Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[WxWatcher007]

Sorry, guys. 


 

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sorry, guys. 


 

 

 

What’s to be sorry about? I’m hoping my winter heating bills are no worse than my summer cooling bills.

I'm hoping for a torched winter where my winter heating electric bills match my summer cooling ones

[40/70 Benchmark]

About 10" below average...still would be tied for the 2nd most snow that I have had since 2017-2018. Take. That close to climo in a super El Nino likely includes a big fish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know it's instinctive to look at the colors on those maps and feel compelled to projectile-vomit, but it's really not far off of a bast-case scenario given the hand we are dealt.

I have no issue with this composite...we have a bit of breathing room in terms of latitude with respect to the pig-ridge to the north, and the GOA low isn't pressed up against the coast out west. We can't see the composite seasons, but that looks a great deal like 1957-1958 to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would say it's a tic worse than 1957, though due to the orientation of the GOA low, as it's more elongated towards the Bering sea, as opposed to poleward in the direction of AK in 1957. Would need to see monthlies to confirm, but given the expected retrogression of that low during the evolution of the season, that is likely a limiting factor with respect to periods of cross polar flow during the second half....so news flash, second half probably won't be as good as 1958...no $hit-

[MarcmmKU]

On 9/16/2026 at 10:02 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Exactly what I have been saying to my local weather group chat for Southeast MI. Theres not going to be snow on the ground almost all winter like last year, but the seasonal total is still wide up in the air. I do feel it will be subpar in true strong Nino fashion, but not crazy bad. We rely more on frequent snowfall than a big storm. We are not going to get a 2-3' noreaster (our big storms are 6-12") so its going to be how many snowy periods will there be? Warm, wet Dec followed by cold, dry Jan/Feb is usually a worry for some of the strong Ninos past (57-58, 65-66) but Im not as worried about super dry this time. The east coast should love the "potential" with the wet signal on all models.

I think if you live at least at 40 N or above you should be happy with the wet signal. It takes a seriously rotter winter to get tons of precip with little snow at that latitude (not saying it can't happen). I'd rather gamble with wet than get stuck with cold dry. I recall 2024-2025 was bitter cold on the east coast but absolutely bone dry because of the niña. Those winters suck.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah it doesn’t look like a disaster. I’m skeptical of these snow anomaly maps to begin with. I just thought it was funny SLK cleans up again. We want as many dice rolls as we can get. Keep it active and we can do ok.

[MarcmmKU]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah it doesn’t look like a disaster. I’m skeptical of these snow anomaly maps to begin with. I just thought it was funny SLK cleans up again. We want as many dice rolls as we can get. Keep it active and we can do ok.

If the northern interior and elevations can squeak out all winter months < 5 F above normal (might be tough to pull off in December) they should do just fine with all the ample moisture. Coast I think is more hit or miss. We'd likely need a period with good blocking to get close to seasonal.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think if you live at least at 40 N or above you should be happy with the wet signal. It takes a seriously rotter winter to get tons of precip with little snow at that latitude (not saying it can't happen). I'd rather gamble with wet than get stuck with cold dry. I recall 2024-2025 was bitter cold on the east coast but absolutely bone dry because of the niña. Those winters suck.

Yes. Typically nina is much better than nino here. But the wet signal is so strong in the east that further "west" here in eastern Michigan there is not the usual dry signal for ninos. Models range from average precip to above average depending on model. 

Weather forums have a wide range of weather enthusiasts so theres lots of different preferences. Last winter was great for me. Cold, white and frozen, a winter lovers dream. I already know thats not happening this time, so thats immediately a knock down of expectation for me. But if you're north of 40N and think you can go nearly 6 months from November thru April with hardly any snow, good luck!

[forkyfork]

love watching the bar get lower and lower

[rclab]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

love watching the bar get lower and lower

Works best if you’re already drunk….. as always…..

[MarcmmKU]

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes. Typically nina is much better than nino here. But the wet signal is so strong in the east that further "west" here in eastern Michigan there is not the usual dry signal for ninos. Models range from average precip to above average depending on model. 

Weather forums have a wide range of weather enthusiasts so theres lots of different preferences. Last winter was great for me. Cold, white and frozen, a winter lovers dream. I already know thats not happening this time, so thats immediately a knock down of expectation for me. But if you're north of 40N and think you can go nearly 6 months from November thru April with hardly any snow, good luck!

If you’re central park you can go a year without much snow at all LOL. More seriously though nyc has gotten the short end of the stick in recent winters. Even though last winter was great, the park still ended with 44” which was significantly below parts of NJ directly adjacent to the city. I think manhattan is a uniquely hostile environment for snow given its latitude.