May 2026

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

We had snow that week too-accumulated briefly on some colder surfaces...

Yes. I remember it well. The afternoon snow squall, even as it was short-lived, was quite impressive.

[NEG NAO]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds will increase tonight. Rain will develop tomorrow and continue into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature will likely remain in the 50s all day on Saturday and struggle to reach the lower 60s on Sunday. The mercury will likely return to the lower 70s on Monday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. El Niño conditions are now in place. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -19.74 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.868 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

why are you going for much lower rainfall totals than Upton ?

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why are you going for much lower rainfall totals than Upton ?

I'm giving greater weight to the AIFS/ECMWF, as the 18z GFS reduced totals from the 12z run. I do think 2" amounts are most likely across eastern PA into western NJ. The City and nearby suburbs should generally be 1.00"-1.50" in my thinking, but parts of CT away from the coast will have lower amounts (0.50"-1.00"). That's why I used 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts for the general NYC area. On the other hand, the NBE has grown wetter with amounts near 1.70" in and around NYC. 

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm giving greater weight to the AIFS/ECMWF, as the 18z GFS reduced totals from the 12z run. I do think 2" amounts are most likely across eastern PA into western NJ. The City and nearby suburbs should generally be 1.00"-1.50" in my thinking, but parts of CT away from the coast will have lower amounts (0.50"-1.00"). That's why I used 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts for the general NYC area. On the other hand, the NBE has grown wetter with amounts near 1.70" in and around NYC. 

Accu weather is going a little wetter, about 2.14 at the park for the Saturday thru Monday event. I believe your dryer totals will verify, as always….. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rclab]

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm giving greater weight to the AIFS/ECMWF, as the 18z GFS reduced totals from the 12z run. I do think 2" amounts are most likely across eastern PA into western NJ. The City and nearby suburbs should generally be 1.00"-1.50" in my thinking, but parts of CT away from the coast will have lower amounts (0.50"-1.00"). That's why I used 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts for the general NYC area. On the other hand, the NBE has grown wetter with amounts near 1.70" in and around NYC. 

18z in general seemed pretty wet to me, looks like 2”+ for most especially I-80 and S on the RGEM, NAM. In any event looks like a nasty 48hr period upcoming. 

[Stormlover74]

Regular Nam is basically totally dry tomorrow (probably wrong)

[ForestHillWx]

Precip is having a hard time pushing north/east at the moment. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, MANDA said:

Thanks for the stats! 

So a small one site sample shows:

- 40 years since the last monthly record low.

- 92 years since a monthly record low during meteorological winter.

Since 1998 5 monthly record warm readings but none of those during meteorological summer all were during meteorological winter.  Of course NYC temperatures during the summer are skewed low since equipment was moved from out in the open to the middle of a thicket.

Hard to envision a monthly record low in NYC until the next climate shift to cooler occurs from whatever the cause of that may be.  Volcanic?  Next natural climate shift?  Something more drastic?

Yeah, the fact that no monthly record low was set in the post-Pinatubo years (1992-1996) makes me believe it's never going to happen again. Global temperatures have jumped so much in the last 30 years.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Regular Nam is basically totally dry tomorrow (probably wrong)

Looks like steady rain Saturday into Sunday morning with showers after that and then more steady rain Monday.

[Snowlover11]

Rain breaking on on arrival

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, MANDA said:

@donsutherland1 or @bluewave 

Do either of you have any idea when the last time a monthly record low was tied or broken at any of our local climo sites?

The closest that we got in the 2020s at a station with a long enough period of record to a monthly record low was in May 2020 with the 3rd coldest monthly minimum at Newark.

The last time we had a #1 coldest monthly minimum and all-time low around the area was in January 1994 in Sussex ,NJ.

