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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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One thing we are monitoring is the potential for severe storms
during afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly from 2 PM to
10 PM. Trough axis near eastern Great Lakes should provide
sufficient lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms to
our west both days, and some of this activity could survive the trip
into interior southern New England given warm airmass in place and
more importantly strong westerly flow aloft.

Tue actually looks to be the more interesting day with greatest
potential for severe storms roughly along and west of I-91. Guidance
shows decent instability (1000-1500 J/kg) Tue afternoon along with
rather impressive mid level lapse rates (6-7 C/km) that we don`t see
too often here and sufficient 0-6km shear of 35-40kt. This may be
enough to bring storms into southern New England during the
afternoon and evening with localized wind damage and hail being the
main threats. Note both 3km NAM and RRFS are fairly aggressive in
depicting a small line of storms moving SE across interior Tue
afternoon, though HREF updraft helicities are focused more in
western New England and lightning probabilities are in that area as
well. However, CSU machine learning guidance does highlight much of
interior southern New England with a low severe potential.
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26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I love how Anthony can’t post anything inside of d10 for winter hope….and now we’re nearly into May.  When was the last time NYC had snow that late?   I remember a 2-4” event in April 1956.

that psychology doesn't care if actually happens, Jer'     haha.  c'mon

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