SACRUS Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (2022) NYC: 68 (2022) LGA: 68 (2022) JFK: 63 (2004) Lows: EWR: 12 (2015) NYC: 5 (1872) LGA: 14 (2007) JFK: 13 (2015) Historical: 1872 - A cold wave hit the East coast sending the mercury plunging to 8 degrees below zero at Boston. It was the most severe March cold wave in modern history. (David Ludlum) 1875: Heavy snow fell in much of Arkansas, with the highest amounts in the central and west. Twelve inches of snow fell at Little Rock, which remains the highest calendar day snowfall on record in the capital city. 30 inches fell near Mena. 1900 - A chinook wind blowing down the slopes of the Rockies through Havre MT raised the temperature 31 degrees in just three minutes. (The Weather Channel) 1908: A tropical storm developed about 500 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rice, on March 6. The storm intensified to Category 2 strength near the Leeward Islands of Saint-Barthélemy and Saint Kitts. Since 1842, this was the only hurricane to develop in the Atlantic Ocean in March. 1954 - Florida received its greatest modern-day snowfall of record, with 4.0 inches at the Milton Experimental Station. Pensacola FL equalled their 24-hour record with 2.1 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1961: The maximum temperature for the date is 81 °F in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1962: The strongest nor'easter of this century struck the Mid-Atlantic Region on March 5-9, 1962. It is known as the "Ash Wednesday Storm" and caused over $200 million (1962 dollars) in property damage and significant coastal erosion from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. It was estimated to have destroyed or significantly damaged 45,000 homes in New Jersey alone. The Red Cross recorded that the storm killed 40 people. It hit during "Spring Tide." When the sun and moon are in phase, they produce a higher-than-average astronomical tide. Water reached nine feet at Norfolk (flooding begins around five feet). Houses were toppled into the ocean, and boardwalks were broken and twisted. The islands of Chincoteague and Assateague, Maryland, were completely underwater. Ocean City, Maryland, sustained significant damage, mainly to the island's south end. Winds up to 70 mph built 40-foot waves at sea. Heavy snow fell in the Appalachian Mountains. Big Meadows, southeast of Luray, recorded Virginia's greatest 24-hour snowfall with 33 inches and the most significant single storm snowfall with 42 inches. (Luray, Virginia reported 33.5 inches on March 2-3, 1994, making this later snow their maximum 24-hour snowfall total.) Roads were blocked, and electrical service was out for several days. Washington and Baltimore fell into the mixed precipitation zone. The Ash Wednesday storm is noteworthy for producing devastating tidal flooding along the Atlantic Coast and record snows and the interior of Virginia. The extremely high tides and massive waves caused tremendous damage -worst than many hurricanes that have hit the region. Along the Atlantic Coast, tide ran for 2 to 6 ft above average with 20 to 40 ft waves crashing ashore. National Airport received only 4 inches of snow with a liquid equivalent of 1.33 inches. However, close-in suburbs, such as Silver Spring, Maryland, and Falls Church, Virginia, received 11 inches of snow. Outlying areas such as Rockville, Maryland, received 19 inches of snow, and Leesburg, Virginia, received 20 inches of snow. Other snow totals included 15 inches at Richmond; 23 inches at Culpeper; 26 inches at Charlottesville; 32 inches at Winchester; and 35 inches at Fort Royal, Virginia, and Big Meadows on the Skyline Drive top the list with 42 inches of snow. 1987 - Twenty-eight cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Pickstown SD was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 83 degrees. The high of 71 at Saint Cloud MN smashed their previous record by 21 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Wintry weather developed in the Rockies and the Plateau Region as arctic air swept in from the northwest. Blizzard conditions in southeast Idaho claimed the lives of two teenagers. Thunderstorms developed in Utah and Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A winter storm in the south central U.S. left parts of Missouri and Arkansas buried under more than a foot of snow. Heavier snowfall totals in Missouri included 14 inches at Springfield and 16 inches at Lebanon. Totals in Benton County AR ranged up to 14 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Colorado's strongest winter storm of the season moved northeastward across the state producing 50 inches of snow at Echo Lake, 46.5 inches on Buckhorn Mountain, and 46 inches near the top of Coal Canyon. Snow fell at the rate of several inches per hour during the height of the storm, while winds gusted above 50 mph. Several hundred rush hour commuters, including the state governor, were stranded in blizzard conditions along Highway 36 between Denver and Boulder. Drifts up to twelve feet high had to be cleared southeast of Boulder. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004: More snow fell on March 6, 2004, than ever recorded for a single day in March since the Korea Meteorological Administration began keeping records in 1904. According to news reports, the city of Daejon (Taejon) in central South Korea received 19 inches of snow on Friday, with an additional 6 inches (15 centimeters) forecast for Saturday. As the storm moved away from the peninsula on March 7. 2010: At least seven funnel clouds were observed along the Orange County coast in southern California. Two were spotted near John Wayne Airport. 2014: The Great Lakes saw some of their worst ice covers in nearly four decades because of a frigid winter with months of below-freezing temperatures in large sections of the northern United States, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration said. As of Mach 6, 2014, the federal agency said that 92.2 percent of the five lakes were under ice, breaking a record set in 1973 but still short of the 94.7 percent established in 1979. 2017: Early data from the GOES-East satellite warned forecasters from the NWS office in Dodge City, Kansas, about a wildfire before any 911 calls were made. As a result, they were able to start planning evacuations sooner and saving lives. 