May 2026

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

its over by Monday

yes the rain should be mostly over by Monday but if you are implying this will end the drought - think again Upton only going for less than 3 inches overall more south than north

AFD from KOKX

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes the rain should be mostly over by Monday but if you are implying this will end the drought - think again Upton only going for less than 3 inches overall more south than north

AFD from KOKX

[Evie3]

In other news, I've been seeing short and medium term forecasts that indicate that the weather pattern over the Southeastern US is changing and there is a persistent moisture flow setting up (which will be very beneficial as they've been in a very severe drought that's had a major impact on agriculture etc).   I don't understand the meteorology behind all of that, but if we are on the fringes we might benefit by way of more consistent precipitation going forward (?)

[NEG NAO]

On 5/21/2026 at 3:08 PM, Brian5671 said:

Long duration rainstorm on tap-while it will help the drought the timing is awful.

True - many merchants in the shore towns will see less $$$ than expected but it will help the drought from getting any worse in the short term BUT we need soakers like this on a regular basis for a month or so to really lessen drought conditions - not lilkely with June traditionally not one of our wettest months and  a  stretch of sunny warm/hot long summer days more likely than not.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase tonight. Rain will develop tomorrow and continue into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature will likely remain in the 50s all day on Saturday and struggle to reach the lower 60s on Sunday. The mercury will likely return to the lower 70s on Monday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. El Niño conditions are now in place. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -19.74 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.868 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

True - many merchants in the shore towns will see less $$$ than expected but it will help the drought from getting any worse in the short term BUT we need soakers like this on a regular basis for a month or so to really lessen drought conditions - not lilkely with June traditionally not one of our wettest months and  a  stretch of sunny warm/hot long summer days more likely than not.

With the nino we could see a wetter summer....

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, MANDA said:

@donsutherland1 or @bluewave 

Do either of you have any idea when the last time a monthly record low was tied or broken at any of our local climo sites?

May 9, 2020 at JFK Airport (tied), LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains (tied).

For Bridgeport: November 23, 2018

For Islip: June 1, 2009

For New York City-Central Park: August 29, 1986 (tied)

For Newark: August 29, 1982

 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

May 9, 2020 at JFK Airport (tied), LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains (tied).

We had snow that week too-accumulated briefly on some colder surfaces...

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

We had snow that week too-accumulated briefly on some colder surfaces...

Yes. I remember it well. The afternoon snow squall, even as it was short-lived, was quite impressive.

[NEG NAO]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds will increase tonight. Rain will develop tomorrow and continue into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature will likely remain in the 50s all day on Saturday and struggle to reach the lower 60s on Sunday. The mercury will likely return to the lower 70s on Monday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. El Niño conditions are now in place. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -19.74 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.868 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

why are you going for much lower rainfall totals than Upton ?

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why are you going for much lower rainfall totals than Upton ?

I'm giving greater weight to the AIFS/ECMWF, as the 18z GFS reduced totals from the 12z run. I do think 2" amounts are most likely across eastern PA into western NJ. The City and nearby suburbs should generally be 1.00"-1.50" in my thinking, but parts of CT away from the coast will have lower amounts (0.50"-1.00"). That's why I used 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts for the general NYC area. On the other hand, the NBE has grown wetter with amounts near 1.70" in and around NYC. 

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm giving greater weight to the AIFS/ECMWF, as the 18z GFS reduced totals from the 12z run. I do think 2" amounts are most likely across eastern PA into western NJ. The City and nearby suburbs should generally be 1.00"-1.50" in my thinking, but parts of CT away from the coast will have lower amounts (0.50"-1.00"). That's why I used 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts for the general NYC area. On the other hand, the NBE has grown wetter with amounts near 1.70" in and around NYC. 

Accu weather is going a little wetter, about 2.14 at the park for the Saturday thru Monday event. I believe your dryer totals will verify, as always….. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rclab]

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm giving greater weight to the AIFS/ECMWF, as the 18z GFS reduced totals from the 12z run. I do think 2" amounts are most likely across eastern PA into western NJ. The City and nearby suburbs should generally be 1.00"-1.50" in my thinking, but parts of CT away from the coast will have lower amounts (0.50"-1.00"). That's why I used 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts for the general NYC area. On the other hand, the NBE has grown wetter with amounts near 1.70" in and around NYC. 

