May 2026

[Prue11]

.11” so far 

[Brian5671]

just some sprinkles here from time to time.

[[email protected]]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if Philly can record their first 3 consecutive years under 40.00” since the early 1990s .

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain.

The hope is that the STJ can come far enough north with the developing super El Niño to increase the rainfall enough in coming months to get over 40.00” by the end of December. 

Many spots have been running drier than average starting with the big dip in rainfall in September into October 2024.

Monthly Total Precipitation for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026	2.84	2.24	1.90	2.11	0.37	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	9.46
2025	0.93	2.05	5.36	2.83	6.22	2.20	4.61	1.73	1.79	2.02	2.30	3.35	35.39
2024	5.91	1.49	7.19	4.16	1.72	4.68	2.44	5.07	0.77	T	2.52	3.45	39.40
2023	3.36	1.32	1.99	5.17	0.24	4.24	5.24	3.25	5.99	0.72	2.75	7.92	42.19
2022	3.35	2.87	2.09	4.51	4.16	5.03	2.20	2.70	2.06	5.80	2.89	4.85	42.51
2021	1.55	4.64	4.21	2.69	3.24	3.06	6.72	6.18	4.61	4.81	0.46	1.64	43.81
2020	2.64	2.46	3.94	3.75	2.20	3.21	5.54	8.53	4.23	4.09	4.79	4.38	49.76
2019	3.92	3.27	3.85	3.02	5.22	7.94	6.03	2.78	1.16	3.87	1.16	5.21	47.43
2018	2.85	6.02	4.74	3.94	5.21	3.34	3.06	4.11	9.76	3.08	9.03	6.38	61.52
2017	2.91	1.30	4.26	3.15	6.33	1.86	5.35	6.05	3.86	3.66	1.30	1.31	41.34
2016	2.63	4.36	2.01	1.75	6.65	1.87	3.88	1.70	3.52	2.06	2.17	2.72	35.32
2015	4.52	2.36	5.52	3.58	1.19	8.88	3.16	0.98	6.27	3.76	1.89	5.14	47.25
2014	3.55	5.12	4.23	6.69	2.91	5.46	4.30	3.55	1.69	2.53	4.07	3.27	47.37
2013	3.34	2.12	2.42	2.32	2.33	10.56	13.24	5.91	3.26	2.45	2.73	5.20	55.88
2012	2.59	1.84	0.79	2.55	3.35	2.94	1.48	5.37	5.48	4.08	1.05	4.42	35.94
2011	3.39	2.65	4.29	5.29	1.91	2.56	2.71	19.31	10.27	3.71	3.87	4.37	64.33
2010	2.19	5.75	7.33	2.65	2.53	2.05	6.28	2.19	3.48	5.01	1.76	3.24	44.46
2009	2.70	0.84	1.62	3.99	4.84	4.79	3.35	10.29	3.65	5.51	2.06	8.86	52.50
2008	1.74	3.93	3.67	2.19	4.55	2.87	3.45	2.44	4.31	1.59	4.02	5.57	40.33
2007	3.35	1.73	3.82	9.05	2.68	4.02	3.44	2.94	0.58	4.66	1.45	4.41	42.13
2006	4.34	1.51	0.91	3.71	2.16	7.95	4.27	3.93	5.97	6.42	4.88	2.15	48.20
2005	4.45	2.61	3.66	5.32	1.27	3.31	4.31	2.57	0.21	8.68	2.86	2.97	42.22
2004	1.70	2.50	3.54	6.02	3.62	4.57	7.91	4.17	5.19	2.24	4.55	3.17	49.18
2003	1.93	5.04	4.09	2.20	4.17	8.08	2.01	3.26	4.66	4.45	2.63	5.46	47.98
2002	2.43	0.55	4.03	2.17	3.57	3.73	2.12	2.47	3.67	5.90	4.65	4.05	39.34
2001	2.77	3.04	5.44	1.49	3.99	5.93	1.30	0.97	2.58	0.83	0.56	2.11	31.01
2000	3.22	2.02	6.32	3.05	3.03	3.82	5.54	2.90	8.28	1.51	2.21	2.82	44.72
1999	4.89	2.95	4.02	3.31	3.70	1.16	1.22	5.32	13.07	3.55	2.31	2.99	48.49
1998	4.24	3.25	3.93	2.70	3.87	4.91	1.79	1.26	1.86	1.84	1.18	0.82	31.65
1997	2.80	2.48	3.91	2.58	2.32	1.49	2.38	4.56	1.59	1.83	3.49	3.09	32.52
1996	4.39	2.12	4.27	4.48	3.25	4.73	8.17	4.29	4.95	4.30	3.03	8.47	56.45
1995	3.10	2.41	1.67	1.96	2.67	0.62	2.92	1.15	3.55	5.99	3.34	2.15	31.53
1994	4.27	3.27	6.44	2.86	3.66	1.74	10.42	4.54	1.64	0.94	3.03	2.11	44.92
1993	1.97	3.03	6.61	4.20	2.42	1.52	1.98	5.18	6.66	2.69	2.23	3.69	42.18
1992	0.88	1.31	3.19	1.26	2.74	1.84	5.05	2.00	3.04	1.23	3.26	4.61	30.41
1991	4.10	0.75	4.13	2.81	1.82	3.36	4.79	3.86	3.58	1.61	1.55	3.86	36.22
1990	4.09	1.44	2.59	3.16	6.08	3.39	2.62	4.07	1.71	1.68	1.17	3.79	35.79
1989	2.41	3.25	4.41	2.27	6.76	4.73	9.44	3.92	5.03	3.44	1.79	1.21	48.66
1988	2.72	4.11	2.24	2.92	3.67	0.57	8.07	3.16	2.62	2.16	5.17	1.00	38.41
1987	4.58	1.17	1.16	3.63	3.15	2.01	4.82	3.72	2.78	2.62	2.08	1.68	33.40
1986	4.13	3.38	1.25	4.46	0.70	1.99	4.10	3.70	2.33	2.22	6.27	5.89	40.42
1985	1.55	2.44	1.95	0.52	4.99	1.88	4.66	2.82	5.78	1.54	6.09	0.98	35.20
1984	2.22	2.81	6.14	4.25	6.87	2.85	6.99	3.28	1.96	2.56	1.56	2.17	43.66
1983	2.81	3.53	6.95	8.12	7.03	2.75	0.68	2.57	3.45	3.69	5.71	7.37	54.66
1982	4.45	3.16	2.66	6.06	4.47	5.76	1.94	2.20	2.32	1.94	3.67	1.80	40.43
1981	0.50	2.94	1.61	3.60	4.53	4.40	4.54	5.11	2.83	2.68	0.95	4.14	37.83
1980	2.27	0.96	7.01	4.79	3.22	1.73	6.58	0.80	2.79	5.03	2.85	0.77	38.80
1979	8.74	6.44	2.43	4.08	3.98	4.34	3.95	5.95	4.89	3.84	2.48	1.67	52.79
1978	8.86	1.35	4.31	1.76	6.01	1.75	5.27	6.04	1.59	1.20	2.20	5.61	45.95
1977	2.61	1.33	4.19	5.59	0.70	5.33	1.47	8.70	3.44	3.11	7.76	5.19	49.42
1976	4.50	1.66	2.38	2.06	4.35	3.42	4.04	2.17	2.44	4.30	0.32	1.63	33.27
1975	4.00	2.91	4.68	2.97	4.99	7.57	6.32	2.21	7.21	3.24	3.14	2.89	52.13
1974	2.95	2.14	4.91	2.77	3.21	4.43	2.08	3.83	4.68	1.93	0.81	4.04	37.78
1973	3.93	2.96	3.52	6.68	4.14	7.88	2.39	2.03	3.39	2.16	0.64	6.34	46.06
1972	2.34	5.09	2.69	4.08	4.11	5.79	2.62	3.76	1.12	3.77	9.06	5.20	49.63
1971	2.13	5.43	2.58	1.84	4.10	1.01	4.84	9.61	5.83	3.84	5.37	1.21	47.79
1970	0.74	2.08	3.83	6.12	2.57	4.60	2.75	3.99	0.82	3.66	4.71	3.27	39.14
1969	1.57	1.88	1.92	1.68	3.30	7.31	8.33	2.66	4.38	1.13	1.97	7.23	43.36
1968	2.90	1.40	4.98	1.57	5.17	5.89	2.00	1.24	0.44	3.15	4.17	2.54	35.45
1967	1.67	1.82	4.53	2.17	3.49	4.12	7.11	7.08	2.96	2.00	1.99	5.88	44.82
1966	2.82	4.30	0.68	4.35	2.95	0.41	2.35	1.63	8.70	5.12	2.36	4.33	40.00
1965	2.35	2.18	3.19	2.33	1.23	2.85	3.22	4.05	3.02	2.02	1.05	1.85	29.34
1964	3.92	2.83	1.94	5.27	0.47	0.21	3.83	0.49	2.42	1.73	1.64	5.13	29.88
1963	2.31	2.19	3.94	1.13	1.06	2.88	3.13	3.35	6.44	0.09	6.67	1.76	34.95

