2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the Potomac River into NOVA is favored. Maryland side is just too worked over.

Had plenty of recovery time. If doesn’t storm here it’s not cause of that. The area in pa that is getting smacked now was just as “worked over” this morning. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Check out the left moving supercell into that line in Pittsburgh. Man SW PA is just a thunderstorm machine this summer.

[Eskimo Joe]

Hell of a cell merger about to go right over City of Pittsburgh.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hell of a cell merger about to go right over City of Pittsburgh.

Things you don’t see around here lol

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m on a flight now somewhere over northern Illinois but I’m on the wrong side of the plane to watch for cloud tops as we get closer to the storms.

[yoda]

@Eskimo Joe @high risk @Kmlwx

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon for the region

 

[TSSN+]

That’s some plains level stuff right here 

 

 

[yoda]

Mesoscale Discussion 2221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 032219Z - 040015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing Mesoscale Convective Systems will continue to move
   southeast this evening. The airmass ahead of these storms remains
   very hot and unstable. A wind damage threat is expected to persist
   into the greater Washington D.C. area later this evening. As such, a
   new watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple southeast moving mesoscale convective systems
   (MCS) are ongoing across portions of northern/eastern Ohio and
   western Pennsylvania. The leading MCS is currently located across
   the greater Pittsburgh area, with the trailing MCS across moving
   across northern Ohio and southern Lake Erie.

   Effective layer shear across these linear MCSs is characterized by
   30-40 knots, which is more than sufficient to support ongoing
   organization as the clusters move southeast. Additionally, the
   airmass ahead of these storms remains very hot and humid, with
   surface temperatures in the 90Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid
   70Fs. The result is steep low-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess
   of 3000 J/kg ahead of these storms, all the way into the greater
   Washington D.C. area.

   As evening progresses and the boundary layer cools, low-level lapse
   rates will weaken. However, the degree of thunderstorm organization
   and the very unstable environment ahead of the MCSs will maintain a
   threat for damaging wind well into the evening hours. A new watch
   will likely be needed to the southeast of ongoing watches across
   Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 09/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40907856 40647769 39867645 39817644 39007592 38017562
               37607609 37527666 37797754 38477871 38967941 39727985
               40487948 40907856 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

[Eskimo Joe]

The VIL/VILD and KDP on that stuff in Pittsburgh is nuts.

[batmanbrad]

good summary of what's been going on upstream from us, including the Pittsburgh area MCS activity:

   Mesoscale Discussion 2220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...650...

   Valid 032213Z - 032345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649, 650
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An organizing MCS will yield a greater risk for severe
   wind gusts across portions of southwestern Pennsylvania over the
   next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts an organizing MCS across
   portions of western Pennsylvania, with volume scans over the past 30
   minutes from KPBZ depicting embedded velocities up to 65 kts at 600
   ft AGL. Numerous reports of wind damage have been noted with this
   complex, including downed trees and power lines, with a 62 mph wind
   gust also recently measured at KHLG in far northern West Virginia.
   The downstream environment remains favorable for damaging/severe
   wind gusts, with steep low-level lapse rates (7.5-8.0 K/km),
   moderately strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), and around
   30-40 kts of effective shear in place, as sampled by the 18z PIT
   observed sounding and recent objective analysis. Given this
   environment and the organizing MCS, a locally greater risk for
   damaging/severe wind gusts is likely to accompany this system as it
   progresses east-southeastward across portions of southwestern
   Pennsylvania.

[yoda]

TWs starting to fly from PBZ

[yoda]

I guess we arent getting a watch then?  

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I guess we arent getting a watch then?  

I could be wrong, but I don't think these storms survive into Maryland with enough strength to warrant a watch. If they were even an hour or two earlier then yes.

[WxUSAF]

WPC meso about heavy rain and flash flood potential covers the metro areas 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WPC meso about heavy rain and flash flood potential covers the metro areas 

MCS running into a stationary front at night with a decent amount of elevated CAPE. Laughs nervously. . . .

[TSSN+]

Western Pa just getting smoked. Probably will get screw jobbed here as usual. Missed to the NE yesterday missed to SW today. 

[yoda]

32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think these storms survive into Maryland with enough strength to warrant a watch. If they were even an hour or two earlier then yes.

Understood, and I hate to criticize SPC... but they went watch likely and 80% chance for basically all of us into Delmarva.... to nothing

[mattie g]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WPC meso about heavy rain and flash flood potential covers the metro areas 

I’ll take the under…whatever it is.

[yoda]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think these storms survive into Maryland with enough strength to warrant a watch. If they were even an hour or two earlier then yes.

 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Understood, and I hate to criticize SPC... but they went watch likely and 80% chance for basically all of us into Delmarva.... to nothing

Or..... could just wait a few more minutes lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Watch coming out for NW of I-95 until 2am.

[yoda]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 2am

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch coming out for NW of I-95 until 2am.

Guess they think second line will do something? That first one is dying 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch coming out for NW of I-95 until 2am.

Actually for i95 corridor and Delmarva

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 652
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   840 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Maryland
     Southern New Jersey
     Far Southeast Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Far Eastern West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 840 PM
     until 200 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms capable
   of scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible this evening and
   overnight.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch coming out for NW of I-95 until 2am.

 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Actually for i95 corridor and Delmarva

 

[AlexD1990]

This seems unnecessary 

[WVclimo]

Already getting rolling thunder and lightning from that cell in Hancock, 20 miles to my NW.

[H2O]

No storms the last two days and watch it storm at home now that I’m at the beach