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May 2026 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sure has. A warm AN Napril with 4 AC days in the books. Very little cool this spring thankfully other than a few days mixed in like today 

Must be nice not living less than 5 miles from a 45 degree ocean. Hopefully us mist weary coastal inhabitants can get some much needed relief later this week!

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10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sure has. A warm AN Napril with 4 AC days in the books. Very little cool this spring thankfully other than a few days mixed in like today 

No AC yet here and doesnt look like we will need it for awhile.. April had a few very warm days but we also had some snow.. May will come.in below normal it looks like.. we take! 

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1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I keep reading "best spring ever"?  Not feeling it; I don't care what #'s say!  Precious few great stretches...

Of all subjective takes on our predicament, this is probably the most fairly aligned with the objective truth - heh...the way I see it. 

Scott and I have had some back and forth about this, but the these months, really since last October - won't get too deeply into that but we've been stuck in some sort of resonate Rossby wave that's reenforcing the coldest possibility relative to ongoing noise, one that frankly still has not changed - have had small percentage day anomalies extremely warm enough to make months more normal in the pure numbers than the actual sensible weather.  

Basically...  imagine the example of 7 days -3, then three days of +8  ... the average is positive for the 10 days.  

We used to have a saying back in the weather lab days that statistics are the biggest "out-liars"  We're being gaslighted by the math for 9 straight fuckum months. 

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so, tomorrow we'll be above normal...  

Not thinking the low dunnite's too cold?  The 'core" of the coldest air is passing thru right now.  Wind looks to stay up ...defaulting to dry WAA.  Has a "steady or slowly rising" vibe there I guess.   Then tomorrow, good WSW mixing under surged 850 to 900 mb layer (-3 to +5) probably sends non-south coast tainted HFD-BED areas close to the adiabat.  Looks like mostly sunny.  74-ish.   

Same is true for Tuesday, only add 7 or 8 ... just spit ballin' here based on a cursory eval of charts.   But case in point to what I was just saying to John.   We're heading into a couple of days that will try and hide the abuse over the last week's piece of overall shitness 

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50 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like it’s been BKN/OVC on the south coast for a bit now

Not here. There has been a strip down the 91 corridor of sun. You can see it on the latest goes.

Looks like the Hudson river valley is clear as well. Perhaps some kind of valley clearing off NW winds?

 

Screenshot_20260503_112105_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20260503_112254_Gallery.jpg

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Was snowing this morning as I drove over the Molly Stark Byway Ridge where the bodies are buried. Froze in my tent last night! Pretty sure I heard graupel overnight. 

Just overall a terrible couple days. Feels like we're going backwards. 

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1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Not here. There has been a strip down the 91 corridor of sun. You can see it on the latest goes.

Looks like the Hudson river valley is clear as well. Perhaps some kind of valley clearing off NW winds?

 

Screenshot_20260503_112105_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20260503_112254_Gallery.jpg

Yup...probably a little downslope combined with a stabilizing effect from the cooler river waters.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no way any salesperson could spin or smear lipstick on a pig and make today better. Mid 40’s, cloudy and windy with heavy blowing pollen. There is not one single person that wants this weather in warm season . Thankfully this is it. 

I can think of at least 2 people.

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Just be thankful those model solutions from 10 or so days back failed.   They had us heading into some kind of a 2005 May redux ... 

Tomorrow at about 4pm will be like a completely different universe.    mid 60s to lower 70s, with partly to mostly sunny.  Altho probably a tad breezy for some tastes. Tuesday could be 80...   At no time in the 2005 May ordeal did we even see 50 spanning that multi-week captivity. 

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22 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Saw 1.5” on the top of the Kanc highway. 2800+’

Meanwhile in DEN coming up.  Scott again: " Why can't we get that here?  -- I WANT A MAY 9-10, 1977 EVERY YEAR!" :P

Interesting for DEN this snow season.  They currently have more snow March-April (13.9") than meteorological winter (13.2") and more on the way.  I bring this up b/c the clueless media could not stop talking about how there was a lack of snow this winter in the Rockies in Feb.  However, the window for snow goes well beyond meteorological winter here, but of course the media doesn't realize this, or conveniently ignores to push hype/a narrative (no more snow).  It's also the East Coast bias, as if the climate is the same everywhere and the East Coast (esp. NYC) is the standard!

So even though meteorological winter was lacking for snow in the Rockies, they have made up some ground March-April, and will continue to do so short-term.  The point is it no longer the record lowest for snow.  Yes, still below avg, but that not the same as all-time records.

These days any deviation from normal or anomaly is treated as unusual or extreme.  What planet are they living on?

And what do you think the headlines will be coming up in the next week?  Not the unusually persistent cool wx in the East, but the "heat dome" in the West, despite the CO snowstorm.

densnow.png

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Of all subjective takes on our predicament, this is probably the most fairly aligned with the objective truth - heh...the way I see it. 

Scott and I have had some back and forth about this, but the these months, really since last October - won't get too deeply into that but we've been stuck in some sort of resonate Rossby wave that's reenforcing the coldest possibility relative to ongoing noise, one that frankly still has not changed - have had small percentage day anomalies extremely warm enough to make months more normal in the pure numbers than the actual sensible weather.  

Basically...  imagine the example of 7 days -3, then three days of +8  ... the average is positive for the 10 days.  

We used to have a saying back in the weather lab days that statistics are the biggest "out-liars"  We're being gaslighted by the math for 9 straight fuckum months. 

Could not agree more Tip.  The numbers don't lie song is highly overrated!  The subject take by "non-weather geeks" like most of my friends and family, is that this spring has largely sucked.  I know spring in New England is more often than not crappy.  But I'm just not buying this has been a great spring spin.  

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