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to it's full billing!

Yeah, it might be hot.  I think we will survive.  Its been 90 already this year and we pulled through.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I feel that it's time that we have a real serious discussion about next week's heat potential. Some places in and around the I-95 corridor could approach near record monthly high temperatures next Tuesday,  if this air mass lives up to its full billing!

We’ve had mid to upper 90s heat waves in May before, that’s not unprecedented. It also might be for just half this subforum since a lot of it looks southerly wind driven. Maybe we get another crazy Ambrose Jet day or two in this and the immediate south shore can’t get above 70. 

[Brian5671]

Given the dry soil conditions-the hot spots could maybe do upper 90's

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the dry soil conditions-the hot spots could maybe do upper 90's

I'm thinking my location will hit 97 or 98 on Tuesday. 

[[email protected]]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, it might be hot.  I think we will survive.  Its been 90 already this year and we pulled through.

The usual warm spots will be 95+ next Tuesday. That's unusual for mid-late May! Most max record highs for our area in the month of May are between 95-99 degrees.

[Santa Claus]

chilly and breezy behind the front innit

[donsutherland1]

The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s tomorrow. t will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. 

The warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps the lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will likely be the hottest day so far this year. Thursday will still be warm. Afterward, it will turn much cooler.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -15.45 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.456 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.