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A cooling trend is now ongoing. That trend will culminate in a sharp cold shot early next week.

Tomorrow will be even cooler than today with highs in the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s.  A sharp cold shot is likely early Monday and Tuesday. Highs will reach the middle 50s on both days. Tuesday morning will feature low temperatures fall in the upper 30s. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze.

Some showers or thundershowers are possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Most areas will see 0.33" or less rainfall. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +10.74 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.053 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (2.6° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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