18z in general seemed pretty wet to me, looks like 2”+ for most especially I-80 and S on the RGEM, NAM. In any event looks like a nasty 48hr period upcoming. 

[Stormlover74]

Regular Nam is basically totally dry tomorrow (probably wrong)

[ForestHillWx]

Precip is having a hard time pushing north/east at the moment. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, MANDA said:

Thanks for the stats! 

So a small one site sample shows:

- 40 years since the last monthly record low.

- 92 years since a monthly record low during meteorological winter.

Since 1998 5 monthly record warm readings but none of those during meteorological summer all were during meteorological winter.  Of course NYC temperatures during the summer are skewed low since equipment was moved from out in the open to the middle of a thicket.

Hard to envision a monthly record low in NYC until the next climate shift to cooler occurs from whatever the cause of that may be.  Volcanic?  Next natural climate shift?  Something more drastic?

Yeah, the fact that no monthly record low was set in the post-Pinatubo years (1992-1996) makes me believe it's never going to happen again. Global temperatures have jumped so much in the last 30 years.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Regular Nam is basically totally dry tomorrow (probably wrong)

Looks like steady rain Saturday into Sunday morning with showers after that and then more steady rain Monday.

[Snowlover11]

Rain breaking on on arrival

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, MANDA said:

@donsutherland1 or @bluewave 

Do either of you have any idea when the last time a monthly record low was tied or broken at any of our local climo sites?

The closest that we got in the 2020s at a station with a long enough period of record to a monthly record low was in May 2020 with the 3rd coldest monthly minimum at Newark.

The last time we had a #1 coldest monthly minimum and all-time low around the area was in January 1994 in Sussex ,NJ.

It’s much more common these days to have a top 5 warmest monthly max like the other day with the 100° heat away from the sea breeze.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Lowest Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1861	31	0
2	1947	33	0
-	1907	33	0
-	1855	33	0
3	2020	34	0
-	1903	34	0
-	1900	34	0
-	1874	34	0
-	1854	34	0
-	1851	34	0
4	1966	35	0
-	1943	35	0
-	1913	35	0
-	1911	35	0
-	1905	35	0
-	1891	35	30
-	1880	35	0
-	1867	35	0
5	1978	36	0
-	1939	36	0
-	1876	36	0
-	1875	36	0
-	1857	36	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Month of Jan Lowest Monthly Minimum Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1994	-29	4
2	1961	-25	0
3	1912	-24	3
4	1981	-22	0
-	1968	-22	1
6	1984	-21	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of May Monthly Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	100	9
2	2022	96	0
-	2016	96	0
-	2013	96	0
-	1996	96	4
3	2017	95	0
-	2010	95	2
-	2007	95	0
-	2001	95	0

 

[Monty]

All models running drier at 6z and radar looks putrid. Today is not looking like a washout. 

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, Monty said:

All models running drier at 6z and radar looks putrid. Today is not looking like a washout. 

but it will be damp showers and dreary i might be tempted to go out and do my walk considering rain will be light and spotty

[nycwinter]

feeling chilly had the heat on last night wore a sweatshirt my kind of temps.

[donsutherland1]

Latest NBE:

My thinking is that most of the area will see a general 1.00"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts. The NBE has lowered the top amounts while raising the lower amounts. The 0.50" figure will be confined to locations farther from the NYC area than had been my thinking last evening. The 6z GFS, 0z GGEM and 0z AIFS are in good agreement. The 0z ECMWF became notably wetter. However, it is an outlier among the operational models.

The key to achieving higher amounts, particularly those on the ECMWF, would be convective activity, possibly training thunderstorms. At present, most of the convective activity will likely take place south of the NYC region 

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

feeling chilly had the heat on last night wore a sweatshirt my kind of temps.

I slept with the windows open

55 here

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Monty said:

All models running drier at 6z and radar looks putrid. Today is not looking like a washout. 

Euro has more rain tomorrow than today. 

[Superstorm]

Euro has more rain tomorrow than today. 

And of course I was heading to Yankee stadium with my son and a couple of friends.

Game cancelled.


.

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

And of course I was heading to Yankee stadium with my son and a couple of friends.

Game cancelled.


.

if the game was a afternoon game no way should it have been cancelled today tomorrow game is the one that might likely get cancelled.

[TJW014]

Theme for pretty much the last two years... QPF overmodeled