May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well no, nothing "extravagant"   ... let's just start with ceasing the SPV reload up in Canada, along with a more seasonal relaxation of the polar jet which has remained active now later than normal. 

Relaxing those two would probably jolt our temperatures by 15+ F in the baseline mean, which ... might actually seem pricey when there's mid/late May sun upright hammering down.

No doubt it will feel more like summer once the pj retreats and weakens, that is not in question lol

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

12z GFS/GEFS are on the cold end of the guidance. I think it will end up trending warmer in the D9+ range towards the other models. 

Yeah I don't doubt that, but my point was that said outcome lands nowhere near consistent 80's and 90's. More like a shot at hitting a few random heaters. We'll see, hope to be wrong  ofc

[powderfreak]

So chilly but with summer daylight well past 8pm, it feels like it should be warmer.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I don't doubt that, but my point was that said outcome lands nowhere near consistent 80's and 90's. More like a shot at hitting a few random heaters. We'll see, hope to be wrong  ofc

Summer looks cold and rainy too. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

No doubt it will feel more like summer once the pj retreats and weakens, that is not in question lol

Yeah, I don’t mean to come across all instructional . I’m actually just sick of it frankly ha ha
I make it no secret that I am equally interested in summer weather phenomenon, just as I am about deep winter phenomenon “in the winter”

…not when it’s May and the pattern tries to act like it’s winter. fuck that.

Anyway, I track and study the synoptics of heat waves and so forth. It’s just something I’m interested in Man. I realize we’re in the minority here those of us that like summer phenomenon. Convection being part of all that, etc..
 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 ZGFS has a a monster ridge at the end of that run

[kdxken]

Yeah looks like a real beauty.

[kdxken]

10-day looks promising.  Can you imagine being stupid enough to install in April?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Apps ?

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Apps ?

 exactly! Those stupid models too. Who's going to believe charts?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

The warm pattern begins the 16th