April 2026

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

2009 type summer, incoming?

2009 was another one of those years that led into a strong el nino. All the colder Junes in the last 30 years have happened in lead-ups to strong or super el ninos (1997, 2009, and 2023). 1997 and 2009 both finished with well below average summer temps, while 2023 finished near normal.

2015, on the other hand, had a near record warm May, and a warmer than normal summer. Same with 1991. Oddly enough, both years were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el ninos. The summers before, 1990 and 2014, were much cooler.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Cleared 1.5” here. Ground is nice and saturated even through thick evergreen trees.


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[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

2009 type summer, incoming?

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

[[email protected]]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2009 was another one of those years that led into a strong el nino. All the colder Junes in the last 30 years have happened in lead-ups to strong or super el ninos (1997, 2009, and 2023). 1997 and 2009 both finished with well below average summer temps, while 2023 finished near normal.

2015, on the other hand, had a near record warm May, and a warmer than normal summer. Same with 1991. Oddly enough, both years were preceded by borderline warm neutral/weak el ninos. The summers before, 1990 and 2014, were much cooler.

We might be heading towards one of our coolest May's since 1967.

[Stormlover74]

Looks like Wednesday night into Thursday another decent rain event 

[MANDA]

1.52" here for the event.  A nice slow and steady soaking for this sub forum.

Click map to enlarge.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

4 out of the Top 8 happened in developing strong el nino years.

[steve392]

Just under 1.5" 9f much needed rains.  New rain guage makes it easy to read. 

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2009 would probably be too big of an ask in this much warmer climate. It was the 2nd coolest June and July on record at spots like Islip.

2023 was our last summer with a developing El Niño that became very strong. Was cooler overall  than the other 2020s summers so far but still not really cool by historical standards.

 

Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) 10 Coolest June 1 to July 31 Periods
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1965-07-31	67.9	0
2	2009-07-31	68.2	0
3	1978-07-31	68.5	0
4	1979-07-31	68.7	0
-	1968-07-31	68.7	0
5	1992-07-31	68.9	0
6	1982-07-31	69.0	0
7	1964-07-31	69.2	0
8	1972-07-31	69.3	0
9	1985-07-31	69.4	0
10	2000-07-31	69.6	0
-	1996-07-31	69.6	0

 

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

[bluewave]

Just now, WX-PA said:

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

It does look like May will at least start out cooler than average with all the blocking and the upper low parked over the Northeast. Will be interesting to see if we can get some improvement heading out toward Memorial Day. Still beyond the reach of the models. 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Going into strong Nino'usually means cool Summer, warm Winter..But with this strange climate we're in who knows?

2023 - Yes 

2015 - Warm summer, warm winter

2009 - Cool summer, cool winter

1997 - Yes

1991 - Warm summer, warm winter

1986 - Cool summer, cool winter (1987 - Warm summer, cool winter)

1982 - Yes

1972 - Yes

1965 - Cool summer, cool winter

1957 - Cool summer, cool winter

[psv88]

56 and some sun. At least its possible to be outside 

[psv88]

Gotta love April. 50s in Raleigh and 70 in Montreal 

[donsutherland1]

The recent rain delivered 0.50"-1.50" of rain to the region, along with some locally higher figures. Rainfall amounts included:

Bridgeport: 0.89"
Islip: 1.31"
New Haven: 0.74"
New York City-Central Park: 1.39"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.49"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.45"
Newark: 1.64"
Philadelphia: 0.51"
White Plains: 1.07"

Tomorrow through Wednesday will be somewhat warmer with highs reaching the lower and middle 60s.

However, another shot of rain followed by cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was -28.05 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.960 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[TriPol]

Is there a potential frost on tap next weekend? Can't think of a worse time for farmers who have been hit hard this spring.