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Cooler conditions have returned to the region. Temperatures will likely top out in the 50s through Thursday. Highs tomorrow will struggle to reach the lower 50s. 

Tomorrow morning could see the low temperature approach 32° in New York City. Should the mercury reach 32°, New York City would see its second consecutive April with a freeze (last year's last freeze was April 9). The last time that happened was 2015 and 2016.

Temperatures will return to the 60s on Friday. The warmth will extend into the weekend. It could turn even warmer next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.23 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.944 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.5° (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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