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Maybe a lot sooner if the NAM is right-brings a backdoor front and disgusting 40s in on Wed. That turd in the punchbowl is never far away in April.

No way. That was our best shot at 80.
Currently the Sw wind vector isn’t so bad the further west you get. Really need it straight south north of sunrise west of rvc to for the marine layer


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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe a lot sooner if the NAM is right-brings a backdoor front and disgusting 40s in on Wed. That turd in the punchbowl is never far away in April.

verbatim it gets kicked back out and Thursday is warm but yeah that would suck

RGEM has it too but much weaker more like RI/SEMA only

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An early summer preview is getting underway...

Tomorrow through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday.

Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. 

Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -15.22 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (3.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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