2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

it happened again the same evening. woo storms!

I *never* get sick of +CGs, even when they do not strike close.  One time, I had one strike about 6 mi from me about 1 hr before sunset, and even though I did not see the bolt, the flash was unusually bright and "encompassing" (meaning it was bright all around me, not a flash in the distance) for the daylight hours, and I go, "ooo, there is going to be big thunder."  And I counted, 30 sec later, a really deep THUD!  The acoustics can be really bizarre!

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Or the Ivan tor day in Sep 2004?  What, like 40 tors in VA alone, and many clustered right up to the MD/VA border just W of DC!  I think that day is the only SPC MDT ever issued for a TC tor event.

There were so many tors in VA that day, that if you look at a map for the CONUS showing which month tors are most common for each state, VA says "September" -- all b/c of that Ivan tor day!  It shows how a single outlier event can skew climo big time.

Biggest tornado outbreak in this region. 

[Hank Scorpio]

52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Biggest tornado outbreak in this region. 

That outbreak produced the one and only tornado I've ever seen. I was working at Dulles that day and very wisely ignored the "take shelter" commands issued via loud speaker. Instead I ran up onto the enclosed pedestrian bridge between terminal A and B just in time to watch the tornado drop near the main terminal.

[high risk]

Sign me up for the 00Z HRRR.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Or the Ivan tor day in Sep 2004?  What, like 40 tors in VA alone, and many clustered right up to the MD/VA border just W of DC!  I think that day is the only SPC MDT ever issued for a TC tor event.

There were so many tors in VA that day, that if you look at a map for the CONUS showing which month tors are most common for each state, VA says "September" -- all b/c of that Ivan tor day!  It shows how a single outlier event can skew climo big time.

       

      SPC issued MDTs on back to back days with Ivan.   The first day over the southeast somewhat busted, as too much cloud cover limited instability.   On the second day, we did eventually get a MDT into parts of northern VA, but the threat was not obvious until it evolved in real time.    This was the initial outlook of the day.  The area with a 5% got a SLGT.    (The probabilities ramped up starting with the 1630Z outlook.)

       

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

Sign me up for the 00Z HRRR.

Wow.  You get the classic "discrete cells ahead of line" which you always have to watch closely for tor potential, then big clusters w/  training psbl and FF threat.

And now much of the DMV could do well on Wed as the front gets hung up w/ more training and FF threat.

The 00z HRRR is really big for QPF. 48 hr totals 5" max just NW of DC and a whopping nearly 12" max near WAL!  Well, we do need the rain.

00z RRFS is very similar to the HRRR for big QPF w/ the 5" max just S of DC and an 11" max near WAL.

Winds aloft look better than the last event for svr wx.  I esp. like the 250 mb speed max approaching late in the afternoon, so discrete supercells should sustain better.  Tor threat is there but not high-end.
 

[dailylurker]

Congrats fokes south and east today. Looks like 2-3" of rain and lots of storms. Models looks pretty unenthusiastic for central Maryland. Probably just the normal spots like Fredrick and Glen Burnie see action lol.  Crickets in here for a severe day.

[yoda]

Morning discussion from LWX on the threat today 

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today,
with some thunderstorm risk lingering into Wednesday.

Higher dew points have been advecting into the area with
moisture and instability increasing in S/SW flow. So far shower
activity has been isolated and short lived. However, a subtle
shortwave is approaching, and some of the convection currently
across WV and SW VA could persist or redevelop across the area
through the early morning hours. Areas of stratus are also
forming. Both of these features could inhibit surface heating
this morning, although it does appear we should have some
partial sun by midday as the warm front continues to lift to the
north. This should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into
the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dew points in the 70s,
at least moderate surface based instability should develop,
highest east of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

A seasonably strong trough will be approaching from the west,
providing forcing and anywhere between 30 and 50 kt of flow in
the cloud bearing layer. This will provide a favorable
environment for severe thunderstorms, with supercells and
clusters both possible. One initiation region will likely be
along the prefrontal/lee trough near or just east of the Blue
Ridge. These storms will likely affect the I-95 corridor between
mid afternoon and early evening. While these storms will
certainly carry severe potential, it is interesting to note on
average the 850-700 mb wind fields will be greater to our south
and west until late afternoon or early evening. Other details
remain unresolved, especially the effects of upstream convection
that moved through the upper Great Lakes and mid Mississippi
Valley. This could have some impact on how thunderstorms develop
across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and what subsequently
moves into western areas. If stronger/more widespread
convection does not move in from the Ohio Valley, there is some
potential there is a relative minimum in coverage between the
Blue Ridge and Alleghenies.

