May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[jbenedet]

Nice four day weekend incoming. 

[kdxken]

Super. 

 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just one bad day. Two out of three ain’t bad.

Guidance is slowly coming into better agreement on the weather for
the upcoming holiday weekend. While we continue to forecast a cooler
than normal weekend with wet weather, the full three day weekend
shouldn`t be a washout. As it stands now, surface high pressure will
be fighting to keep low pressure from the OH valley and its
associated wet weather at bay as long as possible; this means the
earlier in the day on Saturday the better chance we stay dry, it
could even hold out for a fully dry Saturday, especially toward
northeast/north central MA. Eventually the shortwave and wet weather
move over SNE Saturday night/Sunday and this looks to be the most
likely "washout" day before the low moves east of MA by Monday with
drier air funneling in and making for a more pleasant day than
Sunday. Sunday will also be breezy as a 25-35kt LLJ moves overhead.
Temperatures bottom out on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s,
warming into the upper 60s and 70s by Monday.

I think you’re going to be disappointed overall with this weekend …more wet abd cool than anything else.  

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just one bad day. Two out of three ain’t bad.

Guidance is slowly coming into better agreement on the weather for
the upcoming holiday weekend. While we continue to forecast a cooler
than normal weekend with wet weather, the full three day weekend
shouldn`t be a washout. As it stands now, surface high pressure will
be fighting to keep low pressure from the OH valley and its
associated wet weather at bay as long as possible; this means the
earlier in the day on Saturday the better chance we stay dry, it
could even hold out for a fully dry Saturday, especially toward
northeast/north central MA. Eventually the shortwave and wet weather
move over SNE Saturday night/Sunday and this looks to be the most
likely "washout" day before the low moves east of MA by Monday with
drier air funneling in and making for a more pleasant day than
Sunday. Sunday will also be breezy as a 25-35kt LLJ moves overhead.
Temperatures bottom out on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s,
warming into the upper 60s and 70s by Monday.

You can do it put your  into it

 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think you’re going to be disappointed overall with this weekend …more wet abd cool than anything else.  

Saturday showers hold off till dark in this area. Monday the sun comes out for all . Sunday is a bad day 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Saturday showers hold off till dark in this area. Monday the sun comes out for all . Sunday is a bad day 

Monday could be ok aftn. To me weekend blows.

[dendrite]

May need the heat here on Sunday. I’ll take the rain. Goofus is basically a goose egg after this weekend.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Next week looks like great weather.
Mid to upper 70’s and dry.  

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

Sad

We have a dry-line-like phenomenon that is part of our spring/summer climo in New England that isn't really very well recognized. 

I've noticed too many times then can be counted since moving to this region of the country ...decades ago, that when it is hot and humid and a corrective cool front is approaching, we gap dry air out ahead.

The synoptic mechanism for this may not be too terribly different than what happens in W Tx... in principle.  We have higher elevations W, check.   Wind tendency to veer S of said higher elevations. Heating E also tends to trough the structure of flow subtly, which induces W d-slope component, W of the psuedo trough axis.   The result manufactures a dry line along the trough's axis... The real front is still back up stream mid NY/PA.  Not exactly the same but I see similarities there.  The main difference is that whence the d-line forms here, it races E.  That's why we get that deep blue sky with dry cough sear heat still 88 to 91 degrees N of the Pike like we did yesterday so often in that set up.  You see anvil heads on the S horizon. 

[Cyclone-68]

2025 and maybe 2026 are going to go down as spectacularly mediocre in regards to this part of the country. I wish I were wrong 

[jbenedet]

23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Next week looks like great weather.
Mid to upper 70’s and dry.  

Yea you’re good.

Im thinking of the 4 days Fri-Monday I lose one to rain. Will lose either Sunday or Monday to rain—trending to Sunday but it’s in and out quickly. Expecting that trend to continue. On the days with sun it will be near 70. 
 

Nothing to complain about up here.

 

It’s a shit setup though for the CT, RI, southeast MA.

[metagraphica]

Nice soaker this morning. Temp down to 56. 

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Next week looks like great weather.
Mid to upper 70’s and dry.  

Next week is 80’s all week 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Nice soaker this morning. Temp down to 56. 

We sun

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Off by 15 miles. Maybe your well will run dry?

At this rate, probably. Already getting crispy here.

This weekend looks like shit, but also, very little actual rain. Double whammy of suck 

[Typhoon Tip]

There are a few cases over the years whence something of sufficient magnitude penetrates the late spring/summer climate gauntlet enough to afflict a truly, perniciously shitty scenario.   Just think back to the infamous July 4th weekend, 2020.  40s ( and I don't mean 'Kevin 40s';  real 40s), NE wind, rain.   In fact, the May 1977 freak snow storm also fits into this sort of phenomenon - tho the snowing aspect might send some to feeling that's gotta be something extra double special and different but no ...

Barring those few/rarer exceptions, after about ... ~ May 10th, shit outlooks tend to flop on the side of better when the days actually happen.

I think this weekend may end up more in this ilk of inconvenience.  We'll see.  But I suspect Saturday is dry with some dim sun visible N of the Pike through early afternoon, then it gets more lorded over but still dry through evening. 

