April 2026

[IrishRob17]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Where'd the big rainy pattern go-Upton has showers Wed night/Thurs AM and then nothing through the weekend

From Uptons discussion:

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The next chance for unsettled weather could come this weekend with a
passing offshore low. The GFS and ICON are more aggressive showing
phasing of the northern and southern stream with a surface low
deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would bring better
chances for seeing wet weather and windy conditions. Both the ECMWF
and GDPS are either offshore or weaker with this system, so there is
plenty of uncertainty. Stuck with NBM slight chance PoPs for now,
since even the more aggressive scenarios bring the low a little too
far offshore.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

From Uptons discussion:

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The next chance for unsettled weather could come this weekend with a
passing offshore low. The GFS and ICON are more aggressive showing
phasing of the northern and southern stream with a surface low
deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would bring better
chances for seeing wet weather and windy conditions. Both the ECMWF
and GDPS are either offshore or weaker with this system, so there is
plenty of uncertainty. Stuck with NBM slight chance PoPs for now,
since even the more aggressive scenarios bring the low a little too
far offshore.

must have been the 0z GFS-the 6z is way south and OTS

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

must have been the 0z GFS-the 6z is way south and OTS

Suppression depression in May. Hate to see it. I’ll be more than happy to salvage a weekend though. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Suppression depression in May. Hate to see it. I’ll be more than happy to salvage a weekend though. 

that's where strong blocking can help-keep it all south!

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if the coming El Niño can shift us out of this dry pattern which began in September 2024.