yoda Posted Thursday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:15 PM BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 213 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 213 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Linganore-Bartonsville to near Point Of Rocks to 6 miles north of Poolesville to near Leesburg to Purcellville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Olney, Damascus, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Poolesville, Ashburn, Montgomery Village, North Potomac, Redland, Countryside, Purcellville, Round Hill, Boyds, Green Valley, Clarksburg, and Darnestown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:30 PM Watch up until 10pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Thursday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:30 PM That MD cell has some storm rotation. Not tight or anything but I’m sure someone will get a nice storm picture of a sculpted base or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Thursday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:37 PM There’s now a well defined hook on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Thursday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:52 PM Those purples on radar over Germantown look rough. Might be some trees down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:46 PM https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off While probability outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML & AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As details on this system become more defined, will have to continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Friday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:57 PM This has all of the makings of a "pity MD" day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:04 PM 5 minutes ago, high risk said: This has all of the makings of a "pity MD" day. What about on the edge of an actual MD day? I always find those worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Saturday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:55 PM The rare Day 7 SPC outlook for our area! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Saturday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:05 PM https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ ... Friday/Day 7 and Beyond -- Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic ... Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks. Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2026 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Saturday at 03:45 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:45 PM If we are going by weenie superstitions that is a kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:48 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:53 PM A quarter inch of rain would be cool. Not asking for much. That would get me to a little over an inch and a half for the month, while continuing the pathetic monthly totals since March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM 6 hours ago, high risk said: The rare Day 7 SPC outlook for our area! Yes, esp. this time of year when large-scale dynamic forcing and strong low pressure areas are less, yet enough of a signal in the probs for SPC to outlook an area. NW flow aloft can lead to some of the best tornado events due to excellent directional shear. We have good speed shear very often, but strong directional shear is much less common. NW flow promotes lee troughing which can back the low-level winds, so you can over 90 deg turning sfc to 500 mb. And you tend to get solid EMLs for more CAPE overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: Interesting boundary from the storms in South Jersey is moving SW through Northern DE into NE MD, causing storms to fire. I just missed one to my South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Saturday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:49 PM 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is the most pity of pity MDs released. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:51 PM 6 minutes ago, frd said: Interesting boundary from the storms in South Jersey is moving SW through Northern DE into NE MD, causing storms to fire. I just missed one to my South. Yeah I mentioned that outflow boundary in the other thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Saturday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:34 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off KEY MESSAGE 4...Friday could be active and unsettled with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. We are still several days out but we are monitoring the severe weather setup on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted most of the area in a Slight Risk (15% chance of severe thunderstorms 25 miles from any point). Storms look to be driven by a strong cold front swinging in from the northwest and with ample daytime heating and instability, the ingredients are certainly there for strong to severe thunderstorms and damaging wind gusts. In their long term outlook, SPC did mention some small MCS potential during the day 7 to 10 period as some shortwaves are likely to ripple through the northwest flow. Again, still several days out, but we will have to monitor the severe weather potential for the end of the week and possibly next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/# ... Friday/Day 6 -- Mid-Atlantic Region ... This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago Yep - it’s always the most likely scenario when outlooked that far out. Things will almost always trend earlier or later and either direction can of course be worse for timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Good disco from Marsh at SPC in the day 4-8 range Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition. At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs. Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner. That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday. This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days. ..Marsh.. 07/13/2026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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