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2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

Yeah, it might be hot.  I think we will survive.  Its been 90 already this year and we pulled through.

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2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to its full billing!

We’ve had mid to upper 90s heat waves in May before, that’s not unprecedented. It also might be for just half this subforum since a lot of it looks southerly wind driven. Maybe we get another crazy Ambrose Jet day or two in this and the immediate south shore can’t get above 70. 

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3 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, it might be hot.  I think we will survive.  Its been 90 already this year and we pulled through.

The usual warm spots will be 95+ next Tuesday. That's unusual for mid-late May! Most max record highs for our area in the month of May are between 95-99 degrees.

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The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s tomorrow. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. 

The warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps the lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will likely be the hottest day so far this year. Thursday will still be warm. Afterward, it will turn much cooler.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -15.45 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.456 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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4 hours ago, [email protected] said:

The usual warm spots will be 95+ next Tuesday. That's unusual for mid-late May! Most max record highs for our area in the month of May are between 95-99 degrees.

To me the heat we had back in April was more impressive considering that was a month ago.  Coming up to the last 2 weeks of May, we typically see bursts of heat like this.  By Thursday it looks to cool down, so it's really just 3-4 days of heat.

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

To me the heat we had back in April was more impressive considering that was a month ago.  Coming up to the last 2 weeks of May, we typically see bursts of heat like this.  By Thursday it looks to cool down, so it's really just 3-4 days of heat.

the heat in april was with low dewpoints very dry.

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17 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

The model mean is currently 94-99° for the usual NJ warm spots. So the drought both in the source region and locally should enhance. Since this is one of the worst droughts across the CONUS for the month of May.

The record NJ high for the month of May is 99°. So some monthly maxes could be in jeopardy. Still around 5 days out so we can still refine. NJ made it to 98° in May back in 2022.

In any event, we haven’t seen this type of May heat before leading into such a strong El Niño. May 2015 only made it to 91° in Newark. 
 

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Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Highest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1996 99 0
2 2022 98 0
- 1992 98 0
- 1987 98 0
- 1962 98 0
3 1965 97 0
- 1895 97 0
4 2021 96 0
- 2016 96 0
- 1969 96 0
- 1964 96 0
- 1914 96 0
- 1880 96 0
5 2010 95 0
- 1994 95 0
- 1986 95 0
- 1941 95 0
- 1939 95 0


The strongest developing El Niño May maxes

 

2023 90 0

 

2015 91 0

 

1997 86

 

1982 85
1972 82


 

 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This upcoming heat looks very meh east of the city. Maybe mid 80s or so on the N Shore? The south shore might struggle past 70 if we have strong S wind every day. 

Kind of happy about that-I'll take 85 vs 97

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21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This upcoming heat looks very meh east of the city. Maybe mid 80s or so on the N Shore? The south shore might struggle past 70 if we have strong S wind every day. 

Yeah, I can remember days like this living in Long Beach. Current forecast is for 40mph or higher SSW gusts along the South Shore Tuesday and Wednesday. So plenty of dangerous rip currents expected. People should stay out of the water especially before the lifeguard season starts. 
 

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IMG_6377.thumb.png.d4cabf20a858136b362a60c70c80af92.png

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56  / 44 coolest of the next 10 or longer as the ull cutoff spins through with breaks of sun and isolated showers capped in the 60s.  Ramp up and warm up Sat 80s  - sun - wed 80s / 90s in areas - Peak heat is Tue and maybe Wed pending on the timing of the front with clouds.  Next shot at rain is showers / storms from the front wed with potental >0.5 of rain.  Ridge remains in the east and outside a ULL / custoff pegged around the Memorial day weekend  (which could be split nice/vs not so nice )  TBD track, it looks overall warm - hot at times through then and beyond.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:
 

 

EWR: 92 (2018)
NYC: 90 (1900)
LGA: 92 (2018)
JFK: 82 (2007)

 

Lows:

EWR: 40 (1939)
NYC: 42 (1947)
LGA: 43 (1947)
JFK: 44 (1966)

Historical:

 

1834 - The Northern Atlantic Coast States were in the midst of their greatest May snowstorm of record. The hills around Newbury, VT, were covered with two to three feet of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1834: A wintry period from the Great Lakes to parts of New England. 6 inch snow in Erie, PA (14th); 12 inches in Rutland, VT, by p.m. today; Newbury, VT received 2 feet (sleighs on roads on 16th), while Haverhill, NH, vicinity had 2 feet in valleys and 3 feet on hills.