Sunday'll suck most likely... but given to the blocking that's setting up down stream, I could also see that correct a little drier as the day nears.  

Not sure what to make of Monday... Guidances are trying to create cold season meso lows near the Cape like it's December and trying to preserve a 31F dammed up icing scenario near FIT.  No shame in the guidance about what time of year it is.  Or, it's just an homage to the unusual blocking going on.  That's odd btw.   It's like there's a power house -NAO ridge pinning a Maritime trough in place... without having the ridge.  The block appears to be non linear... like you just can't see it them, but they are there; forces are just spontaneously folding up a trough over the Maritime.   It's stopping us from bouncing back very warm next week, too.  Not sure how much of that is real.  

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week is 80’s all week 

lol…maybe Wednesday…other then that 70’s, which is fine by me. 

[Brian5671]

Figures Tuesday will be nice for back to work.   What a pile of garbage this weekend.

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

2025 and maybe 2026 are going to go down as spectacularly mediocre in regards to this part of the country. I wish I were wrong 

Huh….?    You are wrong.  
 

2025-2026 winter was pretty dam good, two blizzards(one with single digit temps of 5-6 degrees), a 12/26 evening 9”er also with frigid temps. and very good cold all season..with good pack….that was pretty dam good imo.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There are a few cases over the years whence something of sufficient magnitude penetrates the late spring/summer climate gauntlet enough to afflict a truly, perniciously shitty scenario.   Just think back to the infamous July 4th weekend, 2020.  40s ( and I don't mean 'Kevin 40s';  real 40s), NE wind, rain.   In fact, the May 1977 freak snow storm also fits into this sort of phenomenon - tho the snowing aspect might send some to feeling that's gotta be something extra double special and different but no ...

Barring those few/rarer exceptions, after about ... ~ May 10th, shit outlooks tend to flop on the side of better when the days actually happen.

I think this weekend may end up more in this ilk of inconvenience.  We'll see.  But I suspect Saturday is dry with some dim sun visible N of the Pike through early afternoon, then it gets more lorded over but still dry through evening. 

Sunday'll suck most likely... but given to the blocking that's setting up down stream, I could also see that correct a little drier as the day nears.  

Not sure what to make of Monday... Guidances are trying to create cold season meso lows near the Cape like it's December and trying to preserve a 31F dammed up icing scenario near FIT.  No shame in the guidance about what time of year it is.  Or, it's just an homage to the unusual blocking going on.  That's odd btw.   It's like there's a power house -NAO ridge pinning a Maritime trough in place... without having the ridge.  The block appears to be non linear... like you just can't see it them, but they are there; forces are just spontaneously folding up a trough over the Maritime.   It's stopping us from bouncing back very warm next week, too.  Not sure how much of that is real.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll tell ya tho ...whatever happens this weekend .. next week aside, until this crap stops, it ain't summer!  not even close.  I don't care wtf it was like the last 3 days ... not a summer hemisphere. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Let's station that there to add resistance to the STJ next winter...that would be neat-

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let's station that there to add resistance to the STJ next winter...that would be neat-

uhmm ... can you help me parse out this sentence ^   ?

[Typhoon Tip]

I think Ray may actually be one of the aliens the current zeitgeist thinks walks amongst us?   It would explain how that list of verbiage actually constructs a workable communication because it probably is lucid comprehension in the mind of a Zargon -

As a software engineer with decades of experience no less, I cannot seem to decode this:   "Let's station that there to add resistance"

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think Ray may actually be one of the aliens the current zeitgeist thinks walks amongst us?   It would explain how that list of verbiage actually constructs a workable communication because it probably is lucid comprehension in the mind of a Zargon -

As a software engineer with decades of experience no less, I cannot seem to decode this:   "Let's station that there to add resistance"

Well,  in my limited knowledge of meteorology…I think he means let’s have that high set up there , to add a good fight back to the surging moisture that the STJ may provide…and perhaps give us an enhanced risk of wintry weather.   But I certainly could be wrong…

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol…maybe Wednesday…other then that 70’s, which is fine by me. 

Literally every day at your place will be 80 or above. It’s a warm dry airmass . This is like last week when we said 90’s this week and posters said no 90’s 

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh I get it... 

sorry Ray.  ha

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

So dry all the sudden.

72/37 for 29% RH.

Time to plant veggies, which usually means bye-bye rain.  Happens about 2/3 of years, with the other 3rd like 2005.  Or 2025 - 9 straight cloudy days 5/17-25 and 19-25 temps were 50.6/40.4 (that max is 16° BN) with no sun.  Pollinator punishment.

Yesterday's 16° AN (82/57) brought the month's temp right up to the average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well,  in my limited knowledge of meteorology…I think he means let’s have that high set up there , to add a good fight back to the surging moisture that the STJ may provide…and perhaps give us an enhanced risk of wintry weather.   But I certainly could be wrong…

Yea, I'm not sure why that was lost on Edgar Allen Poe over there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I get it... 

sorry Ray.  ha

It was odd prose, I guess I get it.