March Madness

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Here’s The big takeaway…this always happens as we approach the mid range…the models lose the system either out to sea, or it turns into a cutter, or gets shredded. This is no different.  Each time this year they’ve come back. The pattern supports a storm, that’s the important part. We will see where this heads over the course of this week. signal is there.  
 

Anybody who thought the models wouldn’t deviate from 8-10 days out was fooling themselves.  This loss of the system was coming…it always does. 
 

Maybe this time it doesn’t come back, it’s as good a possibility as any, but we don’t know that yet.  See where it stands come the end of the week…and that’s a ways out. 

This time the trough is a little too sharp and just sends the low flying up the Great Lakes. NNE perhaps could grab something on the front end.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Big temperature differences from the valley to the hills.
 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

52 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Fastest pack wipe incoming, since I’ve been here. What a stretch to prep for spring.

Amazing that we’ll be able to melt out without experiencing any flooding anywhere.  That’s the way to do it.

[Kitz Craver]

12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Amazing that we’ll be able to melt out without experiencing any flooding anywhere.  That’s the way to do it.

Except for basements, lol

[SouthCoastMA]

3/16 would work with any blocking or confluence, but nada

[Typhoon Tip]

54      at Worcester...

39 at Fitchburg

 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

3/16 would work with any blocking or confluence, but nada

Yeah that would have been great to have. Thought we’d have some blocking this month  but doesn’t appear in the cards. I’m sure it will come in April. 

[jbenedet]

52/35

 

 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Cutter after cutter. Next week looks meh. EPS was right. 

Cant say that just yet. We can trend back to a snow event . Need the cutter to be weaker. 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that would have been great to have. Thought we’d have some blocking this month  but doesn’t appear in the cards. I’m sure it will come in April. 

Absolutely. 

Still an outside shot of something between 3/18-3/21 but we'll need some luck in clown range. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/03/spring-preview-this-week-by-mid-month.html

 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cant say that just yet. We can trend back to a snow event . Need the cutter to be weaker. 

Sure

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cant say that just yet. We can trend back to a snow event . Need the cutter to be weaker. 

No -NAO hurt this time of year

[GCWarrior]

3/16 would work with any blocking or confluence, but nada

AIs have something brewing for ski country. Where snow should be in March and April.


.

[weatherwiz]

Could see some showers with thunder develop around/after daybreak Wednesday morning on the nose of the advecting MUCAPE

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This time the trough is a little too sharp and just sends the low flying up the Great Lakes. NNE perhaps could grab something on the front end.

I get it…overnight runs verbatim show that.  
 

But do we know if that trough will actually be that sharp 8-10 days from now? we don’t.  That’s an easy fix at this lead…just like the run before 0z showed a hit.  If we were talking 4 days away, different story. 
 

I don’t really care if it cuts or not…bring the nice weather.  But the nice weather will be gone after mid week, and the pattern is conducive, so we watch of course. No worries either way. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I get it…overnight runs verbatim show that.  
 

But do we know if that trough will actually be that sharp 8-10 days from now? we don’t.  That’s an easy fix at this lead…just like the run before 0z showed a hit.  If we were talking 4 days away, different story. 
 

I don’t really care if it cuts or not…bring the nice weather.  But the nice weather will be gone after mid week, and the pattern is conducive, so we watch of course. No worries either way. 

Well, if you want a snowier solution, we better see some bigger changes at 12Z today. Otherwise that’s gonna take quite the overhaul to change the solution.

[UnitedWx]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cant say that just yet. We can trend back to a snow event . Need the cutter to be weaker. 

Need  to be weaker

[weatherwiz]

Gotta love this time of year  

BOS for tomorrow

6z MAV: 66

0z MET: 52

7z NBM: 62 

We've reached the time of year where the NAM is as useless as ever with temperatures (unless there is a front overhead/nearby) or we have CAD. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, if you want a snowier solution, we better see some bigger changes at 12Z today. Otherwise that’s gonna take quite the overhaul to change the solution.

Lol…if I had a dollar for ever time you, or others have said this this year…same shit every single time.  
 

There’s plenty of time for changes.  Again, not saying this will do that, just saying there’s more than enough time.   That time frame has potential..but it’s still out there. We watch. Everything this year has come closer in…we watch. 

[Typhoon Tip]

60!

warmest it's been since sometime in autumn

 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…if I had a dollar for ever time you, or others have said this this year…same shit every single time.  
 

There’s plenty of time for changes.  Again, not saying this will do that, just saying there’s more than enough time.   That time frame has potential..but it’s still out there. We watch. Everything this year has come closer in…we watch. 

..and if el Nino turns next winter into a non winter the same people will be complaining..

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

..and if el Nino turns next winter into a non winter the same people will be complaining..

Lol…ya that’s up in the air at this early point.  I’m not sold on a super Nino.  But we’ll worry about that next August/September.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

We just had a (planned) fire drill.  The difference between the feeling in the sunshine vs the shade was impressive.

Buh bye snowpack

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We just had a (planned) fire drill.  The difference between the feeling in the sunshine vs the shade was impressive.

Buh bye snowpack

Even the piles left here are quickly dwindling in this heat.   62 here

[SouthCoastMA]

57.7 here, might be nearing my max temp potential for the day. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…if I had a dollar for ever time you, or others have said this this year…same shit every single time.  
 

There’s plenty of time for changes.  Again, not saying this will do that, just saying there’s more than enough time.   That time frame has potential..but it’s still out there. We watch. Everything this year has come closer in…we watch. 

This isn’t something that is just within reach, this is a whole significant pattern change… It’s completely different in my opinion. And if you read my previous post, I said we better see some big changes at 12z today. It’s about 7ish days out. Big difference from 10 days out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Tooooorrrccchhhh!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

That is a nasty nasty BD on the NAM... has Boston plummeting to the upper 30s on Wed ... 24 hour ahead of the main front.  

It's probably got boundary layer lag bias.   It's the same reason why it can't warm the BL sufficiently at this time of year in general - today, etc..; they've sort of designed a model that over assesses the Ekman stuff. 

That said... it's also hard to argue BDs in eastern NE at any time of year, let alone f'um March.  

[SouthCoastMA]

About 50% of the yard is bare..and the backyard still had some areas with 6-7" this morning. It will all be a dream by tonight