1896: A tornado with F5 intensity struck Sherman, TX killing 73 people; 60 of them in downtown. Tornado victims were found as far as 400 yards away from their original location. A trunk lid was carried 35 miles by the twister. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1949: A violent F4 tornado moved through Amarillo, TX. The tornado tracked through the Amarillo Airport and damaged or destroyed 45 aircraft. Seven people were killed and 82 were injured. Damage was set at $4.8 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1951: On this date through the 24th, Hurricane Able does loop-the-loop north of the Bahamas and reaches Category 3 strength off Cape Hatteras, NC.

1962: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date 94 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1966: The NIMBUS II satellite was launched on this date. NIMBUS I had malfunctioned and was never operational. The arrival on the scene of the NIMBUS satellites eliminated the threat of tropical cyclones striking without warning ever again. Polar orbiting satellites, the NIMBUS series gave meteorologists worldwide coverage at least once per day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968 - A tornado touched down southwest of Anchorage, AK. It was the second of just three tornadoes reported in Alaska since 1950. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - The worst ice jam flooding of memory for long-time residents took place along the Kuskokwim River and Yukon River in Alaska. It was the first time since 1890 that the two rivers "flowed as one". The towns of Oscarville and Napaskiak were completely inundated. (15th-31st) (The Weather Channel)

1985: Marion, NC received 6 inches of rain in just one hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather returned to the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Janestown, ND, with a reading of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms in Utah produced five inches of rain south of Bicknell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 80 mph in Oklahoma County, and baseball size hail at Pawnee. Hail piled up to a depth of 18 inches south of Pawnee. Hail damage in Oklahoma was estimated at close to 25 million dollars. Thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced golf ball size hail around Cleveland, OH, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Angola, IN. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along and north of a stationary front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, and there were 145 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Softball size hail caused 2.1 million dollars damage at Sherman, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Central Plains Region and Oklahoma to Indiana and western Kentucky. Thunderstorms spawned fifteen tornadoes, including seven in Oklahoma, and there were 165 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A tornado killed one person, injured a dozen others, and caused four million dollars damage at Stillwater, OK. Another tornado injured eight persons at Foyil, OK. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma also produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Oologah Lake, and softball size hail at Canton and north of Oakwood. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: A series of slow moving thunderstorms moved over Bennett County in South Dakota. Not only did 5 to 6 inches of rain fall in the Martin and Tuthill area, but marble to golf ball size hail fell for an extended period of time. So much hail fell that it actually piled into drifts as high as 6 feet.
A flash flood threatened 16 children and 3 adults on a field trip in Little Grand Canyon, in southern Illinois' Shawnee National Forest. While trying to escape the rising waters, a teacher and three children fell into a creek and were swept downstream about a mile. They were later rescued by helicopter.
At least five tornadoes struck the western and northwestern parts of Texas. The strongest tornado was sighted near Laverne, which was rated as an F3. The tornado was 800 to 900 yards wide, and its path was 11.5 miles long. Three injuries resulted in the Laverne area. This storm also produced hail the size of grapefruits.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: About 5 miles north of Charleston and Ingalls, KS strong thunderstorm winds gusting to over 100 mph snapped off 150 power poles and 40 pivot sprinklers were damaged or destroyed, along with trees and fences. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

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Dep through May 14 first two weeks of the month, should erase this in a weeks time and see + dep by the 21

 

Almost to the halfway point

NYC: -2.2
LGA: -2.1
JFK: -1.1
EWR: -0.9

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I can remember days like this living in Long Beach. Current forecast is for 40mph or higher SSW gusts along the South Shore Tuesday and Wednesday. So plenty of dangerous rip currents expected. People should stay out of the water especially before the lifeguard season starts. 
 

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Jones Beach water temp is still 52-53. That’ll put a hard stop on any temp climb on the south shore with that kind of S wind. Probably a full on Ambrose Jet day or two thrown in. Even here might be hard to get much above 80. 

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6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

the heat in april was with low dewpoints very dry.

Right but relative to the normal temps it was more extreme.  Naturally, dewpoints are going to increase as we approach June.  

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51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jones Beach water temp is still 52-53. That’ll put a hard stop on any temp climb on the south shore with that kind of S wind. Probably a full on Ambrose Jet day or two thrown in. Even here might be hard to get much above 80. 

