Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[Layman]

17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Somehow managed normal snows that winter. April snow events helped. Feb storm was fun too. 

I thought 2015 was that winter of non-stop snows after January 1st.  Am I mistaking that?  Was it Christmas 2014 when it was 70 degrees and then January 2015 when the snows started?  I thought it was 2015 into 2016 but my memory sucks with these things...

[rimetree]

10 minutes ago, Layman said:

I thought 2015 was that winter of non-stop snows after January 1st.  Am I mistaking that?  Was it Christmas 2014 when it was 70 degrees and then January 2015 when the snows started?  I thought it was 2015 into 2016 but my memory sucks with these things...

Yeah, that '14-'15. Went from epic to middling the next year.

[forkyfork]

warm and rainy

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True ratter here....wow, just about futility around Chris out in Greenfield.

Worst winter I’ve had in my 17 years here.  Toaster plugged in next to the bathtub by mid February that year.

[forkyfork]

46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Worst winter I’ve had in my 17 years here.  Toaster plugged in next to the bathtub by mid February that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Worst winter I’ve had in my 17 years here.  Toaster plugged in next to the bathtub by mid February that year.

I was so frustrated because I called that blizzard down to within just a few days during the fall, but expected it to get up here....just brutal.

[MarcmmKU]

On 9/10/2026 at 8:21 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I kind of feel dirty for saying this, but December doesn't look awful on the EURO....it starts that ridge up by HB, near where the basin-wide composite has it, before it slides ESE and presses as the season evolves. January looks the most hostile IMHO, especially for the coast.

Pretty damn near climo snowfall...almost looks like the Feb storm track.

It isnt hard for the coast to reach near normal snow in December because December has such bad climo for snow in general. Would take NYC just one 3-5" storm to reach normal for December. That's possible even in an utterly hostile climo. Makes sense that northern NE is far below normal for Dec though.

[MarcmmKU]

On 9/11/2026 at 4:54 PM, George001 said:

The issue I have regarding optimism for this winter is the more fruitful super El Niño analogs are still AN to well AN temp and slightly BN snow. A middle ground solution between the best case analogs and worst case would still be a ratter. I don’t see a path to a good winter with super El Niño, I see a path to a non ratter, but an actual good winter no.

I think we're all more or less on the same page about that one. A bad outcome would be historically bad. The best case possible outcome would likely still be a BN snow winter. No one north of Philly say is getting AN snow.

[bristolri_wx]

12 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think we're all more or less on the same page about that one. A bad outcome would be historically bad. The best case possible outcome would likely still be a BN snow winter. No one north of Philly say is getting AN snow.

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Yea, parts of SE MA were above normal in 2016.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[MarcmmKU]

2 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

There's not much to work with here. I think Feb-March will be a better window perhaps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said:

There's not much to work with here. I think Feb-March will be a better window perhaps.

I don't think December will be representative of the balance of the season.

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would be hesitant to say that no one North of Philly is getting above normal snow.

It only takes three-four large storms to get to climo totals in the coastal plain. The season could still avg +8 temps but 10 days of true winter spread across 3 months can get you above average.

Not saying that will happen… just that it can if we are talking in absolutes. And it would still “feel like a ratter” if it’s rainy and 45 most of the winter outside of those 3-4 storms.

Latitude can help.  January 2023 was +8.8, warmest for that month in 28 winters, but had 29.9" snow, 9.7" AN.  The 4 months DJFM ran +4.7 with each month AN - Feb closest at +1.5 (and least snowy of the 4).  The snow season total was 101.2" (avg currently 88.4") and 96.3" came during those months, 123% of average.

That said, the only very strong Nino since moving here (2015-16) was our worse snow winter, 48.2".

[weathafella]

I think warm and wet should be the default forecast for the upcoming winter.  However, unlike the lowest snow winters which tended to be low qpf, there will be snow imho ranging from 50-80% of normal.  It should be quite stormy but the majority of the storms will probably be wet.  However as others have mentioned, it takes 1-2 big events with just enough cold to allow snow to bring totals close to normal hence the 80% ceiling.

[forkyfork]

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what if there's never just enough cold because of the strongest el nino in history

What if there is blocking and a negative epo ?