2017: A line of storms brought widespread wind damage and tornadoes to Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and northern Missouri. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago A drier week Today - Mar 12, still think we need to watch the front Wed 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 39 minutes ago, SACRUS said: A drier week Today - Mar 12, still think we need to watch the front Wed 11th. Hopefully, the EC-AIFS will score another win over the OP Euro like it has been doing all winter with the backdoor further north allowing the first 70s of the season for the usual warm spots in NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago I'm skeptical given the chilly waters off the coast-granted the snowpack will be all but gone by next Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, the EC-AIFS will score another win over the OP Euro like it has been doing all winter with the backdoor further north allowing the first 70s of the season for the usual warm spots in NJ. You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Rainfall last two days 1.66". Total since March 1 = 2.19". Good riddance to the road salt and dare I say good riddance to the snow cover as well. Down to about 1/2" here with 25% coverage. Plowed mounds are another story and it will likely take another week plus to get rid of the mounds on my street. Even longer for parking lot mounds which are still impressive. Looking forward to the coming warmth next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 21 minutes ago, cmillzz said: You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see. The EC-AIFS is most optimistic with 3 days starting next Monday potentially reaching 70°+ in NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I'm skeptical given the chilly waters off the coast-granted the snowpack will be all but gone by next Wed I hope so-the AIFS being right but we know how these backdoor setups usually go this time of year and even into May some years-they’re more aggressive than models show 100+ hours out. And the waters have a long way to go to start warming up. Jones Beach has been 35-36 degrees the last few days. That’ll make itself felt any way it can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: 1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday. dewpoints will be close to 50-55 that will do the dirty work not to mention full sun early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: 1.78" from this storm. Snow pack still holding strong. 60% coverage. Hopefully shes gone by sunday. Yep. Just the big dirt ice piles to look forward to. Probably take several days or more of 70s to get rid of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Further: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Further: I'll think it'll warm up but ridging stays west and we'll be more prone to BDCFs. The month doesn't scream torch to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looks like a 4-5 day window for anything wintry and then that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like a 4-5 day window for anything wintry and then that's it. Looking like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4th straight day of clouds and to to go, we'll see if we can clear up a bit sunday pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 44 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Your warmth will finally be here. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO Even it its 1 day all we need is a snowstorm to get NYC to 50 and Providence to the all time record. A long window would not even matter that late in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Your warmth will finally be here. Congrats. I'm ready-can't wait to see the rest of this mess disappear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Further: I’m not convinced this changes the character of this Winter in any respect, but you do you. I’ve noticed some posts suggesting this winter wasn’t actually that cold by some of the Gretanistas, but it falls flat for most (those of us that went outside anyway). Its gets warmer in Spring. We’re all fine here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 50 minutes ago Author Share Posted 50 minutes ago 55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Even it its 1 day all we need is a snowstorm to get NYC to 50 and Providence to the all time record. A long window would not even matter that late in the season. I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago An early taste of spring is imminent. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. The temperature will likely surge into the lower 50s tomorrow and then lower 60s on Sunday. The first half of next week will likely see highs in the 60s. Some 70s are possible in the warmer spots, especially in interior New Jersey. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. Afterward, it could turn cooler. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +25.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.318 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong? The NAO and AO become important this time of year to lock in the airmass-otherwise it's transient. Our best bet at something interesting could be a warm front or SWFE depending on the airmass ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I just don’t see how the NYC metro area gets a snowstorm out of that modeled look at mid-March. The NAO is going to be raging positive, no 50/50 low and there’s going to be a +AO. The EPO is going to be positive to boot. The only thing I guess it has going for it is a -WPO but @donsutherland1 has said a few times that the WPO isn’t important anymore at this time of the year. I know the buzz around twitter is saying differently and I don’t buy it. Just my opinion. @forkyfork Correct me if I’m wrong? Why do you keep asking people for clarification? It's definitely possible to see some snow with this upcoming pattern but a big storm is unlikely. There will be enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why do you keep asking people for clarification? It's definitely possible to see some snow with this upcoming pattern but a big storm is unlikely. There will be enough cold air. It's turned wetter as of late-I Wouldn't rule out a big storm-question will be precip type this time of yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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