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2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

A west based mod niño would be good as well 

It would be great if we can finally get some help from the PDO and get the warm bath water out of the western Pacific. That should tamp down the ridiculous Pacific jet but a super Nino will just flood the continent with mild air and overwhelm any other positive trend. We’d have to hope for one huge STJ driven event like Jan 2016 or Feb 1983. 

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4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah a weak El Nino would give us a decent chance, but unfortunately the signs point to this one being strong. I'd much rather have a La Nina like the last couple winters than a strong El Nino. 

A strong nino is likely a 3 week winter like 15-16-hopefully with a big blizzard in there

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10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter

2009-10 was a west-based el nino, correct? 

2010-11 is probably an exception to the strong la nina/SE ridge correlation because we got a really good winter here as well. Was there any ridge that winter?

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12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It would be great if we can finally get some help from the PDO and get the warm bath water out of the western Pacific. That should tamp down the ridiculous Pacific jet but a super Nino will just flood the continent with mild air and overwhelm any other positive trend. We’d have to hope for one huge STJ driven event like Jan 2016 or Feb 1983. 

Def would need a -WPO to help bring down arctic air in concert with the strong STJ but who knows at this point 

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46 / 34  coming up from a bottom of 30 here.  Cooler 2 days mid -  later week warm up - moderation back towards and above normal (Thu-Fri).  Weekend looks wet potentially >0.50. Beyond there close of the month and start of May looks to ride  near to below normal before moderation towards the 5th or so.

 


GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1941)
NYC: 90 (1927)
LGA: 85 (2005)
JFK: 80 (2005)


Lows:

EWR: 34 (1953)
NYC: 24 (1897)
LGA: 35 (1953)
JFK: 36 (2018)

 

Historical:

 

1901 - A spring storm produced unusally heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron OH established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1912: A tornado moved north-northeast from 5 miles southeast of Rush Center, KS across the east half of Bison, KS. Farms were wiped out near Rush Center. The loss at Bison was $70,000 as half of the town, about 50 homes, were damaged or destroyed. There were 15 injuries in town. A dozen farms were nearly wiped out. Debris from the farmhouses was carried for 8 miles. A senior man who made light of the storm was killed with his granddaughter on a farm 2 miles southwest of Bison.

1920 - Tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama killed 219 persons. (David Ludlum)

1920: Tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama killed 219 persons. Six tornadoes of F4 intensity were reported. Aberdeen, Mississippi was hard hit by an F4 tornado that killed 22 people. This same tornado killed 20 in Marion County, Alabama. Nine people in one family died in Winston County, Alabama. 

1941: The maximum temperature for the date is 94°F. in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1952 - The tankers Esso Suez and Esso Greensboro crashed in a thick fog off the coast of Morgan City LA. Only five of the Greensboro's crew survived after the ship bursts into flame. (David Ludlum)

1967: A tornado struck 5 miles north of Cyril, OK. A pickup truck driving along State Highway 8, stalled because of the wind, and then was lifted by the tornado, turned around to face the opposite direction, and set down again, without damage. The driver, who described the funnel as being "full of mud", was uninjured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: Severe thunderstorms struck the western parts of north Texas. Near Bonita in Montague County, flat hailstones, four to five inches in diameter, and one inch thick, did extensive damage to autos, roofs, and windows. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1973: At Ada, Oklahoma a tornado spun a 33 RPM photograph record smack into a crack in a telephone pole. (Ref. Click here to see the record in the telephone pole)

1980: Billings, MT reached 90°; tying a record high for April and is the earliest 90 degree reading on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1984: A temperature of 106 degrees at Del Rio, Texas set a new record high for April.

1987 - Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 at Little Rock AR equalled their April record. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A storm in the western U.S. brought heavy rain to parts of California. Mount Wilson was soaked with 4.15 inches of rain in 24 hours. The heavy rain caused some flooding and mudslides in the Los Angeles area, and a chain reaction collision of vehicles along the Pomona Freeway which resulted in 26 injuries. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 at Provo UT, 90 at Pueblo CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City UT, equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A fast moving Pacific storm produced heavy snow in the central mountains and the Upper Arkansas Valley of Colorado, with a foot of snow reported at Leadville. Thunderstorms in the south central U.S. produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Tulsa OK, and heavy rain which caused flooding of Cat Claw Creek in the Abilene TX area. Lightning struck the building housing a fish farm in Scott AR killing 10,000 pounds of fish. Many of the fish died from the heat of the fire. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: 5.89 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Norfolk, VA, setting a record for April. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1992: A blizzard beginning on the 18th lasted through this date across the Black Hills of South Dakota. Heavy wet snow and strong winds created blizzard conditions in the northern Black Hills that led to a major power outage. About 2,000 households were without power for over 4 hours in some areas around Lead/Deadwood. Snow amounts of 2 feet were common with 30 inches falling at Lead causing major traffic problems. Northwest winds gusted to over 65 mph at Rapid City, SD and to around 50 mph in the Hills. 9.2 inches of snow at Omaha, NE (8.7 inches at the airport) set several records, including the heaviest April snow. The same storm dumped 2.7 inches of snow at Kansas City, MO for their heaviest snowfall ever so late in the season. Ahead of the storm, an F1 tornado destroyed a 40x50 foot shed and damaged a nearby garage and home two miles south of Hillsboro, WI.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: A late season snowstorm struck parts of Nebraska and Iowa. Low pressure developed over the south central United States and tracked into southwest Missouri and finally between Des Moines and Ottumwa. Heavy snow began to fall around noon with the heaviest amounts over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. 14 inches of snow fell at Hamburg and 12 inches in Sidney. 8 to 15 inches were common over eastern Nebraska and 4 to 8 inches in southwest Iowa. The snow was very wet and heavy causing tree and power line damage. In addition, some livestock losses were reported mostly with young calves.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000 Severe thunderstorms rolled from west to east across central Illinois throughout the morning. These storms produced tornado touchdowns near Illiopolis and Forsyth, and another tornado tracked from near Oreana to Argenta. This latter tornado lifted the roof off a home 2 miles northeast of Oreana, and part of a roof in Argenta was lifted off. Earlier in the morning, the storms produced winds up to 85 mph in Cass, Tazewell and Menard Counties, causing damage to buildings, trees and power lines. In Tazewell County, a radio tower in Groveland was blown over, causing $500,000 dollars damage, and near Washington, an airport hangar was destroyed, damaging 3 planes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: A strong F3 tornado moved across the town of Utica, near LaSalle-Peru in north-central Illinois. This tornado destroyed several homes, a machinery building, and a tavern. The roof of the tavern collapsed, killing eight people inside; many of these people had come into town from nearby mobile homes, seeking sturdier shelter. The tornado dissipated on a steep bluff on the northeast side of the city. Another tornado developed shortly afterward, crossing I-80 near Ottawa. Several other tornadoes developed across north central and northeast Illinois, affecting areas around Joliet and Kankakee.

2006 - Up to five feet of snow falls in the Dakotas. I-94 and other highways were closed.

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10 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Yay east winds and rain this upcoming weekend 

If it actually does bring rain I’d be thrilled. If it’s just raw drizzle that does diddly squat to moisten the soil and just makes it miserable, it’s par for the course. 

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