The coverage of afternoon storms and upstream effects will
determine what happens this evening as the strongest forcing
overspread the area along with increasing low level wind fields.
A second round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
some areas, though increasing low level stability may limit the
severe weather threat. It appears the evening/overnight coverage
could gradually shift to southern parts of the forecast area, or
even mostly to our south, potentially focusing on outflow from
earlier activity.

Damaging winds will be the primary severe hazard, although
large hail and a tornado or two are possible if supercells
develop. Some localized swaths of more considerable wind damage
are possible. Relatively speaking, the tornado threat is higher
to the north (and north of the CWA) closer to the warm front
and possibly closer to the Chesapeake Bay where low level winds
could be backed. With that said, forecast hodographs vary quite
a bit between models and also throughout time, so any relatively
higher threat will depend on the mesoscale details.

With precipitable water values increasing (over 2 inches east of
the Blue Ridge), any storm mergers and training along mesoscale
boundaries could result in localized flash flooding. Overall
storm motions will be progressive though, so this threat
appears too localized for a Flood Watch at the moment and will
continue to be evaluated. Additional areas to monitor will be
the Ohio Valley low level jet potentially leading to training
(looks to be mostly west of the area), and the evening low level
jet leading to backbuilding along any residual
outflow/convergence feature (best QPF signal is currently mostly
south of the forecast area).

[Kmlwx]

46 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Congrats fokes south and east today. Looks like 2-3" of rain and lots of storms. Models looks pretty unenthusiastic for central Maryland. Probably just the normal spots like Fredrick and Glen Burnie see action lol.  Crickets in here for a severe day.

Our severe crew isn't always up super early (except @yoda who seems to never sleep lol). We don't do the wall-to-wall posting as well as the larger winter crowd. I'd expect by 9-10am you'll get some more of the folks posting in here. 

Pretty cloud in Colesville, MD right now. Haven't looked at visible sat yet though 

[aldie 22]

Light drizzle north of Winchester 

[Kmlwx]

[yoda]

13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Our severe crew isn't always up super early (except @yoda who seems to never sleep lol). We don't do the wall-to-wall posting as well as the larger winter crowd. I'd expect by 9-10am you'll get some more of the folks posting in here. 

Pretty cloud in Colesville, MD right now. Haven't looked at visible sat yet though 

I work overnight (Sunday to Wednesday) so I have time to post lol

Disco says we should get some breaks soon as the WF goes by... we shall see as you said

[Roger Ramjet]

10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Biggest tornado outbreak in this region. 

EF2 raked my subdivision in Remington. Lost 6 homes in my subdivision, including my next door neighbor's house. I lost one shudder - go figure.

[dailylurker]

25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Our severe crew isn't always up super early (except @yoda who seems to never sleep lol). We don't do the wall-to-wall posting as well as the larger winter crowd. I'd expect by 9-10am you'll get some more of the folks posting in here. 

Pretty cloud in Colesville, MD right now. Haven't looked at visible sat yet though 

True lol. I forgot there's like 5 of us that care about severe. I just love thunderstorms. Not like I love snow. Thunderstorms are spicy. They've tried to kill me a few times lol. 

I like seeing those breaks to the west and sw. Let's see what today does. I'm headed down to Fort Washington this morning. On days like today I look like the guy on Good Fellas driving down the road looking at the sky watching for helicopters following him. I look the same but watching for sun lol

 

 

[canderson]

Hive mind:

Should I bail on driving down the 80 miles down from PA to a concert Merriweather/Columbia tonight? Seems … somewhat risk and safer to just swallow the lost $$$. 

(if anyone wants Death Cab for Cutie tickets tonight reach out lol)

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

True lol. I forgot there's like 5 of us that care about severe. I just love thunderstorms. Not like I love snow. Thunderstorms are spicy. They've tried to kill me a few times lol. 

I like seeing those breaks to the west and sw. Let's see what today does. I'm headed down to Fort Washington this morning. On days like today I look like the guy on Good Fellas driving down the road looking at the sky watching for helicopters following him. I look the same but watching for sun lol

 

 

I've always been vocal in my opinion that I love our summer severe crew. With a few notable exceptions over the years we all just seem to mostly get along and not stir up the drama like the larger crowds in winter. Sure....every now and then we get the ethics debate about "rooting for" severe weather. But all in all, we are just fellow weather weenies trudging through the hot, humid, disgusting days of spring through early fall until we can start tracking first frost/freeze. 