Yeah, Islip is only ranked 13th warmest this spring for average high temperature due to the strong onshore flow influence. Areas to the west of the sea breeze are the top 5 for spring warmth. So next week looks like more of the same theme. 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Average Max Temp Mar 1 to May 14
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-05-14 60.5 0
2 2025-05-14 60.0 0
- 2012-05-14 60.0 0
3 2023-05-14 58.5 0
4 1991-05-14 58.1 0
5 2021-05-14 57.8 0
- 1999-05-14 57.8 0
6 2024-05-14 57.6 0
- 1977-05-14 57.6 0
- 1976-05-14 57.6 0
7 2002-05-14 57.5 0
8 2000-05-14 57.4 0
9 2016-05-14 57.1 0
10 1973-05-14 57.0 0
11 1985-05-14 56.9 0
12 2022-05-14 56.7 0
13 2026-05-14 56.4 0
14 2008-05-14 56.3 0
15 2006-05-14 56.2 0
- 1974-05-14 56.2 0

 

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2012-05-14 62.7 0
2 2025-05-14 62.4 0
3 2010-05-14 62.3 0
4 2026-05-14 61.5 0
5 2023-05-14 60.3 0
6 2024-05-14 60.2 0
7 2021-05-14 59.4 0
8 2016-05-14 59.3 0
9 2006-05-14 58.5 0
10 2004-05-14 58.1 0

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2010-05-14 64.6 0
2 2025-05-14 64.5 0
3 2012-05-14 63.9 0
4 2026-05-14 63.8 0
5 2000-05-14 63.4 0
6 2002-05-14 62.5 0
7 2006-05-14 62.2 0
8 2024-05-14 62.1 0
9 2023-05-14 61.8 0
10 2021-05-14 61.6 0

 


 

 

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Jones Beach water temp is still 52-53. That’ll put a hard stop on any temp climb on the south shore with that kind of S wind. Probably a full on Ambrose Jet day or two thrown in. Even here might be hard to get much above 80. 

The other day was nuts with gusts near 50mph for a few hours. The resulting sandstorm will keep people off the beach regardless. When the sand is dry and winds are over 40 you have to be insane to be on the beach.


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It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° tomorrow. Sunday will be even warmer with temperatures topping out in the middle and perhaps upper 80s.  

Even as Monday will be a bit cooler than Sunday, the warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps the lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will likely be the hottest day so far this year. Thursday will still be warm. Afterward, it will turn much cooler.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -18.21 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.462 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I wonder if this cool pattern interupted by a week of extreme heat continues into summer?

Been weird…March April and now May 

Yeah I can't necessarily remember a consistent pattern like this where it goes from so warm to so cool each month of Spring.

In April you had 90's then 20's.  This week my forecast high on Tuesday is 98, then next Saturday it's 60..

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62 / 51 and on the way to upper 70s to low/mid 80s today.  A touch warmer tomorrow with some mid 80s and some stray 90.  About the same Monday before stronger heat  low - mid 90s Tue / Wed.  Wed front / clouds timing the caveat.  Front comes through Wed night into Thu with the next shot at rain / showers / thunderstorms >.50.  Cools down Thu - Sat before warming back up as ridge builds over Memoridal day weekend. Overall warmer beyond with next shot at heat 5/26 - 5/30.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1951)
NYC: 90 (1951)
LGA: 90 (1951)
JFK: 83 (1993)

 

Lows:

EWR: 40 (2016)
NYC: 42 (1878)
LGA: 41 (1983)
JFK: 43 (1983)

Historical:


1858: Richmond, Va. Area - Chesterfield County, VA Terrible Hail Storm Damage - Sunday, May 16, 1858: A terrible hail storm occurred in Chesterfield County last evening. Some of the stones were of the size of hen's eggs. Vegetation was destroyed, the ground strewn with the leaves and branches of trees, and a great many windows broken. The hail was from two to three feet deep in some places in the roads. The train from Petersburg last evening came in contact with a fallen tree, and the engine and cars were much damaged. The storm is unprecedented. The New York Times, New York - May 17,1858 by Stu Beitler

1874 - The Mill Creek disaster occurred west of Northhampton MA. Dam slippage resulted in a flash flood which claimed 143 lives, and caused a million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)


1883: A three-day flood was in progress throughout the Black Hills of South Dakota which resulted in damages over one million dollars in the Rapid City area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1898: Heavy hail many windows broken in Baltimore along with 1.38 inches of precipitation.

1899: A tornado causing F4 damage moved east northeast from 3 miles northwest of Greeley in Delaware County, Iowa to northwest of Colesburg into Clayton County, Iowa. At least five farms were hit. The tornado narrowed to only 75 yards near Colesburg and swept away all buildings including homes on three of the farms. Two people were killed in one family and four others may have died later. Four men were caught in the one mile from Colesburg and two of them were killed as they looked for shelter. A tombstone of some kind was reportedly carried for two miles. This tornado killed 4 people, all in Clayton County and injured 14 others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1911: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 93 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1924 - The temperature at Blitzen OR soared to 108 degrees to set a state record for the month of May. The record was later tied at Pelton Dam on the 31st of May in 1986. (The Weather Channel)

