 was the third costliest U.S. tor on record w/ the $400M at #1 from the SPS F4 in April that year and #2 Xenia OH F5 in April 1974.  ORH tor in 1953 adjusted for inflation would be $658M, but in the 1953, the $53M in damages was the costliest U.S. tor up to that time.

Just some added info.  Dr. Mel Goldstein (who passed away in 2012?) developed a Severe Weather Index in the 1970's that was used to gauge severe weather potential in SNE.  The index ranged from 1 to 5; 1 little or no severe wx potential, 5 was strong potential for tornadoes.  He worked closely with region electricity suppliers to gauge the threat for power outages.  In his morning update on October 3rd his index came in as 5!!!  He issued updates during the day indicating the tornado potential was high, and in fact called the Office of Emergency Management several times about his concern.  As a side note, I was living on the western edge of the Farmington Valley then, and observed obvious large scale low-level rotation racing northeast about 10 to 15 minutes prior to touchdown in Windsor Locks.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Ahead of the tornadoes, communities across the region were battered by massive hailstones, with baseball-sized hail reported in multiple towns. Cape Cod experienced vivid, continuous lightning for nearly three hours that evening

Sounds like '89. Had penny size hail and continous lightning for more than 3 hours in falmouth

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Just some added info.  Dr. Mel Goldstein (who passed away in 2012?) developed a Severe Weather Index in the 1970's that was used to gauge severe weather potential in SNE.  The index ranged from 1 to 5; 1 little or no severe wx potential, 5 was strong potential for tornadoes.  He worked closely with region electricity suppliers to gauge the threat for power outages.  In his morning update on October 3rd his index came in as 5!!!  He issued updates during the day indicating the tornado potential was high, and in fact called the Office of Emergency Management several times about his concern.  As a side note, I was living on the western edge of the Farmington Valley then, and observed obvious large scale low-level rotation racing northeast about 10 to 15 minutes prior to touchdown in Windsor Locks.

The index was called DAX... Differential Advection Index.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, the trough that posed a cutoff  risk is being pushed a little to the east so that heat ridge moves in. Nothing impressive but upper 80s to lower 90s and spots possible later next week into the weekend. After that, it does look like a more humid set up moves in, still see that happening second half of June.

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

still haven't installed, these past few nights have been gloriously cool and perfect for sleeping.  

 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Were there a lot of thunderstorms around locally the day of the Worcester tornado? I thought I read somewhere Boston got a strong thunderstorm later that same afternoon.

I am not sure.  A warm front passed early in the day, so that would mean RW/TRW were likely.  In the afternoon, it was three distinct supercells, one in NH and two in MA.  Then I think w/ the actual cold front there were few more severe storms, based on photos near sunset that showed crisp CBs on the horizon well the E of Rutland MA.

Warm front passages in the morning w/ RW/TRW occurred both on 7/10/1989 and 6/1/2011.

[moneypitmike]

Got up to 78* in Mattapoisett.  Nice and comfy breeze along with it.

COC.

[Brewbeer]

The breeze has been nice today working around the house finishing the summer patio set-up. Hoping it dies down after dinner tho, finally put the boat in the water and the wife wants to go for a cruise.

[Ginx snewx]

What's a mosquito? A

[MegaMike]

8 hours ago, tamarack said:

Ancient history (2010) - in late April that year, PWM temp jumped from a cloudy 59 to a sunny 84 in 15 minutes when the east breeze switched to a strong SW wind.  I was at Mercy Hospital overlooking the Fore River waiting for my wife's knee surgery to be finished and had a full view to E (some fog) and W (much haze).

I haven't experienced a high gradient weather event I didn't like  Similar, but unrelated uncertainty today. Got 1/2 my $ back from yesterday's losses...

The weather market is a lot like weather challenge, but far more competitive. You can definitely make a profit.

Although I trash bots, I am developing one to monitor observations/forecasts and automate trades. The combination b/n statistics, weather, and gambling is too stimulating to ignore.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Yeah but the humidity made it unbearable. 

 

 

 

Agree. Need the dews up so the soil temps stay higher. I did my pawpaw grafts a little earlier than usual too so the low RH dries them out too much.

Not asking for much. Just near 60°.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Got up to 78* in Mattapoisett.  Nice and comfy breeze along with it.

COC.

A friend of mine played golf yesterday in Marion. Said it was freezing.

[Torch Tiger]

Just saw 18z models...looks dry

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Just saw 18z models...looks dry

Tomorrow night ?

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow night ?

maybe a renegade shower or light storm. Mostly nw

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

maybe a renegade shower or light storm. Mostly nw

wtf 

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Agree. Need the dews up so the soil temps stay higher. I did my pawpaw grafts a little earlier than usual too so the low RH dries them out too much.

Not asking for much. Just near 60°.

Works for me if you lower the temperature by 10°. How many paw paw trees do you have? What do you do with the fruit? Give it to friends.