May 2026

[Prue11]

.11” so far 

[Brian5671]

just some sprinkles here from time to time.

[[email protected]]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if Philly can record their first 3 consecutive years under 40.00” since the early 1990s .

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain.

The hope is that the STJ can come far enough north with the developing super El Niño to increase the rainfall enough in coming months to get over 40.00” by the end of December. 

Many spots have been running drier than average starting with the big dip in rainfall in September into October 2024.

Monthly Total Precipitation for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026	2.84	2.24	1.90	2.11	0.37	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	9.46
2025	0.93	2.05	5.36	2.83	6.22	2.20	4.61	1.73	1.79	2.02	2.30	3.35	35.39
2024	5.91	1.49	7.19	4.16	1.72	4.68	2.44	5.07	0.77	T	2.52	3.45	39.40
2023	3.36	1.32	1.99	5.17	0.24	4.24	5.24	3.25	5.99	0.72	2.75	7.92	42.19
2022	3.35	2.87	2.09	4.51	4.16	5.03	2.20	2.70	2.06	5.80	2.89	4.85	42.51
2021	1.55	4.64	4.21	2.69	3.24	3.06	6.72	6.18	4.61	4.81	0.46	1.64	43.81
2020	2.64	2.46	3.94	3.75	2.20	3.21	5.54	8.53	4.23	4.09	4.79	4.38	49.76
2019	3.92	3.27	3.85	3.02	5.22	7.94	6.03	2.78	1.16	3.87	1.16	5.21	47.43
2018	2.85	6.02	4.74	3.94	5.21	3.34	3.06	4.11	9.76	3.08	9.03	6.38	61.52
2017	2.91	1.30	4.26	3.15	6.33	1.86	5.35	6.05	3.86	3.66	1.30	1.31	41.34
2016	2.63	4.36	2.01	1.75	6.65	1.87	3.88	1.70	3.52	2.06	2.17	2.72	35.32
2015	4.52	2.36	5.52	3.58	1.19	8.88	3.16	0.98	6.27	3.76	1.89	5.14	47.25
2014	3.55	5.12	4.23	6.69	2.91	5.46	4.30	3.55	1.69	2.53	4.07	3.27	47.37
2013	3.34	2.12	2.42	2.32	2.33	10.56	13.24	5.91	3.26	2.45	2.73	5.20	55.88
2012	2.59	1.84	0.79	2.55	3.35	2.94	1.48	5.37	5.48	4.08	1.05	4.42	35.94
2011	3.39	2.65	4.29	5.29	1.91	2.56	2.71	19.31	10.27	3.71	3.87	4.37	64.33
2010	2.19	5.75	7.33	2.65	2.53	2.05	6.28	2.19	3.48	5.01	1.76	3.24	44.46
2009	2.70	0.84	1.62	3.99	4.84	4.79	3.35	10.29	3.65	5.51	2.06	8.86	52.50
2008	1.74	3.93	3.67	2.19	4.55	2.87	3.45	2.44	4.31	1.59	4.02	5.57	40.33
2007	3.35	1.73	3.82	9.05	2.68	4.02	3.44	2.94	0.58	4.66	1.45	4.41	42.13
2006	4.34	1.51	0.91	3.71	2.16	7.95	4.27	3.93	5.97	6.42	4.88	2.15	48.20
2005	4.45	2.61	3.66	5.32	1.27	3.31	4.31	2.57	0.21	8.68	2.86	2.97	42.22
2004	1.70	2.50	3.54	6.02	3.62	4.57	7.91	4.17	5.19	2.24	4.55	3.17	49.18
2003	1.93	5.04	4.09	2.20	4.17	8.08	2.01	3.26	4.66	4.45	2.63	5.46	47.98
2002	2.43	0.55	4.03	2.17	3.57	3.73	2.12	2.47	3.67	5.90	4.65	4.05	39.34
2001	2.77	3.04	5.44	1.49	3.99	5.93	1.30	0.97	2.58	0.83	0.56	2.11	31.01
2000	3.22	2.02	6.32	3.05	3.03	3.82	5.54	2.90	8.28	1.51	2.21	2.82	44.72
1999	4.89	2.95	4.02	3.31	3.70	1.16	1.22	5.32	13.07	3.55	2.31	2.99	48.49
1998	4.24	3.25	3.93	2.70	3.87	4.91	1.79	1.26	1.86	1.84	1.18	0.82	31.65
