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A cooling trend is now ongoing. That trend will culminate in a sharp cold shot early next week.

Tomorrow will be even cooler than today with highs in the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s.  A sharp cold shot is likely early Monday and Tuesday. Highs will reach the middle 50s on both days. Tuesday morning will feature low temperatures fall in the upper 30s. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze.

Some showers or thundershowers are possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Most areas will see 0.33" or less rainfall. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +10.74 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.053 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (2.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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21 hours ago, MANDA said:

Usually favors the Southeast for heavier precipitation but we'll see how it evolves.  Either way no more 80's and 90's for a while.

Yeah, would be nice for some improvement of the lower soil moisture to get at least one major storm system while the blocking and STJ is in place. 
 

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53 / 41 cloudy / misty cool.  Probably at the best we can do today temps-wise low 50s or so.  Front slow to move through and may not clear out till later on monday.  This week will overall ride near to below normal as a whole 4/20 - 4/27.  We'll see how much warmth we can push northeast on Wed-Thu.  The period next weekend into the following week could see cut off trough with days of clouds and some misery 4/25 - 4/28.  Beyon there moderation is on the horizon into early may.

 

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Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 92 (1976)
NYC: 92 (1976)
LGA: 85 (2002)
JFK: 84 (1985)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (2020)
NYC: 21 (1875)
LGA: 35 (1983)
JFK: 34 (2001)

 

Historical:

1775 - The first engagement of the Revolutionary War took place under clear crisp weather at Lexington-Concord. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1927: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred across the central part of Illinois, killing 21 people. The first tornado touched down near Hardin, traveling northeast through Carrollton, then skimmed the south side of Springfield. At Carrollton, a teacher was killed as she held the door of the school shut, saving the lives of her students. The second tornado, peaking at estimated F4 intensity, touched down on the southeast side of Springfield, then moved to affect the towns of Riverton, Buffalo Hart, Chestnut, and Cornland. In Buffalo Hart, only three houses were left standing, while the northern half of Cornland was leveled. The tornado track was 65 miles, ending in Ford County.

1941 - The temperature at Sodus, NY, soared to 95 degrees. The next day Albany, NY, reported a record for April of 93 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1973 - Glenrock, WY, received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1976 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of an early season heat wave, and the Boston Marathon took place in 90 degree heat. At Providence RI the mercury hit 98 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

1986: A major storm system produced ten tornadoes in Texas. One of these tornadoes virtually annihilated the town of Sweetwater. The tornado struck at the unlikely time of 7:17 am. One person was killed, and 100 were injured. 

1987 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s for Easter Sunday. Fort Smith AR reported a record high of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms over the southeastern U.S. early in the day spawned a strong (F-3) tornado which destroyed seventeen homes and severely damaged thirty houses near Madison FL killing four persons and injuring eighteen others. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A dozen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 98 degrees at Hanksville UT equalled their record for April. Tucson AZ reported their earliest 100 degree reading of record. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Five cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and upper teens. Elkins WV reported a record low of 20 degrees. Thunderstorms over the Southern Plains produced golf ball size hail at San Angelo TX, and up to four inches of rain in southwestern Oklahoma. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A case of cold air damming as Pittsburgh, PA hit 82° while across the state at Philadelphia, the temperature only reached 50° due to a chilly east wind off the Atlantic. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996 - One of the most memorable tornado outbreaks in Illinois history occurred on April 19, 1996. During the day, 33 tornadoes were reported as supercells erupted and moved across the state during the afternoon and evening hours. Wind estimates in excess of 170 mph were associated with some of the stronger tornadoes, one of which ripped through nearby Ogden, IL. (University of Illinois WW2010)

2002: A thunderstorm with hail and high winds moved through the District of Columbia during the afternoon of the 19th. Winds gusted as high as 70 MPH and at least 82 trees downed across the city. Most of the damage was reported in the northern sections of town. Trees fell onto power lines, 10 cars, 4 homes, and several roads. A large tree, which was believed to have been struck by lightning because the roots were charred, fell onto a vehicle that was traveling through the intersection of 12th and Shepard streets NE. Nearly 6000 customers lost power as a direct result of the storm.  (Ref. Scott Summer)

2006: An intense spring snowstorm swept across the Dakotas, dumping up to 5 feet of snow. The heaviest snow fell in the Black Hills, with 59.4 inches at Lead, SD. Bowman, ND reported 18 inches. The storm closed highways including I-94 in North Dakota, cutting power to thousands and was responsible for at least four deaths. Further west, 1 to 3 feet of snow and 50 to 60 mph winds caused drifts up to 10 feet, widespread power outages, and livestock losses.

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