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Maybe a lot sooner if the NAM is right-brings a backdoor front and disgusting 40s in on Wed. That turd in the punchbowl is never far away in April.

No way. That was our best shot at 80.
Currently the Sw wind vector isn’t so bad the further west you get. Really need it straight south north of sunrise west of rvc to for the marine layer


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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe a lot sooner if the NAM is right-brings a backdoor front and disgusting 40s in on Wed. That turd in the punchbowl is never far away in April.

verbatim it gets kicked back out and Thursday is warm but yeah that would suck

RGEM has it too but much weaker more like RI/SEMA only

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An early summer preview is getting underway...

Tomorrow through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday.

Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. 

Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -15.22 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (3.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

verbatim it gets kicked back out and Thursday is warm but yeah that would suck

RGEM has it too but much weaker more like RI/SEMA only

New NAM is a little slower with it so we salvage a nice day on Wed but with how cold the waters are it won't take much for one to surge SW.

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13 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


No way. That was our best shot at 80.
Currently the Sw wind vector isn’t so bad the further west you get. Really need it straight south north of sunrise west of rvc to for the marine layer


.

Imo, The NAM isnt that good for temp guidance on the coast in the spring. Occasionally it can sniff out BDCF or sea breeze better than other models but most of the time it over-do's the marine influence.

The BDCF it showed yesterday on its 18z run backed off a lot. The difference between that run and current 6z run in insane. No other model switched up like that. Globals and other hi-res models have been consistent where the NAM hasn't. Models still have a SE wind for Wednesday evening which will cool the island off fast, but no where as cold as the NAM was advertising. Even the current 6z 12km NAM only has a high of 71 for Islip today which will likely be too low.

At least the 3km 6z NAM is much closer to reality and other models

3pm Wed 3km 6z NAM:

nam-nest-neng-t2m_f-6279600.thumb.png.acc965f92c50cb23e225538051217f94.png

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21 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Summer 2023 was a delayed summer. It was one of those rare ones where September was warmer than June. While JJA fell a tenth or two below the 1981-2010 average, the JAS temperature finished a tenth or two above the 1981-2010 JJA average. Plus, the early September heatwave helped drive up the 90-degree numbers for 2023.

Also, I'm not sure where the narrative of record rainfall and flooding events going into the summer of 2023 came from, but aside from the April 28-30 rainstorm, that spring was pretty much dry here, with May 2023 being a record dry May. It really didn't get wet until about mid-June.

There was very heavy rain and flooding early that July before the warmer conditions arrived as the El Niño first began to take hold.

The late spring that year was defined by the record warmth in Canada and drought leading to all the wildfires and the record poor air quality conditions in NYC in early summer.

That being said, each year is different which variation from previous El Niños. While it was a cooler summer relative to the 2020s, it was still warmer than most summers in the earlier decades.

The progress of “cooler” summers since the 1990s

IMG_6115.png.b48eb200495432b7284e64763e61fa69.png

IMG_6116.png.649e1c2e9134e6ef54750c4735558b08.png

IMG_6117.png.6bd261bb84792038126fb3eb430fe78e.png

IMG_6118.png.c3428acc5f9580a539e0c3a26cb67076.png

 

 

 

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75 / 57 the 6.6 day strong warmup entering its peak mid 80s to low 90s in the area, with many records possible today- Friday.  Cold front comes through at some point Sunday and could see a 30-40 degree swing from Sunday max to Monday lows (4/19) - (4/20).  Storms could trend stronger for Sunday as well. Cooler next week with temps falling near to below noram as trough into the northeast - onshore flow backing in, we'll see if we turn wetter. Beyond there moderation as we approach early May.

 

4/13 - 4/19 : Warm to very warm +10 - +20 period, record warmth, first 90s, mainly dry
4/20 - 4/30 :  Below normal overall  - wetter
5/1 - beyond : Near normal - moderation

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2023)
NYC: 91 (2023)
LGA: 89 (2023)
JFK: 82 (2023)

Lows:

EWR: 26 (1950)
NYC: 26 (1950)
LGA: 27 (1950)
JFK: 27 (1950)

Historical:



1851: "The Lighthouse Storm" of 1851 struck New England on this date. Heavy gales and high seas pounded the coasts of New Hampshire and eastern Massachusetts. The storm arrived at the time of a full moon and high tide producing unusually high storm tides. The storm was so named because it destroyed the lighthouse at Cohasset, MA. Two assistant lighthouse keepers were killed there when the structure was swept away by the storm tide. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1854: A major coastal storm dumped rain, sleet and snow across the East. 24 inches of snow fell in parts of northwestern New Jersey. Many ships were lost, including a passenger ship that broke up, killing 340 people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1873 - A famous Easter blizzard raged across Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. Gale force winds blew the wet snow into massive drifts, however there were few deaths due to the sparse population and due to the gradual increase of the storm. (David Ludlum)

1886 - A devastating tornado, 800 yards in width at times, cut a twenty mile path through Saint Cloud MN killing 74 persons. The bottom of the Mississippi River was said to have been seen during the tornado's crossing. Eleven persons were killed at a wedding party near the town of Rice. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1912: On her maiden voyage, the RMS Titanic rammed into an iceberg just before midnight. The "unsinkable ship" sank two hours and forty minutes later into the icy water of the Atlantic Ocean near Newfoundland, Canada. Tragically, 1,517 passengers including the crew were lost. A nearby ship, the Carpathia, rushed to the Titanic and was able to save 706 people. 

