Wannabehippie Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: models very dry into next week-all the moisture well north and west of us Not good when so many areas are in drought, or near drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 A warming trend is commencing. Temperatures will return to the 60s tomorrow. The warmth will extend into the weekend. It could turn even warmer next week with temperatures peaking near or even above 80° during Tuesday through Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -32.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.247 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.5° (2.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Bounce back to warmer again following the colder temperatures this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: Bounce back to warmer again following the colder temperatures this week. What is likely going to be a much warmer than normal April is underway. Can see monthly departures of +3.5 to +4.0 by the time April finishes. Sure hope we can get some rain mid to late month because stream and river flow at least over NW NJ from what I have seen is very low. Not much rainfall in sight next 7-10 days. With the warming and dry conditions coming up fire danger is going to elevate quickly. The short term dryness has eased over the last 6 weeks but long term dryness remains. Early call from me is a warmer summer (JJA) with departures of 1.5 to 2.5 degrees for the season and normal to below normal rainfall overall. Of course local T-Storm activity can push some places to above normal. Overall though I am fully expecting a warmer and drier than normal summer season for most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat . -NAO does not mean cold weather in warmer months. You know this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: -NAO does not mean cold weather in warmer months. You know this... Not to mention none of that has verified this spring...strongly positive since late Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not to mention none of that has verified this spring...strongly positive since late Feb Bottom of the 9th, two outs, Mets down 10-1 to the Dodgers, Alvarez down 0-2 in the count, Tony with his rally cap on "Just need 9 more runs...it can happen" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Beautiful afternoon. Looking forward to a firepit and a beer later on. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 53 minutes ago, FPizz said: Beautiful afternoon. Looking forward to a firepit and a beer later on. Enjoy before the mosquitoes are out in droves. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 12 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Enjoy before the mosquitoes are out in droves. Im hoping for a bone dry spring and summer to keep all that in check 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Onshore wind limiting temps on the south shore. JFK 51 and 62 CPK. Strong onshore winds next week with multiple Ambrose jet days possible. South facing coast will be significantly cooler . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Bottom of the 9th, two outs, Mets down 10-1 to the Dodgers, Alvarez down 0-2 in the count, Tony with his rally cap on "Just need 9 more runs...it can happen" He needs to move to Alaska or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Onshore wind limiting temps on the south shore. JFK 51 and 62 CPK. Strong onshore winds next week with multiple Ambrose jet days possible. South facing coast will be significantly cooler . Upper 40s in Long Beach. Water temp still around 43. Ouch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Upper 40s in Long Beach. Water temp still around 43. Ouch. Yeah I have lots of memories of this time of year in Lb. At least it’s sunny. The worst days are zero vis fog and raw wind. Those days feel especially cold, meanwhile it’s 80 and sunny in NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: He needs to move to Alaska or something. Caribou or International Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 1 hour ago, FPizz said: Beautiful afternoon. Looking forward to a firepit and a beer later on. Was thinking the same thing. Did a bunch of yardwork today and backyard is all set up for summer minus the pool being open. I'll be cracking a Tree House in a little while. Cheers buddy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Caribou or International Falls Caribou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 CaribouCaribou doesn’t get a crazy amount of snow. You don’t even need to leave NY. Tug hill Platue averages over 250” a year and has seen over 400”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Caribou doesn’t get a crazy amount of snow. You don’t even need to leave NY. Tug hill Platue averages over 250” a year and has seen over 400” . Too quiet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 we underachieved temp wise for the city last few days even with bright sunshine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Made it to 74 today - gorgeoues day, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 A warming trend is underway. Temperatures will top out in the 60s tomorrow and then upper 50s on Sunday. It will then turn much warmer next week. Temperatures will likely peak near or above 80° during Tuesday through Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -33.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.117 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Caribou doesn’t get a crazy amount of snow. You don’t even need to leave NY. Tug hill Platue averages over 250” a year and has seen over 400” . This is beauty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Lots of talk of media talk of a Super Nino next year. That would mean a very warm winter around here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 59 today. Much warmer to the north, south and west. Hopefully we can crack 70 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Lots of talk of media talk of a Super Nino next year. That would mean a very warm winter around here this year super el nino.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I have lots of memories of this time of year in Lb. At least it’s sunny. The worst days are zero vis fog and raw wind. Those days feel especially cold, meanwhile it’s 80 and sunny in NJ. . I hated the Ambrose Jet afternoons where you'd see a pleasant Central Park in the 70s but 40s/low 50s and 40+ mph winds at home. At least here we usually get a couple more hours to warm up before the strong winds make it this far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 This is beauty They still have a 36” snow pack. Probably a glacier you can walk on at this point. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region. Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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