1997	2.80	2.48	3.91	2.58	2.32	1.49	2.38	4.56	1.59	1.83	3.49	3.09	32.52
1996	4.39	2.12	4.27	4.48	3.25	4.73	8.17	4.29	4.95	4.30	3.03	8.47	56.45
1995	3.10	2.41	1.67	1.96	2.67	0.62	2.92	1.15	3.55	5.99	3.34	2.15	31.53
1994	4.27	3.27	6.44	2.86	3.66	1.74	10.42	4.54	1.64	0.94	3.03	2.11	44.92
1993	1.97	3.03	6.61	4.20	2.42	1.52	1.98	5.18	6.66	2.69	2.23	3.69	42.18
1992	0.88	1.31	3.19	1.26	2.74	1.84	5.05	2.00	3.04	1.23	3.26	4.61	30.41
1991	4.10	0.75	4.13	2.81	1.82	3.36	4.79	3.86	3.58	1.61	1.55	3.86	36.22
1990	4.09	1.44	2.59	3.16	6.08	3.39	2.62	4.07	1.71	1.68	1.17	3.79	35.79
1989	2.41	3.25	4.41	2.27	6.76	4.73	9.44	3.92	5.03	3.44	1.79	1.21	48.66
1988	2.72	4.11	2.24	2.92	3.67	0.57	8.07	3.16	2.62	2.16	5.17	1.00	38.41
1987	4.58	1.17	1.16	3.63	3.15	2.01	4.82	3.72	2.78	2.62	2.08	1.68	33.40
1986	4.13	3.38	1.25	4.46	0.70	1.99	4.10	3.70	2.33	2.22	6.27	5.89	40.42
1985	1.55	2.44	1.95	0.52	4.99	1.88	4.66	2.82	5.78	1.54	6.09	0.98	35.20
1984	2.22	2.81	6.14	4.25	6.87	2.85	6.99	3.28	1.96	2.56	1.56	2.17	43.66
1983	2.81	3.53	6.95	8.12	7.03	2.75	0.68	2.57	3.45	3.69	5.71	7.37	54.66
1982	4.45	3.16	2.66	6.06	4.47	5.76	1.94	2.20	2.32	1.94	3.67	1.80	40.43
1981	0.50	2.94	1.61	3.60	4.53	4.40	4.54	5.11	2.83	2.68	0.95	4.14	37.83
1980	2.27	0.96	7.01	4.79	3.22	1.73	6.58	0.80	2.79	5.03	2.85	0.77	38.80
1979	8.74	6.44	2.43	4.08	3.98	4.34	3.95	5.95	4.89	3.84	2.48	1.67	52.79
1978	8.86	1.35	4.31	1.76	6.01	1.75	5.27	6.04	1.59	1.20	2.20	5.61	45.95
1977	2.61	1.33	4.19	5.59	0.70	5.33	1.47	8.70	3.44	3.11	7.76	5.19	49.42
1976	4.50	1.66	2.38	2.06	4.35	3.42	4.04	2.17	2.44	4.30	0.32	1.63	33.27
1975	4.00	2.91	4.68	2.97	4.99	7.57	6.32	2.21	7.21	3.24	3.14	2.89	52.13
1974	2.95	2.14	4.91	2.77	3.21	4.43	2.08	3.83	4.68	1.93	0.81	4.04	37.78
1973	3.93	2.96	3.52	6.68	4.14	7.88	2.39	2.03	3.39	2.16	0.64	6.34	46.06
1972	2.34	5.09	2.69	4.08	4.11	5.79	2.62	3.76	1.12	3.77	9.06	5.20	49.63
1971	2.13	5.43	2.58	1.84	4.10	1.01	4.84	9.61	5.83	3.84	5.37	1.21	47.79
1970	0.74	2.08	3.83	6.12	2.57	4.60	2.75	3.99	0.82	3.66	4.71	3.27	39.14
1969	1.57	1.88	1.92	1.68	3.30	7.31	8.33	2.66	4.38	1.13	1.97	7.23	43.36
1968	2.90	1.40	4.98	1.57	5.17	5.89	2.00	1.24	0.44	3.15	4.17	2.54	35.45
1967	1.67	1.82	4.53	2.17	3.49	4.12	7.11	7.08	2.96	2.00	1.99	5.88	44.82
1966	2.82	4.30	0.68	4.35	2.95	0.41	2.35	1.63	8.70	5.12	2.36	4.33	40.00
1965	2.35	2.18	3.19	2.33	1.23	2.85	3.22	4.05	3.02	2.02	1.05	1.85	29.34
1964	3.92	2.83	1.94	5.27	0.47	0.21	3.83	0.49	2.42	1.73	1.64	5.13	29.88
1963	2.31	2.19	3.94	1.13	1.06	2.88	3.13	3.35	6.44	0.09	6.67	1.76	34.95

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

Yeah, it might be hot.  I think we will survive.  Its been 90 already this year and we pulled through.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to its full billing!

