2/26 - Follow-up Hopium Battlezone Storm

[Jake Wx]

[midatlanticweather]

[MountainGeek]

Apparently GFS has heard the pitiful cries of the western crew......

[clskinsfan]

36 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

HAahahahahahaaha! No chance that will verify out here. 

[jayyy]

Isn’t this thing like 48 hours out? Fucking GFS

[stormtracker]

Euro is like what storm?..still pushed to our south

[TSSN+]

Choke FS or Joke FS 

 

[mitchnick]

46 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is like what storm?..still pushed to our south

Every other model is likewise except the AIGFS clips us vs the flush hit on the Gfs. But I'm thinking we may as well flush the Gfs forecast. Unless you want to bet on the Gfs vs the world.

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Every other model is likewise except the AIGFS clips us vs the flush hit on the Gfs. But I'm thinking we may as well flush the Gfs forecast. Unless you want to bet on the Gfs vs the world.

Worked out pretty well for last storm, why not bet on gfs baby! 

[Jebman]

On 2/23/2026 at 3:55 PM, TowsonWeather said:

"If I'm in town, lock it down. If I'm in Houston, it ain't producin'"

We got us a Winnah.

[IronTy]

This solution looks like the typical Southern Maryland white rain so I expect it should verify.  

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Worked out pretty well for last storm, why not bet on gfs baby! 

0z says Gfs had it's 1 win for the year in our back yards, and this isn't going to be number 2.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, 0z Euro still hates this thing

[TSSN+]

Can’t wait to watch another short range gfs bust 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS on its own for Th. If the grass gets covered, it scores a coup.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS on its own for Th. If the grass gets covered, it scores a coup.

0 chance we dance, this model is ass 

trying to rhyme lol

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

0 chance we dance, this model is ass 

trying to rhyme lol

Truly horrible indeed.

[Interstate]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Can’t wait to watch another short range gfs bust 

 

I don’t know how you call the GFS a bust with the last storm. It call it out on Wednesday a full 5 days before the storm when no other model was even close. Yes it did adjust, but it didn’t not waver once. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I don’t know how you call the GFS a bust with the last storm. It call it out on Wednesday a full 5 days before the storm when no other model was even close. Yes it did adjust, but it didn’t not waver once. 

Did not waver once? It went from 6” plus back to Pittsburgh and DC/Baltimore area getting 20”+ and watching it bleed back to nothing. Even at the end it got the foresvast wrong as was only giving Boston area like 15”. Only think it got right was that the low would be closer to the coast everything else was awful. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Did not waver once? It went from 6” plus back to Pittsburgh and DC/Baltimore area getting 20”+ and watching it bleed back to nothing. Even at the end it got the foresvast wrong as was only giving Boston area like 15”. Only think it got right was that the low would be closer to the coast everything else was awful. 

It was by far of the superior model for this past storm.  

[TSSN+]

As @DDweatherman would put this one … shits dead 

[North Balti Zen]

TSSN - you are wrong on this one. GFS was the only model showing a storm of any significance up to 60 hours before the event. Everything else was nothing. I get why you are annoyed it didn't hit flush , but it had the set-up 100% correct - everything else was playing catchup. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

14 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

HAahahahahahaaha! No chance that will verify out here. 

I hope not, I haven't finished shoveling the 8" the GFS gave us Sunday.

[clskinsfan]

I mean the GFS just wont give up on it. 

 

The EURO on the other hand?

[mitchnick]

I know usefulness at this point may be questioned, but here's the 24hr snowfall off 6z runs of Eps and Gefs.

[MillvilleWx]

We did some reanalysis of the GFSv16 (Current model iteration) and GFSv17 (Newer GFS that will replace the current version) and found the current GFS actually did a phenomenal job at SLP placement for majority of its runs and absolutely smoked the CMC and ECMWF overall. However, it did have a 48 hr window where the SLP depiction was about 50-75 miles too far west and that caused a lot of QPF negative feedback on the western periphery of the main field. It handled a lot of other areas correctly and outperformed the EC and CMC still on QPF as those models were way too light on QPF. 
 

Overall, it was a great job by the GFS, but as is always the case, the result is usually a blend of models and not just one individual deterministic. The NBM QPF was skewed by some overly zealous members, mainly some CAMs that will actually not be there for the next version of the NBM (NBM5.0). We are working with MDL (Model Diagnostics Lab) to generate these analyses to improve upon what we have and go forward. Overall forecast ended up being amazing for the high impacted areas and average at best for those on the edges. With a storm like this, every mile can make a big difference in appreciable impacts. 

[ravensrule]

27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

We did some reanalysis of the GFSv16 (Current model iteration) and GFSv17 (Newer GFS that will replace the current version) and found the current GFS actually did a phenomenal job at SLP placement for majority of its runs and absolutely smoked the CMC and ECMWF overall. However, it did have a 48 hr window where the SLP depiction was about 50-75 miles too far west and that caused a lot of QPF negative feedback on the western periphery of the main field. It handled a lot of other areas correctly and outperformed the EC and CMC still on QPF as those models were way too light on QPF. 
 

Overall, it was a great job by the GFS, but as is always the case, the result is usually a blend of models and not just one individual deterministic. The NBM QPF was skewed by some overly zealous members, mainly some CAMs that will actually not be there for the next version of the NBM (NBM5.0). We are working with MDL (Model Diagnostics Lab) to generate these analyses to improve upon what we have and go forward. Overall forecast ended up being amazing for the high impacted areas and average at best for those on the edges. With a storm like this, every mile can make a big difference in appreciable impacts. 

Do you think the Goofus has any chance of being right here?. 

[baltosquid]

NAMs still not aboard. HRRR not aboard. FV3 is only one of the early 12z runs I’ve seen to snow, lol.

 

edit: it runs later than others so I checked the 06z MPAS RRFS and it does snow too with some mixing. Seems like dissemination issues are plaguing the “normal” experimental RRFS and I had to find it through NCEP rather than pivotal but it also had mixy snow. So we’ve got abortive CAMs and experimental CAMs on our side……

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

NAMs still not aboard. HRRR not aboard. FV3 is only one of the early 12z runs I’ve seen to snow, lol.

 

edit: it runs later than others so I checked the 06z MPAS RRFS and it does snow too with some mixing. Seems like dissemination issues are plaguing the “normal” experimental RRFS and I had to find it through NCEP rather than pivotal but it also had mixy snow. So we’ve got abortive CAMs and experimental CAMs on our side……

Extended 9z (C)RAP does bring light precip (.05" or less) through us, but it's rain. Lol

[high risk]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Overall, it was a great job by the GFS, but as is always the case, the result is usually a blend of models and not just one individual deterministic. The NBM QPF was skewed by some overly zealous members, mainly some CAMs that will actually not be there for the next version of the NBM (NBM5.0). We are working with MDL (Model Diagnostics Lab) to generate these analyses to improve upon what we have and go forward. Overall forecast ended up being amazing for the high impacted areas and average at best for those on the edges. With a storm like this, every mile can make a big difference in appreciable impacts. 

       Great post, but you really need to check what MDL stands for.