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March 2026


snowman19
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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I was one who thought this would be another lame to maybe average at best winter. We really lucked out with the Nov SSW and somewhat slowed Pacific Jet. 

Yep that changed everything along with a persistent-WPO and -NAO.

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Outside of a couple cold days it's over

Remember, I'm ~45 miles in and at 700 feet so nights are cold. I think I undershot and therefore underbudgeted for the cold 3 months and with the pop in oil (and diesel) prices it's a bad time to be stuck buying enough for 6 cold weeks when I probably only need 30-50 more gallons.

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It will begin to turn milder tomorrow. The temperature will return to the middle 40s tomorrow afternoon. Readings will then return mainly to the 50s for Friday through the weekend. The mercury could reach 60° on Saturday.

The major weather story this week is the super March heatwave that is under way in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are being set in numerous cities. Today, Flagstaff, Palm Springs, and Phoenix are among the cities setting March monthly records. Additional records are likely in coming days. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +3.73 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.539 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.7° (1.9° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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29 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

F this. April 22nd I'm okay with it, not March 22. Basically 20-25 degrees above normal. To much too soon, like last weeks travesty. 

And add 5-10 degrees to those temps this time of year with no leaves on the trees and where winds aren’t onshore. 

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1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It would be the first solidly AN month for temps since September.

And it's already been solidly above average over halfway through the month. Quite a different pattern from what we saw this winter with parts of the Northeast actually experiencing the greatest temp departures from normal in the lower 48.

MonthTDeptUS.png

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1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

And it's already been solidly above average over halfway through the month. Quite a different pattern from what we saw this winter with parts of the Northeast actually experiencing the greatest temp departures from normal in the lower 48.

MonthTDeptUS.png

The warmth finally came east after geting stuck in the west all winter.

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4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Remember, I'm ~45 miles in and at 700 feet so nights are cold. I think I undershot and therefore underbudgeted for the cold 3 months and with the pop in oil (and diesel) prices it's a bad time to be stuck buying enough for 6 cold weeks when I probably only need 30-50 more gallons.

Exactly yeah, next week is the last full week of March, and I'm not seeing anything crazy warm.  Monday through Friday most highs are 40's to low 50's with 20's and 30's at night.

I'm not saying we don't end up AN this month but it's not like we wall to wall torched.  The crazy departures last week will make the month look worse on paper of course.

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3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

several cold air intrusions are not a fantasy so when cold enough air is present always a chance of some precip/storms popping up -- models will not see it until just prior sometimes this time of year - remember 4/7/03 and 4/6/82 ? And how about this seasons analog winter of 95-96 on April 9-10, 1996 ?

Snow and ice storm, April 7, 2003 - Storm Summary

Snow storm, April 9-10, 1996 - Storm Summary

The Anafront was a fantasy. The cold also since the Euro is way warmer than the gfs going forward.

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3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

several cold air intrusions are not a fantasy so when cold enough air is present always a chance of some precip/storms popping up -- models will not see it until just prior sometimes this time of year - remember 4/7/03 and 4/6/82 ? And how about this seasons analog winter of 95-96 on April 9-10, 1996 ?

Snow and ice storm, April 7, 2003 - Storm Summary

Snow storm, April 9-10, 1996 - Storm Summary

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

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22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It would appear that the trend we saw since November of the models getting colder as we get closer in time has finally ended this month. Sunday continues to warm on the models. Last week overperformed too

Yeah, back to our regularly scheduled programming following a rare 4 month hiatus. 
 

IMG_5960.thumb.png.c7a571f0bdbd6fda4da3a27ab843fc98.png
 

 

IMG_5961.jpeg

 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They got absolutely blasted and the official ob from 2 days ago had 51” on the ground. I believe it. 

The lake effect zones usually do pretty well unless there is a strong El Niño.
 

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The lake effect zones usually do pretty well unless there is a strong El Niño.
 

 

Not a typical La Niña snow distribution. You’d at least expect the NW and N Rockies to do very well and better in the upper Midwest. NNE still has a ways to go but they usually do very well also in a Nina. 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not a typical La Niña snow distribution. You’d at least expect the NW and N Rockies to do very well a better in the upper Midwest. NNE still has a ways to go but they usually do very well also in a Nina. 

Yeah, the record ridge covering the West into Central states completely overpowered the pattern with warm and dry for much of the country. So we have moved past the usual old school La Niña correlations. This is now the age of the super 500 mb ridge that is going to cancel your winter in the locations where it gets stuck stuck in place.

A remarkable 42% of the Contiguous U.S. had record Dec-Feb 500 mb heights.
bafkreihyp3kqzfehrqxrza6o26ctj5ek5zphjnt
 
10:41 PM · Mar 8, 2026

 

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21 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not even an inch of snow for March.  Terrible ending to a great winter.

Cant complain since we had winter from December right through end of February.

I found it interesting that only 4 winters since 1970 had 5 or more inches of snow for both December and March. 

Its usually one or the other except for extreme winters like 93/94, 95/96, 02/03 and 17/18.

Even the great winter of 13/14 was a shutout in March.

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19 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I thinkthe last time I had more than an inch of snow here in March was 2019

We got 1 to 3 March 9, 2022.

Its every other decade. 2030 through 2039 will likely be similar to 2010 through 2019 which was a great decade for March snow).

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22 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not even an inch of snow for March.  Terrible ending to a great winter.

Cant complain since we had winter from December right through end of February.

Reversion to the March 2020s snowfall mean following all the great 2010s Marches. 
 

March Monthly 2020s Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.1 0.1
2026 T T
2025 0.0 0.0
2024 T T
2023 0.1 0.1
2022 0.4 0.4
2021 T T
2020 T T

 

March 2010s Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 6.0 6.0
2019 10.4 10.4
2018 11.6 11.6
2017 9.7 9.7
2016 0.9 0.9
2015 18.6 18.6
2014 0.1 0.1
2013 7.3 7.3
2012 0.0 0.0
2011 1.0 1.0
2010 T T
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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

They got absolutely blasted and the official ob from 2 days ago had 51” on the ground. I believe it. 

Marquette had a very solid 18" pack a week ago before getting that dump, there are massive piles there for sure. Cool videos too of highway crews working on opening up the country roads.

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34 / 21 clouds with some breaks of sun.  About 5-10 degrees warmer than what should wind up as the coldest day - yesterday of the next week or much longer.  50s and low 60s Fri - Sat and pending on sun breaking out, Sunday could push mid - upper 60s or more in the warmest spots.  back and forth the next 7 - 10 days hovering near to slightly above normal for the period through 3/26.   Beyond there looks to nudge warmer as we close the month.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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