2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

Just now, yoda said:

And a Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued S and SE of there to the Mason Dixon line until midnight 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0646.html

 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 9/1/2026 at 8:50 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Wednesday and Thursday could be legit ENH or MOD for someone in the Northeast or Mid Atlantic.

Called it. ENH in NY and a tornado watch.

[AdamHLG]

Anything for tomorrow ?


.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, AdamHLG said:

Anything for tomorrow ?


.

Mixed bag on the models. NAM nest seemed to like Friday 

[vortex95]

Darn it!  You'd think w/ the BDF getting much farther SW than fcst, and a general rule about 50 mi N of the front when EML-type NW flow, we'd have a nice nocturnal MCS right over the DC area now, but it's still way N still in PA/NJ at this hour, which has got hit repeatedly in the last few days.

Also, the squall line that came through early aftn ydy, you'd think that would have meant convection firing farther S as that what usually occurs in NW flow  Two days ago the axis was just to our NE, and moves S for ydy aftn, but apparent has moved back N?  Odd.

Maybe today finally w/ the svr risk axis fcst right through us, but it was ydy also. 

[vortex95]

Also, see this ydy in wrn NY?  That is *unreal* supercell structure for the East!
https://x.com/voglerweather/status/2095284232893473216/

Radar loop shows classic splitting supercells and then a raging squall line into the same area.  Why can't we get that?

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Also, see this ydy in wrn NY?  That is *unreal* supercell structure for the East!
https://x.com/voglerweather/status/2095284232893473216/

Radar loop shows classic splitting supercells and then a raging squall line into the same area.  Why can't we get that?

Congrats PA as usual. That will just bring us clouds all day Thursday to cap any chance of anything interesting. I've heard thunder like twice this summer. Most boring thunderstorm season i can remember. 

Wow! What a night for Philly area. Endless waves of heavy rain and lightning. Maybe we'll get some dieing storm complex or clouds today. Woohoo lol

[TSSN+]

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Congrats PA as usual. That will just bring us clouds all day Thursday to cap any chance of anything interesting. I've heard thunder like twice this summer. Most boring thunderstorm season i can remember. 

Wow! What a night for Philly area. Endless waves of heavy rain and lightning. Maybe we'll get some dieing storm complex or clouds today. Woohoo lol

Seems been that way for a while south central pa into Maryland been a bust zone but western pa, northern pa and especially eastern pa been getting whacked 

[WxUSAF]

It’s not gonna make it lol

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s not gonna make it lol

Always breaks apart right before my house haha 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Seems been that way for a while south central pa into Maryland been a bust zone but western pa, northern pa and especially eastern pa been getting whacked 

Absolutely! I haven't even had a real thunderstorm this year. Watching PA get crushed all summer has been frustrating. Some places up there had almost 7" of rain just last night. That's on top of 3-4" they had yesterday. 

Hrrr has nothing today for our area. Don't worry though. The same places in pa looked to get crushed again this afternoon. We do humidity and heat.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Absolutely! I haven't even had a real thunderstorm this year. Watching PA get crushed all summer has been frustrating. Some places up there had almost 7" of rain just last night. That's on top of 3-4" they had yesterday. 

Hrrr has nothing today for our area. Don't worry though. The same places in pa looked to get crushed again this afternoon. We do humidity and heat.

I laugh everytime they issue a flood watch for me. Lucky to get 1” of rain here most times.  Crazy how it be that way sometimes. I mean feel like we used to get training storms all the time a few years back and hammered but not the past 2 years. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Also, see this ydy in wrn NY?  That is *unreal* supercell structure for the East!
https://x.com/voglerweather/status/2095284232893473216/

Radar loop shows classic splitting supercells and then a raging squall line into the same area.  Why can't we get that?

You must be new here.

[TSSN+]

54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You must be new here.

Where’s my moderate risk? 

[batmanbrad]

well, at least CSU-MLP thinks much of our area is in the sweet spot for 30% wind damage probabilities for tomorrow, so even if today turns out to be meh, there's hope:

[TSSN+]

The Nam nor hrrr had been handling storms well. Even the bow line in western pa right now just shows it fall apart every run after an hour but yet it is still there every hour lol. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

The Nam nor hrrr had been handling storms well. Even the bow line in western pa right now just shows it fall apart every run after an hour but yet it is still there every hour lol. 

Hrrr seems to eventually wake up. NAM has been awful this year. Limping to the grave lol. FV3 and Herpderp seem to do decently.

[Eskimo Joe]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Where’s my moderate risk? 

PA and NY stole this week from us.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

PA and NY stole this week from us.

Typical. But expected 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Typical. But expected 

The atmosphere is so worked over and there's a metric ton of debris clouds. Classic fail modes in these parts.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The atmosphere is so worked over and there's a metric ton of debris clouds. Classic fail modes in these parts.

Meh not sure if that’s the issue. Pa been worked over but still getting more. We just too far south. But maybe we will see it tonight into tomorrow. Hrrr starting to show a bow echo line between 10pm and midnight for us 

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

PA and NY stole this week from us.

We'll get our fun when we get those trusty El Niño Nor'Easters! hehe 

[adelphi_sky]

54 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Meh not sure if that’s the issue. Pa been worked over but still getting more. We just too far south. But maybe we will see it tonight into tomorrow. Hrrr starting to show a bow echo line between 10pm and midnight for us 

Good sleeping weather. I hope we can at least get some thunder. That's been missing lately. Had a few good boomers this summer though. But just a few. 

[WVclimo]

STW through 10:30 a.m. for my yard.  Radar indicated 60 mph wind gusts.  Waiting….

[Eskimo Joe]

These repeated dying MCS's running into MD make me far more pessimistic that we get anything of substance below Mason-Dixon today. We're just working the atmosphere over too much.

[AmericanWxFreak]

These repeated dying MCS's running into MD make me far more pessimistic that we get anything of substance below Mason-Dixon today. We're just working the atmosphere over too much.

Don’t worry, HRRR says we get another one tomorrow!

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

These repeated dying MCS's running into MD make me far more pessimistic that we get anything of substance below Mason-Dixon today. We're just working the atmosphere over too much.

Working out great for me! Thunder at 6am, lightning showing up now on the approaching MCS. Winning 

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

These repeated dying MCS's running into MD make me far more pessimistic that we get anything of substance below Mason-Dixon today. We're just working the atmosphere over too much.

Yep. Could get more showers/storms but this is horrible timing. 

[yoda]

ENH risk introduced in PA/OH on 1630z OTLK from SPC 

[high risk]

There seems to be growing consensus that an intense MCS will form over northeast OH and western PA late this afternoon and move southeast.   While it (shocker) appears that the best threat will be over southeast PA, at least some of the complex should make it into northern MD and potentially into the Baltimore-Washington corridor later this evening or overnight.