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May 2026 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Frosty morning with 32F min.

IMG_8454.jpeg.226321443adf5f733ae5db2da549a00a.jpeg

Still winter until ~ the 13.5th to the 15.3rd ...

Just beyond, obvious wholesale changes to this side/continental hemisphere would likely change the correction vectors from defaulting cooler to defaulting warmer - more of a behavior argument. 

The actual outlook itself moves temperature needle from averaging these 64/33s, to 76/51s ish (with option for more or less depending on alpine vs lower els) in the dailies.  

As an afterthought ... we have enjoyed some 8 consecutive months of suppressing warmth over our local Meteorological/geography.   Really since last autumn, this has been an amazing sabbatical from the responsibility to objective awareness ( LOL ).   A time in which we've been enabled to forget certain tendencies ... one of which, if the pattern is 'warm', the warmth always overperforms - at least to some degree.  Suppression of that specific behavior.  A hint to that being the case?  We've put up modest positive anomalies, despite cool pattern persistent complexions.  Another interesting observation (for me) that betrays that "lie",  our monthly means are less than the 2nd to 3rd warmest 8 months in Global climate history, spanning the last half year: we've been in a persistent offset region.  

It all goes away when the cooler hemispheric curvature biases finally decays...  

With the advent/onset of an aggressive ENSO guard change coinciding with seasonal change, this at least intuitively would be a good time to see that happen, and to at last escape this winter's instilled recency bias.  So, with this pattern that appears to be higher confidence ( post the 15th)... that will yield warmer than the current mere seasonal look - trust me.   How much so?  ... yesterday there was a bit of a heat wave signal. That appears to less so for that moment - unless you're a GEPs fan, which I'm not.  But life outside the resonant cool pattern of the recent year appears favored. 

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Summer begins Saturday ! The few uninstalled’s , better install . 90+ next week 

Yesterday that looked more plausible. 

Today's indicators more tamed to seasonal+ 

But you're putting up charts that are upper 80s... as a support for you 90+      Do you see the logical problem there?

 

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