It’s much more common these days to have a top 5 warmest monthly max like the other day with the 100° heat away from the sea breeze.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Lowest Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1861	31	0
2	1947	33	0
-	1907	33	0
-	1855	33	0
3	2020	34	0
-	1903	34	0
-	1900	34	0
-	1874	34	0
-	1854	34	0
-	1851	34	0
4	1966	35	0
-	1943	35	0
-	1913	35	0
-	1911	35	0
-	1905	35	0
-	1891	35	30
-	1880	35	0
-	1867	35	0
5	1978	36	0
-	1939	36	0
-	1876	36	0
-	1875	36	0
-	1857	36	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Month of Jan Lowest Monthly Minimum Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1994	-29	4
2	1961	-25	0
3	1912	-24	3
4	1981	-22	0
-	1968	-22	1
6	1984	-21	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of May Monthly Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	100	9
2	2022	96	0
-	2016	96	0
-	2013	96	0
-	1996	96	4
3	2017	95	0
-	2010	95	2
-	2007	95	0
-	2001	95	0

 

[Monty]

All models running drier at 6z and radar looks putrid. Today is not looking like a washout. 

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, Monty said:

All models running drier at 6z and radar looks putrid. Today is not looking like a washout. 

but it will be damp showers and dreary i might be tempted to go out and do my walk considering rain will be light and spotty

[nycwinter]

feeling chilly had the heat on last night wore a sweatshirt my kind of temps.

[donsutherland1]

Latest NBE:

My thinking is that most of the area will see a general 1.00"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts. The NBE has lowered the top amounts while raising the lower amounts. The 0.50" figure will be confined to locations farther from the NYC area than had been my thinking last evening. The 6z GFS, 0z GGEM and 0z AIFS are in good agreement. The 0z ECMWF became notably wetter. However, it is an outlier among the operational models.

The key to achieving higher amounts, particularly those on the ECMWF, would be convective activity, possibly training thunderstorms. At present, most of the convective activity will likely take place south of the NYC region 

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

feeling chilly had the heat on last night wore a sweatshirt my kind of temps.

I slept with the windows open

55 here

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Monty said:

All models running drier at 6z and radar looks putrid. Today is not looking like a washout. 

Euro has more rain tomorrow than today. 

[Superstorm]

Euro has more rain tomorrow than today. 

And of course I was heading to Yankee stadium with my son and a couple of friends.

Game cancelled.


.

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

And of course I was heading to Yankee stadium with my son and a couple of friends.

Game cancelled.


.

if the game was a afternoon game no way should it have been cancelled today tomorrow game is the one that might likely get cancelled.

[TJW014]

Theme for pretty much the last two years... QPF overmodeled

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latest NBE:

My thinking is that most of the area will see a general 1.00"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts. The NBE has lowered the top amounts while raising the lower amounts. The 0.50" figure will be confined to locations farther from the NYC area than had been my thinking last evening. The 6z GFS, 0z GGEM and 0z AIFS are in good agreement. The 0z ECMWF became notably wetter. However, it is an outlier among the operational models.

The key to achieving higher amounts, particularly those on the ECMWF, would be convective activity, possibly training thunderstorms. At present, most of the convective activity will likely take place south of the NYC region 

Trying to predict rainfall amounts in this set up is next to impossible IMO. Models don't have a handle on exactly where the heavier precip will occur. More than likely there will be a wide range of amounts spread throughout the region IMO.

[SACRUS]

56 / 42 NE flow - cool , cloudy showers.  What should tally up to 4 more days of mainly clouds with the brunt of the >1.00 - 2.00 inches of rain saturday night into Sunday night.  Pokes of some sun Monday and Tuesday but slow to clear out.  Much nicer Wed - Thu low 80s.   Next cut off backs down and in between Fri and through next weekend and id wager it trends unsettled as ridge balloons into candada.  Ridge finally expands east 6/3 - beyond pushing above normal overall. 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1964)
NYC: 94 (1964)
LGA: 94 (1964)
JFK: 92 (2021)


Lows:


EWR: 43 (1931)
NYC: 43 (1963)
LGA: 45 (1963)
JFK: 44 (1963)

Historical:

