Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

we'll see...    I suspect you're seeing the motion on sat, en masse going SW?

but this is a legit cold insert behind the weakly defined low moving E of Cape Ann out there over the lower GOM.  Already you can see strata streets filling in over Fryeburg and up along the steppe of Maine's interior.  I'm curious to see how how much 'clearing' takes place.

i'll give it to you though that the day is long and we spend longer time in apex solar so ... there'll be some thermodynamic processing

Already getting breaks moving in overhead. Sure, there will be a little self destruction, but even BKN skies would be nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually Brian this is meteorologically interesting ( I guess...).

I was looking at the GFS 850 mb charts more closely...you can see this pivoting S ... maybe it's like the opposite of yesterday.  Nice through noon, than a piece of shit, today's the mirror of that.  

[powderfreak]

We rained overnight in the 40s, then cleared out as it moved south.

Feels sort of like Saturday.  Nasty when everyone was asleep, then by 8am it was breaking blue.

[ineedsnow]

On and off drizzle this morning.. perfect for the start of meteorological summer

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m shocked you chose GFS and didn’t use Euro

Well you said 80s Euro is not that 

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually Brian this is meteorologically interesting ( I guess...).

I was looking at the GFS 850 mb charts more closely...you can see this pivoting S ... maybe it's like the opposite of yesterday.  Nice through noon, than a piece of shit, today's the mirror of that.  

Yeah one last mid level trough to swing through down there. At least the cold pool moves east overnight. Slow improvements.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Well you said 80s Euro is not that 

Because it has the front draped just north 

[Typhoon Tip]

That all aside ...   heat,  where are we and what -

What was once merely suggestive is now ... call it 'modestly' impressive.  A signal for heat along 100 W/mid latitude continent.  This has been in the ensemble clustered means for days -overnight is interesting.    The simple version first,  if and when this wave function collapses, the heat it containers will unleash and synoptically spread E with the prevailing vector.   A hot time for day if not a heat wave.

GFS ensemble mean centered on June 9 ... notice the +AO, too -

The EPS and GEPs are in principle the same, with the same implications.   The trough sag on the EC is legit... some 1/3 members refuse to admit to this [probable] evolution. The ridge NE of HA over the lower GOA is a favorable wave geometry for positive height anomaly around Michigan - heat wave for them... But the +AO/+NAO, ongoing, suggests that spreads E.   I'm noticing even in the operational runs there are occasional Sonoran release signals, an implication whenever there is ridge-trough-ridge signal between 130W and 90W/mid latitudes. 

The operational versions are definitely toying with something of a warmer recovery... They are not taking advantage of the expansion this aloft gives them, but the polar branch appears to finally be decaying.  That's precarious.   At least in so far as what all this means for us N-E of the Mason Dixie, where we've been stuck in a troughy/cold purgatory for several weeks. 

As an side, despite the heat wave in May, May had trouble actually averaging above normal ... Logan ( ironically) did best in that regard, but interior climo sites were decimals of average, despite having days in the 90s.  That means that the weight of the month was colder -statistics sometimes lie like that.   Like Scott and I have noted several times in the past, we just go bonkers when we do get warm, and this is stressing/offsetting the perception of a cooler sensible journey.

[SouthCoastMA]

Clearing out a bit, 54.1°

Shouldn't feel too bad by afternoon if we can keep the sun

[dendrite]

It’s been mostly sunny here since 10a. Up to 58°

[Typhoon Tip]

getting your clearing down here finally  

up to 59! woo hoo

[metagraphica]

Almost noontime and still 56. This is no way to run Summah™.  

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Almost noontime and still 56. This is no way to run Summah™.  

Ya this blows . 

[CT Valley Snowman]

15 years ago today was the most insane severe weather day I have ever experienced.  June 1. 2011.  

[CoastalWx]

Shit day. Too cold. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Shit day. Too cold. 

Juneorch at its best. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

57 and raining now.  Craptastic.

[weatherwiz]

Weekend is going to be all about the warm front. I would not be surprised if guidance is a bit too hung up with the warm front and at least southern areas end up in the warm sector. But not a good sign when you see the sfc low weaken as it crosses the Great Lakes region. That's a good way to stall the warm front or transition it to a stationary front and we never truly warm sector and end up cool with clouds/showers. Uncertainty high for sure weekend and early next week...potential is there to get quite warm but need things to work out

[Snowcrazed71]

So I have a question that someone relates to the June topic. I just posted in the winter form for this upcoming winter as well. 

I saw a few different posts now from different people saying they're expecting a Modoki El nino for the upcoming summer and winter. From what I'm reading, that gives us a completely opposite effect of a typical super El Nino. Meaning, not as hot of a summer, not as suppressed when it comes to hurricanes, and a colder stormy year pattern for the winter. Figured more people are in this current June discussion topic than they are right now in the winter discussion ( that's been crickets, as it should be )

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Weekend is going to be all about the warm front. I would not be surprised if guidance is a bit too hung up with the warm front and at least southern areas end up in the warm sector. But not a good sign when you see the sfc low weaken as it crosses the Great Lakes region. That's a good way to stall the warm front or transition it to a stationary front and we never truly warm sector and end up cool with clouds/showers. Uncertainty high for sure weekend and early next week...potential is there to get quite warm but need things to work out

I'd go ahead and cancel all outdoor plans and go with stable cool/wet weather - it fits the unrelenting persistence to seek out and destroy any free hours that collective civility would have any chance to experience. 

Don't fight it

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I have a question that someone relates to the June topic. I just posted in the winter form for this upcoming winter as well. 

I saw a few different posts now from different people saying they're expecting a Modoki El nino for the upcoming summer and winter. From what I'm reading, that gives us a completely opposite effect of a typical super El Nino. Meaning, not as hot of a summer, not as suppressed when it comes to hurricanes, and a colder stormy year pattern for the winter. Figured more people are in this current June discussion topic than they are right now in the winter discussion ( that's been crickets, as it should be )

I can’t speak to winter, but my full expectation given the conditions in the Atlantic is that the strengthening Nino will be even more suppressive than some of the current seasonal predictions. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Shit day. Too cold. 

Dog food weather for June 1st

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can’t speak to winter, but my full expectation given the conditions in the Atlantic is that the strengthening Nino will be even more suppressive than some of the current seasonal predictions. 

I'm wondering about the magnitude given to some recent obs.  

I mean it's not hugely scientific to say this, but it just doesn't feel like it's coming on in any particularly mean looking way.  Historic anything in this business, tend to get busy real quick.  It's not phenominalogically consistent to speed bump with so WWB's and like below

Fwiw, this coarse looking product from CPC shows the sub warm plume as shrinking

- not sure that's helping the intent to get this to super, less very strong.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

How’s Saturday look? Have a cookout to go too. Looking forward to getting out of the house with the baby 

[Typhoon Tip]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DY-BOhHuChX/?igsh=MTZweDlmcG9iOTlwcQ==