March Madness

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

27.5F  Light to moderate snow.  Good snow growth.  Most of the precip in the last hour has been a mix of sleet and with some snow.  It has switched now to all snow.  Vis about 3/4"

Yup…all pure snow now here too. Probably 3/4sm -SN

[Lava Rock]

Decent rates. All sn, anout 0.5". 29f

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[HIPPYVALLEY]

Eyeballing about 2” in Glen, NH. 

[Torch Tiger]

47 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Decent rates. All sn, anout 0.5". 29f

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you're enjoying it too much..act like it hurts

[bobbutts]

Snowed for a bit earlier but driveway has cleared itself already.  Dropped from 35 to 34.

[dryslot]

SN, 29/28°F, 2" so far.

SPECI KLEW 221551Z AUTO 09007KT 1/2SM SN FG SCT006 OVC010 00/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0000 FZRANO

 

[MJO812]

Just in time for April

[DavisStraight]

Had a brief snow shower that covered the ground, now just a cold rain.

[1985 Polar Bear]

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SN, 29/28°F, 2" so far.

SPECI KLEW 221551Z AUTO 09007KT 1/2SM SN FG SCT006 OVC010 00/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0000 FZRANO

 

Has the Sabattus / Orange water main break washed any of it away?!

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 1985 Polar Bear said:

Has the Sabattus / Orange water main break washed any of it away?!

Its on orange street in Lew.

[dendrite]

0.6” snow

31.6° with -ZR and an occasional frozen hydrometeor. 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just in time for April

Positive to neutral…and if you look at the 10-14 day forecasts it’s been verifying more positive. 

[tamarack]

Between 3 and 4", still moderate but barely.  Radar points to this continuing the rest of the day, though accumulation might be minimal later this aft.  Maybe reach 6"?

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Between 3 and 4", still moderate but barely.  Radar points to this continuing the rest of the day, though accumulation might be minimal later this aft.  Maybe reach 6"?

I just switched back to ice pellets/graupel. You and Dryslot should do well.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just in time for April

Stop it / that would be horrible 

[dryslot]

Coming down at some of the heaviest rates thus far, +SN, 30F 

[Torch Tiger]

if any ridging is weak and east towards Scandinavia, meh...summer rolls on

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

if any ridging is weak and east towards Scandinavia, meh...summer rolls on

I actually looked at that and figured here we go-spring!  Then I realized it’s d15.  Back to thinking about other things…

[powderfreak]

We’ve gone to sleety snow with some freezing mist.  Small bouncing IP mixed with some flakes.

[Lava Rock]

2.75"

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[vortex95]

16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just compare the standard deviations for the cold in Alaska, versus the heat in the southwest

Whichever is of greater magnitude wins the debate 

 

Absolute values given taken snapshot are not the same as longer-term values.  In the end, it's what occurs over a long period of time and how it all averages out, rather than individual events.  And what you chose as a period of time matters.  We tend to think in very short time periods, contaminated by recency bias and the lack of full knowledge of wx history.

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, tunafish said:

Weird, weak arguments.

The primary urban heat island effect is at night.  

Also 40/50 states - lines are arbitrary and without a map they all disappear.

 

I never said the primary urban heat island effect was not at night.

1-2 F per day biased warmed max is huge for long-term climate records. esp. when you consider we think we can get avg regional or global temps correct/accurate down the the 100th of degree, and we obsess when we "beat" a record by a fraction of degree, not mentioning the uncertainty at all.  Using precision to give an illusion of accuracy.  Bad science.

And some sites have a huge warm bias during the day.  Look at Baltimore/Inner Harbor (KDMH).  You often see it 7 F warmer for maxes than BWI, and this is an official climate location and gets reported as fact.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4” Glen NH

 

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but since Alaska is cold it's okay if the west is shattering all time highs by 8-10 degrees for multiple days. 

Also UHI or something is the cause because that definitely affects daytime highs 

UHI does impact daytime highs (Baltimore/Inner Harbor is perhaps the most egregious example).  Also, local airport infrastructure and sensor placement impact highs, regardless of UHI.  

[dendrite]

They’re shattering records in areas of sparse population.

It’s simply a record breaking airmass.

[vortex95]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’re shattering records in areas of sparse population.

It’s simply a record breaking airmass.

That is correct. I never it is wasn't a record breaking air mass.

Local contamination from infrastructure is common even in sparely populated areas. Parking lots, vehicle traffic, solar panel arrays, AC units, etc. all contribute. And the digital thermometers have a warm bias compared to glass thermometers b/c they record instantaneous temp and react quickly to any changes in the air.  ASOS use 5-min avg temp to mitigate this, but sensors and equipment out there are far from standardized, never mind not all ideally located (look the areal view of the official temp sensor in Death Valley, parking lots and solar arrays all around).  So it's not just UHI that skew temp records.

It's all too easy to get caught up in it all when big wx events occur.  I get that.  It is our passion for wx that drives it.  However, we should not let that cloud our judgement when talking about caveats and shortcomings that just happen to "deflate" that excitement or how impressive it is.  Taking everything as face value and acting there is nothing to question or analyze is not a good scientific position.

[dryslot]

Eyeballing a bit over 4” now

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Absolute values given taken snapshot are not the same as longer-term values.  In the end, it's what occurs over a long period of time and how it all averages out, rather than individual events.  And what you chose as a period of time matters.  We tend to think in very short time periods, contaminated by recency bias and the lack of full knowledge of wx history.

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

 

It’s a means to determine which region is experiencing the greatest anomaly

It’s the average of the deviation from the norm, which is climatology
 

There is no flaw on that premise

 

[Lava Rock]

Eyeballing a bit over 4” now

Not snowblowing. Let it melt.

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[vortex95]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

It’s a means to determine which region is experiencing the greatest anomaly

It’s the average of the deviation from the norm, which is climatology
 

There is no flaw on that premise

 

I said this about flawed premise:

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

I was not talking about the definitions from the norm or anomalies.  I was talking about the idea of "win" or "lose" and that concept bring brought into a scientific discussion.  So your reply is a non-sequitur.