1783: Massachusetts lawyer James Otis often remarked to friends that when it was his time to die he hoped it would be by a bolt of lightning. Today he got his wish when he was leaning against a doorway in his home and lightning struck the chimney and traveled through the frame of the house, killing Mr. Otis. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1814: Hailstones as large as 11 inches in diameter and weighing a half pound reportedly pounded parts of New Hampshire. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1882 - An unusual late season snow blanketed eastern Iowa, with four to six inches reported around Washington. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1925: Record maximum temperature for Washington DC. for the date is 97 °F.  (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1953 - The temperature at Hollis OK soared from a morning low of 70 degrees to an afternoon high of 110 degrees to establish a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a busy day for thunderstorms in the central U.S. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Shreveport LA and golf ball size hail at Marfa, TX. Hobart, OK, received 3.55 inches of rain in the morning, and another 4.03 inches of rain that evening. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 8.5 inches of rain in two hours north of Potter, and 7.5 inches of rain in ninety minutes north of Minatare. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced five inches of hail at Greeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across much of the eastern U.S. Golf ball size hail was reported in Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina and Ohio. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Severe thunderstorms developing along a cold front resulted in 98 reports of large hail and damaging winds in the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Golf ball size hail caused a million dollars damage around Buffalo City, WI, baseball size hail was reported at Northfield and Randolph, MN, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 95 mph at Dunkerton, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in the south central U.S. Pueblo, CO, equalled their May record with a high of 98 degrees, and the high of 106 degrees at Midland, TX, marked a record six straight days of 100 degree heat. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A cold front crossing the western U.S. produced snow over parts of Oregon, California, Nevada, Idaho and Utah, with five inches reported at Austin NV, and four inches at Crater Lake National Park in Oregon. Strong winds behind the cold front sharply reduced visibilities in blowing dust over central California, and two multi-vehicle accidents resulted in one death and eighteen injuries. In northern Idaho, a cloud-burst washed tons of topsoil, and rocks as large as footballs, into the valley town of Culdesac. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: Thunderstorms in the Denver, CO area produced large hail up to golf ball size. An estimated 5,000 homes and 8,000 cars received considerable damage. Damage was estimated at $60 million dollars. Hail accumulated to a depth of 6 inches at Aurora. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: David McWilliams Ludlum was born 1910 in East Orange, NJ - He is responsible for researching and publishing Much of the early history of weather in early America. David died May 23, 1997 in Princeton, New Jersey. He was an American historian, meteorologist, entrepreneur and author. David M. Ludlum's death

2001: The temperature hit 116° at Palm Springs, CA. This tied their highest temperature for the month of May with 5/28/1983 & 5/28/2003. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2002: A Pacific storm system brought some much needed snow to the Colorado Mountains and foothills with a mix of rain on the Plains. Snowfall totals included: 13 inches at Coal Creek Canyon, 11 inches near Evergreen, CO. The former Stapleton International Airport at Denver reported less than an inch. Three temperature records were set. The morning low temperature of 31° was a record low; as was the morning low of 32° the following morning. The high temperature of only 48° equaled the record low maximum.

[SACRUS]

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

And of course I was heading to Yankee stadium with my son and a couple of friends.

Game cancelled.


.

Who determines if a game is postponed ? The home team or MLB ? Obviously  a decision favoring the Yankees because Tampa Bay is in first and HOT and the Yanks are NOT !

[Brian5671]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Who determines if a game is postponed ? The home team or MLB ? 

probably both get together to make a decision

[SACRUS]

Memorial Days in NYC

 

 

Year	Memorial Day Date	High	Low	Rain
2025	May 26	74	53	0.00"
2024	May 27	75	67	0.82"
2023	May 29	80	58	0.00"
2022	May 30	85	64	0.00"
2021	May 31	72	50	0.00"
2020	May 25	73	56	0.00"
2019	May 27	82	65	0.00"
2018	May 28	70	57	0.00"
2017	May 29	62	56	0.09"
2016	May 30	84	69	1.41"
2015	May 25	87	65	0.00"
2014	May 26	88	67	0.00"
2013	May 27	75	52	0.00"
2012	May 28	91	72	0.00"
2011	May 30	87	71	0.23"
2010	May 31	88	69	0.00"
2009	May 25	82	63	0.00"
2008	May 26	81	59	0.00"
2007	May 28	84	68	Trace
2006	May 29	89	67	0.00"
2005	May 30	76	58	Trace
2004	May 31	66	58	0.18"
2003	May 26	58	52	1.11"
2002	May 27	78	60	0.00"
2001	May 28	73	57	0.04"

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Trying to predict rainfall amounts in this set up is next to impossible IMO. Models don't have a handle on exactly where the heavier precip will occur. More than likely there will be a wide range of amounts spread throughout the region IMO.

I agree. This is a very challenging setup. 

[steve392]

In winter we have virga when radar shows snow but nothings falling.  What do we have when radar shows moderate rain but nothings falling?