1943: A late season storm brought 10 inches of snow to Cheyenne, WY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1946: A severe hailstorm at San Antonio, TX caused $5 million dollars damage and injured 20 people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1952 - High winds in the Wasatch Canyon of Utah struck Ogden and Brigham City. Winds at Hill Air Force Base gusted to 92 mph. (The Weather Channel)

1968: A tornado skipped for 45 miles from south of Wabash to New Haven, IN. A woman was killed when her mobile home was blown across a highway and demolished. New Haven was hardest hit with 15 homes damaged. Planes were damaged at the Wabash Airport. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975: Wildwood, Fla.--One man was killed by lightning and one injured in an open field as they were running for shelter. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1983: A very strong spring storm dumped heavy snow across the Front Range in Colorado. Strong winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph produced blizzard conditions at times. The Foothills received 1 to 2 feet of snow with 4 to 12 inches along the Foothills. Blowing snow whipped the snow into drifts several feet deep closing schools and highways. Power outages occurred; with 20 square miles of Denver blacked out. Hundreds of passengers were stranded as only half of runways were open at Stapleton International Airport. The high temperature at Denver the next day of just 40° set a record low maximum. Much of the snow melted on the 18th as temperatures rebounded into the middle and upper 50s causing widespread street flooding. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - It was a summer-like day as thunderstorms abounded across the nation. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Guadelupe County with more than three inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Florida to New York State. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Havre, MT, reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms spawned twenty tornadoes, and there were 180 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado at Cleburne, TX, caused 30 million dollars damage. A violent (F-4) tornado touched down near Brackettville, TX, and a strong (F-3) tornado killed one person and injured 28 others at Jarrell, TX. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Shamrock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to the Upper Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including a twister which killed one person and injured another north of Corning, AR. There were 128 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person and injured six others at Folsomville, IN, and injured another five persons in southeastern Hardin County KY. In Arkansas, baseball size hail was reported near Fouke and near El Dorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: At least 6 tornadoes struck parts of northeastern Oklahoma. The strongest rated an F2, struck Catoosa, causing an estimated $130,000 dollars in damage, but no injuries. Severe thunderstorms produced hail 5 inches in diameter at Wichita, KS. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1995: On this date through the 17th, 6.55 inches of rain fell at St. Louis, MO. This is the fifth greatest 24-hour total amount of precipitation for that location. 5.73 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MO making it the sixth greatest 24-hour total amount of precipitation for that location.

1997: Sioux City, Iowa: Sioux City sets daily high and low records on same day: 91 °F and 22 °F, respectively. The record is fortuitous as on no earlier spring date was the record low temperature so high, and on only one May date was the record high any lower. (Ref. WxDoctor)
3.2 inches of snow fell at Marquette, MI bringing their seasonal accumulation to 272 inches to establish the all-time record seasonal snow total for Marquette County Airport. It was also the fifth consecutive day with measurable snow, setting the record for consecutive days with measurable snow during the month of May. While mid-May snow is unusual, it's not the latest in the season it has ever snowed at Marquette. The latest measurable snow there is 0.2 inches on 6/2/1910. The latest date with at least 1-inch of snow is 5/29/1947 with 2.1 inches of snow falling. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: As a mother and daughter were driving to a more substantial shelter from their mobile home in Logan, IA when a tornado began to overtake their car. They followed the old advice of seeking shelter in a ditch. As they huddled in the ditch, a large piece of farm equipment and a car fell on them, killing the daughter and injuring the mother. Such incidents have caused Meteorologists and safety experts to question the old standard advice of leaving your car to seek shelter in a ditch when a tornado approaches. The most important advice is not to be caught out during a tornado situation.
Lightning struck a home at Rochester, MN blowing a hole in the wall of the kitchen as well as blasting the bark off a tree in the backyard. In addition, the lightning also set off an explosion in a nearby sewer, which damaged three homes and caused a gasoline leak. Several neighborhoods were evacuated. Damage was estimated at $25,000 dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: Most rivers across central and southeast Illinois were flooding, due to runoff from heavier rain several days earlier. The Embarras River at Lawrenceville, IL crested at record levels on this date, while the Sangamon River crested from the 14th through this date at 2nd to 3rd highest levels on record. The Illinois River would crest later in the month around the third highest level on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2006: Lightning caused a fire that ruined a refurbished World War II barracks on the FAU campus in Boca Raton, Florida. The the barracks was made of Dade County pine the 21,000 square feet barracks was dedicated 10 days before the fire and was nominated for the National Registry of Historical Places. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

2010: Hail to softball size pounded a northwest to southeast track across the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, metro area. Many expensive homes in Nichols Hills had total roof damage; many windows shattered in homes and vehicles. Hail fog obscured what appeared to be a snow-covered ground after the storm. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

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