1921: THE GREATEST 24-HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN U.S. HISTORY occurred at Silver Lake, CO as 75.8 inches fell on April 14th through the 15th. During the 32 hour period of more or less continuous snowfall from 1430 MST, April 14 to 2300 MST on April 15,1921 a record 95 inches was reported. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. Monthly Weather Review page 38)

1922: The Mississippi River reached a record height of 21.3 feet at New Orleans, Louisiana, and the river was still rising, with the crest still a week away. Understandably, the City of New Orleans was nervous as reports of levees failing upriver reached the city. A crevasse below New Orleans would relieve the pressure on the town's strained levees on the 27th, spared the city from disaster.


1923: The 0.5 inches of snow fell in Washington DC is among the latest of DC snows. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1933: 35 inches of snow fell in Franklin, NH in 24-hours to set the state record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1935: Black Sunday refers to a particularly severe dust storm that occurred on April 14, 1935, as part of the Dust Bowl. During the afternoon, the residents of the Plains States were forced to take cover as a dust storm, or "black blizzard," blew through the region. The storm hit the Oklahoma Panhandle and Northwestern Oklahoma first and moved south for the remainder of the day. It hit Beaver around 4:00 p.m., Boise City around 5:15 p.m., and Amarillo, Texas, at 7:20 p.m. The conditions were the most severe in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, but the storm's effects were felt in other surrounding areas.

1953: Opening Day at Fenway Park in Boston, MA was postponed by 2 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1960: The maximum temperature for the date is 91°F. in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1987 - A storm system moving slowly northeastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley produced severe thunderstorms which spawned three tornadoes around Ottumwa IA, and produced up to four inches of rain in southeastern Nebraska, flooding rivers and streams. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A weather disturbance off the southern coast of California brought parts of southern California their first rain in six weeks. Rain-slickened roads resulted in numerous accidents in southern California, including a ten car pile-up at Riverside. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Late afternoon thunderstorms in northern Florida soaked the town of Golden Gate with 4.37 inches of rain in about two hours, resulting in local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in southeastern Texas during the mid morning hours. Thunderstorms produced dime size hail at Galveston, and wind gusts to 59 mph at Port Arthur. Afternoon thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana spawned tornadoes south of Bogalusa and at Rio. (Storm Data)

1996: An intense tornado touched down in the Ozark Mountains of Stone County, AR near Allison. It devastated a popular fishing campground, killing five vacationers. All deaths were in recreational vehicles along the banks of the White River. Just six minutes later, another tornado touched down in neighboring Izard County, destroying 11 homes and killing two people in two separate homes near Sylamore. Seven people were killed and 30 injured in the Arkansas tornadoes.  Also on this date in western Kansas 10 inches of snow was reported in the Scott Lake State Park area bringing down some trees. Six to eight inches was reported in Healy, Manning and Scott City. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1999: On this date through the 15th, a spring storm dumped heavy snow over portions of the Colorado Rockies. Nearly two feet of snow fell in the foothills with 18 inches reported over the western and southern suburbs of Denver. The heavy snow alleviated drought conditions and associated high fire danger that prevailed during much of the winter season. Snowfall totals included: 22 inches at Coal Creek Canyon, 20 inches at Wondervu, 19 inches at Genesee, 17 inches near Evergreen, Nederland, Idaho Springs, and Tiny Town, 14 inches at Georgetown, 13 inches at Morrison, 10 inches at Sedalia, 9 inches in south Boulder, 8 inches at Highlands Ranch & Wheat Ridge and 7 inches at Littleton & Parker. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2019: Tornado warning and severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for Henrico CO. VA on April 14 and the cold front and an associated thunderstorm passed at between 1:45 AM and 2:15 AM. Springfield Park had a wind gust of 35 mph at 1:55 AM and funnel clouds were reported in the area but no tornadoes reported. Parts of the area had straight line wind damage.The Story of Severe Weather in Henrico CO. VA

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2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Imo, The NAM isnt that good for temp guidance on the coast in the spring. Occasionally it can sniff out BDCF or sea breeze better than other models but most of the time it over-do's the marine influence.

The BDCF it showed yesterday on its 18z run backed off a lot. The difference between that run and current 6z run in insane. No other model switched up like that. Globals and other hi-res models have been consistent where the NAM hasn't. Models still have a SE wind for Wednesday evening which will cool the island off fast, but no where as cold as the NAM was advertising. Even the current 6z 12km NAM only has a high of 71 for Islip today which will likely be too low.

At least the 3km 6z NAM is much closer to reality and other models

3pm Wed 3km 6z NAM:

nam-nest-neng-t2m_f-6279600.thumb.png.acc965f92c50cb23e225538051217f94.png

Islip is already at or above 70

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