March Madness

[Typhoon Tip]

21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been pushing more of a 'melt and mud' season for the time being.   There's a higher ceiling than that.  However, in deference to the fact that every month since last October has successfully targeted this region of the continent for disproportionate cold relative to the whole hemisphere, it's hard to imagine this warm up performing at the higher end - just based on that unmitigated persistence.   If that present Euro-modeled 564+ dm thickness surge makes it inside of 84 hours on guidance, fine...  

I'll tell yeah  ...wouldn't it be interesting to see a 70s transporting warm front run over this snow pack though?   

Bump for the ( learning impaired + asshole)/2

 

[DavisStraight]

6 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

I'll take 45 and rain if it reduces these snow banks. . I want my two way streets back. Enough of this shit.

I had a truck totalled due to high snowbanks, not this year, early 2000s. I was inching out on a blind corner and some guy came around the blind corner and slid on ice and TBoned me.

[Great Snow 1717]

Nice steady snow in Methuen..good snow growth...bordering on moderate at times!

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nice steady snow in Methuen..good snow growth...bordering on moderate at times!

Same

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Like I said the other day…2012 isn’t happening. Even NNE was past mud season for that. That was a unicorn for mid March.

It’s definitely going to get tainted at the surface at times even with the big anomalies aloft. I don’t think anyone expected 5+ days of 65-70+. I just think we’ll get a day or two in there where we can get more of a W component…especially SoP where the boundaries like to hang up in Wor county.

Could be a dew day in there before the cold front comes through to end the warm stretch. That would eat some snow. 

"I don’t think anyone expected 5+ days of 65-70+"

The exception being one renowned exaggerator.

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Same

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Hey everyone, i am putting out a call for season-to-date snowfall totals for anyone who has them, including anything that fell today, March 1st.

You can DM me or tag me.

I'll have that out this week, thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z eps aifs are still really consistently warm though. Supposedly it’s the best guidance. We’ll see. Still a week out though…seems like we’ve been following it for weeks. 
 

 

Cuz you guys are not seeing the trees always looking at the end of the forest 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cuz you guys are not seeing the trees always looking at the end of the forest 

Huh

[Typhoon Tip]

The indices for the mid month would allow for a warmer look than the operational runs are really committing to over these last couple of cycles

No one‘s failing to see any fucking trees. There are some people that are ignoring the tea leaves in lieu of any solution that looks like or placates/enabling your friggin psychosis with winter and getting model dopa hits  ha

It may be that the operational runs are more right than the index sometimes that happens

To reiterate for the 18th time, I wouldn’t go much more than a melt or mud season onset for the time being.  

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Huh

Movie joke.

Not often Bristol County Mass is a region wide depth leader March 1

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The indices for the mid month would allow for a warmer look than the operational runs are really committing to over these last couple of cycles

No one‘s failing to see any fucking trees. There are some people that are ignoring the tea leaves in lieu of any solution that looks like or placates/enabling your friggin psychosis with winter and getting model dopa hits  ha

It may be that the operational runs are more right than the index sometimes that happens

To reiterate for the 18th time, I wouldn’t go much more than a melt or mud season onset for the time being.  

Hey board Psychologist I got some dope for you . Chill out big boy it was a joke 

[Ginx snewx]

Oh and the real dopa 1.25 new

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is interesting NoP later this week. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey board Psychologist I got some dope for you . Chill out big boy it was a joke 

I doubt it's a joke for a lot of you... 

 

[met_fan]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh and the real dopa 1.25 new

Not sure a flake fell here

[Typhoon Tip]

Well, in any event ...  first day of Meteorological spring.   Time of the year when the streets can start steaming while it is snowing.. more so toward mid month+ but we're gettin' there.  

As I pointed out earlier, the indices are giving numerical values that have correlated to some impressively warm departures in springs of the past.  However, the operational models ( save maybe the 00Z CMC) are not expanding their solution to fill that gap.  They're coming out with solutions that are 50 (GFS) or 70% (Euro).  

I have to say, I don't really have a problem with that limited idea.  The PV is decidedly on our side of the NP/hemisphere... These overnight ensemble means are showing a rather extraordinarily deep signature out there between the 15th and 20th anchored around the Canadian archipelago - granted that's a long ways off, during a spring month no less doesn't lend a lot of confidence/stability expectations, but they all three have it.   

Pure speculation, but that being there (if/when...) likely compresses the gradient and keeps the atmosphere fast, as well as chillier from the GL-NE at those latter times.  We'll see.  

[Snowcrazed71]

4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Wintah is ova

 

Next three days is noise; not the signal.

 

We are let out; and it will be earlier than last year with +NAO state.
 

 

Yes, it's definitely heading in the spring direction. But it's not completely over. Not just a wish in my brain but there are are some tricks still up the sleeve of old man winter. Once we get past that warm weather in the beginning of next week there is going to be a downturn in temps that could also coincide with a storm. Not saying you're wrong and I'm right, but also not saying you're right and that I'm wrong. Makes sense?

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is interesting NoP later this week. 

Let’s get a mid-month icestorm. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Ice fishing party out on the Connecticut River above the Turner Falls dam.
There’s gotta be close to 18 inches of ice!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s get a mid-month icestorm. 

Last week, I thought we could sneak in one decent event this week, but I guess not. I’m just hoping we get one last hurrah mid month and then we sit back smoke a cigar and call this a season.

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, met_fan said:

Not sure a flake fell here

Somehow still snowing here 

[HIPPYVALLEY]