This is banter, and I am being a little overly nostalgic - but I mean this wholeheartedly when I say it: Some of my most fond weather memories have been centered around Eastern/AmWx over the years. Sure...the actual weather events themselves are the "core" - but I've experienced them alongside all of you. I've had the pleasure of meeting some great characters from here in person at the conferences as well. 

Whether we bust today (or in general) or not...gotta say ya'll are awesome. 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hive mind:

Should I bail on driving down the 80 miles down from PA to a concert Merriweather/Columbia tonight? Seems … somewhat risk and safer to just swallow the lost $$$. 

(if anyone wants Death Cab for Cutie tickets tonight reach out lol)

Severe wx is fickle....impossible for any of us to say. 5 miles makes a huge difference on days like today for sensible weather. If nothing else - 80 miles isn't terrible in the grand scope of things...and I guess there are worse places to be than Columbia  

[Kmlwx]

Red circled area looks decent...

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Red circled area looks decent...

I don't think we see pure blue skies and sun today... I think as the sat image you posted shows we will have sun and clouds.  Should be enough as long as its like 3 to 5 hours of it

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hive mind:

Should I bail on driving down the 80 miles down from PA to a concert Merriweather/Columbia tonight? Seems … somewhat risk and safer to just swallow the lost $$$. 

(if anyone wants Death Cab for Cutie tickets tonight reach out lol)

Good band but I'm not sure Merriweather is the best place to see them tonight lol

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Good band but I'm not sure Merriweather is the best place to see them tonight lol

A bowl surrounded by a million trees? What ever do you mean? 

[AdamHLG]

I would roll the dice and drive down. Heavy cloud cover here. I always take the under when I wake to cloud cover. Not saying strong storms are not possible, but as stated above I don’t feel it will be as widespread as if we woke to hot hazy clear skies. Disclaimer: I’m not a met. But I am an enthusiast that’s lived here 40 of my adult years.


.

[high risk]

Heating is obviously a concern, but assuming we bust out into some partial clearing by late morning, HRRR and RRFS both have a couple of interesting lead cells followed by a squall line feature.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

Heating is obviously a concern, but assuming we bust out into some partial clearing by late morning, HRRR and RRFS both have a couple of interesting lead cells followed by a squall line feature.

Sun is out in Charlestown wv at my work. 

[yoda]

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
   from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today
   into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the
   most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well.

   ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
   A broad area of 40-50-kt mid-level west-southwesterly flow will
   overspread the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a
   large-scale trough amplifies and shifts across the northeastern
   CONUS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop
   ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across the Ohio Valley and
   along a pre-frontal trough over the Mid-Atlantic. In the base of the
   trough, a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moving from the
   lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic may also serve as a focus
   for convective development. Severe thunderstorm potential could
   increase relatively early today across parts of Ohio into
   Pennsylvania and western New York.

   Diurnal heating within cloud breaks, combined with upper 60s to
   lower 70s F dewpoints, will support at least moderate surface-based
   instability across the broad pre-frontal warm sector. The most
   favorable overlap of this instability and 40-50 kt of effective
   shear is expected from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
   where a mix of organized clusters and supercells should evolve and
   spread eastward through the day. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will
   be the primary severe hazard, though severe hail will also be
   possible with any initial/sustained supercells. Additionally, a
   gradually strengthening and expanding 30-kt low-level jet will
   contribute to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and a few
   tornadoes may occur. This supercell related-tornado potential may
   focus along the warm front into parts of the Northeast, and with
   semi-discrete development later today focusing along the lee
   trough/edge of higher terrain, although low-level shear/SRH will be
   moderate in most of the open warm sector as well.

 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

Heating is obviously a concern, but assuming we bust out into some partial clearing by late morning, HRRR and RRFS both have a couple of interesting lead cells followed by a squall line feature.

Yeah 11z hrrrr seems like a winning scenario for most everyone 

[yoda]

1300z SPC OTLK has moved the ENH southern line south to RIC... was near EZF on 06z outlook

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

Heating is obviously a concern, but assuming we bust out into some partial clearing by late morning, HRRR and RRFS both have a couple of interesting lead cells followed by a squall line feature.

a few peeks of sun out here north of Winchester but not much yet. Is that garbage out in Northern Ohio supposed to be our main show?

[yoda]

Looks like 12z HRRR has some discrete convection from 18z to 20z across the region before QLCS (?) comes through around 22z-23z

[yoda]

12z NAM throwing out some nasty hodographs and STP numbers between 21z and 00z

KFDK at 00z

 

DCA at 00z