May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[Brewbeer]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

perfect should reserved for days when it is 98/76 and overnight temperatures hover 73-77

that's Florida weather, super GWDLT and if I did I'd move

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Found this guy just resting in the sun this morning…

We had a big chonky one in our driveway yesterday evening. Our dog started going bonkers and I yelled for my wife to come down to look.  Unfortunately (?) it went down the driveway into the woods. 
 

our dog hadn’t seen a bear before and she was shook. 

[Damage In Tolland]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That probably won’t hold. But have had plenty of late..so I’m fine with that if it does. 

Fine for now yes . But this is high sun angle time of year . Combined with 70’s/80’s  and low dews.. it’ll set out quickly 

[Damage In Tolland]

48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How much snow though?

Ineedsnow thinking 3-6” there 

[Typhoon Tip]

Gettin there … tryin. 

i’m telling you there’s a heat signal there between 6th and 10th of June for somebody. Models are definitely being forced to hide it 

[kdxken]

Nice ending to a beautiful day. Tree frogs are loving it. 

 

[kdxken]

What no Templeton? Stay safe INS...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nice ending to a beautiful day. Tree frogs are loving it. 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gettin there … tryin. 

i’m telling you there’s a heat signal there between 6th and 10th of June for somebody. Models are definitely being forced to hide it 

In general I’m not a fan of cool anomalies down south like we are seeing. Probably precludes any prolonged heat aside from a downslope dandy 90+ for a day or two. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Next 10 days Stein Stein Stein .. f’n up the scenery breaking my mind 

[powderfreak]

Still 72F at 9:30pm.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Still 72F at 9:30pm.

66 here. You like Florida there. 

[Torch Tiger]

beer 

[ineedsnow]

5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah thankfully we've got months and months to go 

Looks meh.. good luck though 

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

66 here. You like Florida there. 

Still been holding 70-72F during the 3am hour for a proper overnight torch, ha.

Warmest in New England in the north central mountain valleys of the Greens.

[CoastalWx]

Lots of mid high-level clouds today. Might cap Temps a few degrees.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, dendrite said:

Horrid run. Looks like April.

Take.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take.

Having married into a sub-Saharan genealogy that's about as close to living with heat as you really want to go, huh  

lol

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

In general I’m not a fan of cool anomalies down south like we are seeing. Probably precludes any prolonged heat aside from a downslope dandy 90+ for a day or two. 

I'm kinda looking for a "new" type of spring and summer heat that's been papered.    "heat excursions" at higher latitudes have become a coherent/reproducible aspect of CC.    

That period of time suspiciously looks like an opportunity for one of those ridge nodal resonant features.  

UK is experiencing one now.  And just like them, this one was not very well modeled either.  They may be more sussed out by telecon trends - the old institutional way to 'sense' or see storms or warmth or cold etc.. at extended leads, because ( my conjecture) is that they are emerging within regions where the non-linear wave function is supplying - hence the "invisible" - a constructive feedback. 

The UK heat of these recent days didn't really show up in the guidance until 120 hours out. That's awesome in 1988, but 2026 ... mm, lukewarm skill. .   It's anomaly distribution has been extreme, relative to date.   Uuuusually bigger anomalous in the physics materialize early in the linearity of the guidance, and have a way of sticking around from a longer lead...   Sandy showed up 13 days out. So did the 1993 so called super storm.  There are other examples. 

These heat nodes at higher latitudes are an increasing global phenomenon, and the linear day-to-day logistics of events in the models are not seeing them like other events.  There was a whopper in Siberia either last year or the previous ...  The Pacific NW, 2020...   there's a huge list.   They are proportional in SD to non-heat-related bigs, but with historic heat... not storms, thus less well seen ahead of time. And have been surging in occurrence in the last 20 years.   The fact that this heat over in the UK might have been been merely suggested, but then went kind of bonkers is a smoking gun attribution deal.  

The PNA dips to -1 for 3 or 4 days between June 6-ish and 10-like, while the EPO does a weird 3-day dive to -2 SD, all the while the NAO is positive.    Every so often the operational runs do like that 18z yesterday... then of course fade.  Seems like there's a region where the non-linear ( "tendencies" is the best way to describe that - I've called that correction vectoring in the past) forcing occurs in a domain from say IA-ME.    It's unfortunately not a linear weather forecast, because it can't be. 

I'm probably over-explaining it.  Simply put, we have to sense where these tendency fields are, and then watch for the models to avail.

[Typhoon Tip]

That cold pop over the weekend is weird.     That's like enclosing a -3 or deeper SD cold anomaly inside the size of a standard hurricane's πr²    And moving fast ... in and out in a single afternoon.  

The other thing that's weird is that seldom do we observe a surface low develop over N Ontario and dive along a 170 deg azimuth to the NH Seacoast like that.  It's ultimately not a big deal - yeah yeah it may cat paw at midriff terrain and non-stick snow on some summits for a coffee break, but that' hardly noteworthy.  It's an under the radar highly unusual event if it goes down the way the guidance sets at this time.  I still wonder if we aren't going to see a short term normalization of some of these aspects tho.  We'll see.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice 'cane on the GFS late next week

[Sugarloaf1989]

Snow at Stratton summit last May 22nd. This is the latest I've seen snow this far south. Wonder if it happens again this weekend. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It seems like as the curve of GW continues to rise, we get these freak cold excursions occurring later and later.

I wonder if we'll get a late April thru early June 82-91 freak early summer some year, followed by a single afternoon of snow chances on Stratton Mountain Resort - Summit 3875' | 2025-05-22 07:37:20 PM ....on actual June 21st

[Sugarloaf1989]

That's the highest elevation summit cam I'm aware of in Southern Vermont.  This storm is about a week later. I'm not sure what produced this snow  in 2025 upslope/storm nearby.