2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Nomz]

Other forums I'm on have the ability to cut and paste a bunch of posts from one thread to another, could we do that for this thread?

3 minutes ago, coastal front said:

I think the value of a thread is to analyze how tends, model runs, increasing/decreasing threat levels and NWS discussions evolved in the days leading up to the event. Regardless if the top end potential verifies it would make it easier to reflect on how a very rare long lead/ high prob severe threat unfolded day by day for future reference. Most on this board will remember a day 4 30% severe prob over an anafrontal coating that had a thread earlier this week lol. 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

HRRR and NAM seem to be coming in later with the cold front's arrival. 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

HRRR and NAM seem to be coming in later with the cold front's arrival. 

[Eskimo Joe]

00z HRRR is legit. Several pre-frontal mini supercells then a solid squall line.

[Nomz]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z HRRR is legit. Several pre-frontal mini supercells then a solid squall line.

I would be careful writing those off as mini-supes. With such pristine wind profiles, only about 1k cape can get it done.

[Nomz]

The 00z NAM is legit

[Nomz]

Day 2 MDT!!!

[yoda]

Oh

 

[high risk]

The high end scenario is still very real.  The fail scenario is still very real.  

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
   SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND
   MARYLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong,
   and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina
   into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm
   potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle
   into Pennsylvania.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
   the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic
   on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp
   pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the
   Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
   pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front
   will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day
   with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty
   south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints
   across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just
   after warm front passage by late afternoon.

   Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
   to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
   Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
   heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
   event during the afternoon.

   ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...
   Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians
   toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will
   already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
   Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
   perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also
   produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.

   ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
   Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
   rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
   destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
   low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
   Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
   front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
   instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
   SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
   a long tracked tornado will be possible.

   Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
   pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
   moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
   produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
   across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
   will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
   eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
   the evening.

   ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

[Rhino16]

I was expecting like a 10, but I wasn’t sure how they would incorporate the qlcs part of the tor risk into the percentages

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

I was expecting like a 10, but I wasn’t sure how they would incorporate the qlcs part of the tor risk into the percentages

They can go 15 cig 1 without moderate  so I assume that was a pretty easy decision. Also if they were go moderate for wind anyways it doesn’t really matter going 10 or 15% for tornadoes.

[andyhb]

Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).

[Kmlwx]

I'll get a separate thread started in a bit!