SACRUS Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 A drier week Today - Mar 12, still think we need to watch the front Wed 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 39 minutes ago, SACRUS said: A drier week Today - Mar 12, still think we need to watch the front Wed 11th. Hopefully, the EC-AIFS will score another win over the OP Euro like it has been doing all winter with the backdoor further north allowing the first 70s of the season for the usual warm spots in NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I'm skeptical given the chilly waters off the coast-granted the snowpack will be all but gone by next Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, the EC-AIFS will score another win over the OP Euro like it has been doing all winter with the backdoor further north allowing the first 70s of the season for the usual warm spots in NJ. You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Rainfall last two days 1.66". Total since March 1 = 2.19". Good riddance to the road salt and dare I say good riddance to the snow cover as well. Down to about 1/2" here with 25% coverage. Plowed mounds are another story and it will likely take another week plus to get rid of the mounds on my street. Even longer for parking lot mounds which are still impressive. Looking forward to the coming warmth next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 21 minutes ago, cmillzz said: You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see. The EC-AIFS is most optimistic with 3 days starting next Monday potentially reaching 70°+ in NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I'm skeptical given the chilly waters off the coast-granted the snowpack will be all but gone by next Wed I hope so-the AIFS being right but we know how these backdoor setups usually go this time of year and even into May some years-they’re more aggressive than models show 100+ hours out. And the waters have a long way to go to start warming up. Jones Beach has been 35-36 degrees the last few days. That’ll make itself felt any way it can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: 1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday. dewpoints will be close to 50-55 that will do the dirty work not to mention full sun early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: 1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday. Yep. Just the big dirt ice piles to look forward to. Probably take several days or more of 70s to get rid of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Further: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Further: I'll think it'll warm up but ridging stays west and we'll be more prone to BDCFs. The month doesn't scream torch to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Looks like a 4-5 day window for anything wintry and then that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like a 4-5 day window for anything wintry and then that's it. Looking like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4th straight day of clouds and to to go, we'll see if we can clear up a bit sunday pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 44 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Your warmth will finally be here. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Even it its 1 day all we need is a snowstorm to get NYC to 50 and Providence to the all time record. A long window would not even matter that late in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Your warmth will finally be here. Congrats. I'm ready-can't wait to see the rest of this mess disappear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Further: I’m not convinced this changes the character of this Winter in any respect, but you do you. I’ve noticed some posts suggesting this winter wasn’t actually that cold by some of the Gretanistas, but it falls flat for most (those of us that went outside anyway). Its gets warmer in Spring. We’re all fine here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Even it its 1 day all we need is a snowstorm to get NYC to 50 and Providence to the all time record. A long window would not even matter that late in the season. I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 An early taste of spring is imminent. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. The temperature will likely surge into the lower 50s tomorrow and then lower 60s on Sunday. The first half of next week will likely see highs in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it could turn cooler. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +25.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.318 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong? The NAO and AO become important this time of year to lock in the airmass-otherwise it's transient. Our best bet at something interesting could be a warm front or SWFE depending on the airmass ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong? Why do you keep asking people for clarification? It's definitely possible to see some snow with this upcoming pattern but a big storm is unlikely. There will be enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why do you keep asking people for clarification? It's definitely possible to see some snow with this upcoming pattern but a big storm is unlikely. There will be enough cold air. It's turned wetter as of late-I Wouldn't rule out a big storm-question will be precip type this time of yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong? Shorter wave lengths change the importance of various teleconnections. Some have difficulty accepting that there are no universal patterns that apply at all times. Some on X/Twitter were insisting on the importance of a PNA+ ahead of the recent blizzard. Undoubtedly, they must be confounded that it occurred with a strongly negative PNA. But not those who understand the synoptic patterns. During the second half of February, a PNA- is more conducive to big Northeast snowstorms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Make it stop April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 One last chance during this timeframe and thats it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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