We’ve had mid to upper 90s heat waves in May before, that’s not unprecedented. It also might be for just half this subforum since a lot of it looks southerly wind driven. Maybe we get another crazy Ambrose Jet day or two in this and the immediate south shore can’t get above 70. 

[Brian5671]

Given the dry soil conditions-the hot spots could maybe do upper 90's

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the dry soil conditions-the hot spots could maybe do upper 90's

I'm thinking my location will hit 97 or 98 on Tuesday. 

[[email protected]]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, it might be hot.  I think we will survive.  Its been 90 already this year and we pulled through.

The usual warm spots will be 95+ next Tuesday. That's unusual for mid-late May! Most max record highs for our area in the month of May are between 95-99 degrees.

[Santa Claus]

chilly and breezy behind the front innit

[donsutherland1]

The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s tomorrow. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. 

The warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps the lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will likely be the hottest day so far this year. Thursday will still be warm. Afterward, it will turn much cooler.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -15.45 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.456 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Fun fact: Providence's highest temperature ever recorded in April is higher than its highest temperature ever recorded in May. In fact, it took until last year (when it reached 100 on June 24) for Providence to record a June temperature that was higher than its April 1976 record high.

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, [email protected] said:

The usual warm spots will be 95+ next Tuesday. That's unusual for mid-late May! Most max record highs for our area in the month of May are between 95-99 degrees.

To me the heat we had back in April was more impressive considering that was a month ago.  Coming up to the last 2 weeks of May, we typically see bursts of heat like this.  By Thursday it looks to cool down, so it's really just 3-4 days of heat.

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

To me the heat we had back in April was more impressive considering that was a month ago.  Coming up to the last 2 weeks of May, we typically see bursts of heat like this.  By Thursday it looks to cool down, so it's really just 3-4 days of heat.

the heat in april was with low dewpoints very dry.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

The model mean is currently 94-99° for the usual NJ warm spots. So the drought both in the source region and locally should enhance. Since this is one of the worst droughts across the CONUS for the month of May.

The record NJ high for the month of May is 99°. So some monthly maxes could be in jeopardy. Still around 5 days out so we can still refine. NJ made it to 98° in May back in 2022.

In any event, we haven’t seen this type of May heat before leading into such a strong El Niño. May 2015 only made it to 91° in Newark. 
 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Highest Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1996	99	0
2	2022	98	0
-	1992	98	0
-	1987	98	0
-	1962	98	0
3	1965	97	0
-	1895	97	0
4	2021	96	0
-	2016	96	0
-	1969	96	0
-	1964	96	0
-	1914	96	0
-	1880	96	0
5	2010	95	0
-	1994	95	0
-	1986	95	0
-	1941	95	0
-	1939	95	0

The strongest developing El Niño May maxes

 

2023

90

0

 

2015

91

0

 

1997

86

 

1982

85

1972

82

 

 

[jm1220]

This upcoming heat looks very meh east of the city. Maybe mid 80s or so on the N Shore? The south shore might struggle past 70 if we have strong S wind every day. 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This upcoming heat looks very meh east of the city. Maybe mid 80s or so on the N Shore? The south shore might struggle past 70 if we have strong S wind every day. 

Kind of happy about that-I'll take 85 vs 97

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This upcoming heat looks very meh east of the city. Maybe mid 80s or so on the N Shore? The south shore might struggle past 70 if we have strong S wind every day. 

Yeah, I can remember days like this living in Long Beach. Current forecast is for 40mph or higher SSW gusts along the South Shore Tuesday and Wednesday. So plenty of dangerous rip currents expected. People should stay out of the water especially before the lifeguard season starts. 
 

[SACRUS]

56  / 44 coolest of the next 10 or longer as the ull cutoff spins through with breaks of sun and isolated showers capped in the 60s.  Ramp up and warm up Sat 80s  - sun - wed 80s / 90s in areas - Peak heat is Tue and maybe Wed pending on the timing of the front with clouds.  Next shot at rain is showers / storms from the front wed with potental >0.5 of rain.  Ridge remains in the east and outside a ULL / custoff pegged around the Memorial day weekend  (which could be split nice/vs not so nice )  TBD track, it looks overall warm - hot at times through then and beyond.